Minimum wage hike approaches likely Senate rejection

— Short-term funding for the federal government after the current funding bill runs out in October.

— Federal funding for water projects.

Unlikely

— Minimum wage increase.

— Immigration reform.

— Renewing extended jobless benefits.

— New gun regulations.

— Tax reform.

Uncertain

— Additional funding for the federal Highway Trust Fund, which is critically low on cash (current funding bill expires in September).

— Other appropriations measures for items such as the Affordable Care Act.

Associated Press

The push by President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats to raise the federal minimum wage seems ready to join the parade of issues that will be buried in Congress but — Democrats hope — propels voters to the polls this November.

A bill by Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, would boost today’s $7.25 hourly minimum in three steps to $10.10 as soon as 2016 is widely expected on Wednesday to join the list of initiatives, such as immigration legislation and new gun restrictions, that the Senate has either rejected or declined to bring to a vote before the elections.

Though the minimum wage bill should win backing from nearly all of the Senate’s 53 Democrats and two Democratic-leaning independents, few if any Republicans are expected to join them, leaving them shy of the 60 votes needed to bring it to the floor.

Democrats are aware of its likely fate. But they also know that according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, women and young people make up disproportionate portions of the 3.3 million people who earned $7.25 or less last year. Both groups traditionally tilt toward Democrats, who will seek to use the issue to bring them to the polls this fall as they fight to retain their Senate majority.

“It’s a powerful motivator for voters in the Democratic base who are a focal point of Democratic efforts to turn out voters in the midterm elections,” Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin said.

Senate Republicans have scant political incentive to support the measure. The GOP’s business allies oppose the increase, saying it drive up employers’ costs.

Republican lawmakers have buttressed that argument with a February study by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which estimated the $10.10 increase, while raising wages for 16.5 million low-paid workers, would eliminate around 500,000 jobs.

To counter Democratic arguments that they are clueless about today’s harsh economic realities, Republicans say the priority should be finding ways to create jobs with steps like reducing taxes and regulations on companies.

“You can try to wave a magic wand and artificially” increase wages, said Republican pollster David Winston. Instead, he said, the GOP is reaching out to voters “who’d like to be earning more money and really think the economy needs to be turned around.”

Both sides’ constituencies oppose compromising on a lower figure, including the AFL-CIO, which backs an increase, and the National Federation of Independent Business, which opposes one. That makes a bipartisan deal even less likely, at least before the elections.

“This is largely seen as a campaign action, and not an effort to legislate” minimum wage changes, said Scott DeFife, top lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association.

The pressure for congressional action is further reduced by the states — 21 have minimum wages above $7.25. Five have enacted increases so far in 2014, and 29 others are considering boosts. By law, workers covered by both the federal and a state’s minimum wage are entitled to the higher amount.