The Skagit River Bridge is a forgettable steel structure to drivers whizzing past on I-5.
But Thursday’s collapse of the span just before the busy Memorial Day weekend closed part of the highway and sent businesses and government leaders scrambling to minimize the potential economic hit — especially cross-border business from Canadians, who use I-5 as their main corridor to the United States from British Columbia.
“We do a lot of business out of Vancouver,” said Ken Kettler, president of Tulalip Resort Casino about 25 miles south of the collapsed bridge. Canadians account for about 20 percent of the 370-room hotel’s occupancy.
Te economic impact will depend on how long the I-5 segment is broken, how much time is added to trips and how many trips will be avoided because of the inconvenience.
David Ellis, a research scientist at the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, said the sudden bottleneck illustrates “how often we take for granted this transportation infrastructure we have out there.”
The Whatcom Council of Governments, a regional planning group, suggests the bridge’s collapse could have broad effects on tourism and trade.
Nearly 30 percent of cross-border traffic last year was Canadians crossing the Skagit River, or 1.9 million vehicle trips, the council estimates. And about 70 percent of cross-border truck trips—equivalent to $14 billion in exports and imports last year—end south of the Skagit River.
Those trucks carry computer parts, vehicles, wood, iron and steel into British Columbia and bring back fish, aircraft components and finished goods.
Before the bridge’s collapse, an average 71,000 vehicles crossed it daily, including about 8,400 truck trips. Now, all traffic is being diverted indefinitely.
Detouring traffic will mean congestion on those alternate routes and delays for drivers.
“It can ultimately have an impact on the price of consumer goods because it costs more to get them to the final point of sale,” Ellis said.
After the 2007 collapse of Minnesota’s I-35 West bridge over the Mississippi River, the state Department of Transportation estimated it reduced the state’s economic output by $113,000 per day and cost bridge users $400,000 a day in travel time and higher operating costs.
Ellis said the Minnesota bridge’s average daily traffic was about twice the volume on the Skagit River Bridge, with a similar mix of truck and auto vehicles.
“You’re looking at roughly $200,000 per day in costs to road users,” he said.
The cascading effects of a bridge closure fall disproportionately on the trucking industry and freight-dependent sectors, including agriculture, construction, manufacturing, wholesale and retail.
Federal regulations require truck drivers to take a 10-hour break after 11 hours of driving. Unexpected traffic congestion and detours can easily throw a wrench into tight delivery schedules.
But Seattle economist Dick Conway was skeptical about early conclusions of a significant economic impact.
“People are pretty resilient and make adjustments,” Conway said. “If it’s critical for the businesses to get their goods into the malls, they’ll drive farther or sweat out the bypass or drive at night.”
David Davidson, of the Border Police Institute at Western Washington University, isn’t as optimistic. He predicted a “substantial decrease” in travelers from Canada this summer.
Leisure and hospitality businesses south of the Skagit River will see fewer Canadian customers, he said. That could cause a significant hit to sales-tax revenues for areas south of the bridge.
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