A new study was published Tuesday with the latest projections for future coronavirus transmission in the United States. The takeaway seems to be to get used to some aspects of social distancing, which could extend into 2022.
Five researchers from Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health collaborated on the paper, published in Science Magazine, a peer-reviewed academic journal. They examined two similar coronviruses, not to be confused with COVID-19, and how those strains were transmitted in conditions of different seasons, immunity by infection, and cross-immunity by related viruses that cause colds.
They saw a recurrence of the virus as inevitable, all variables considered.
The limiting factor for its spread however, was an exceeded capacity for those who need critical medical care.
"We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 [COVID-19] will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022," the article read.
The authors additionally pointed out that more long-term studies were needed and surveillance of the virus will be necessary until at least 2024. It also said the intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 “unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.”
The paper acknowledges the push against prolonged social distancing measures due to economic impacts.
In the United States, the President and state governors have sparred in recent days over the question, how soon?
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These conversations use time scales of days or weeks, as opposed to this paper’s look at years when discussing a return to normal life.
"Our goal in modeling such policies is not to endorse them but to identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches," they wrote. "We do not take a position on the advisability of these scenarios given the economic burden that sustained distancing may impose, but we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the healthcare system that is predicted if distancing is poorly effective and-or not sustained for long enough."
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