How will race impact Atlanta's mayoral election?

Atlanta has had an African-American mayor since 1974, among the longest current stretches of any major U.S. city. Norwood, leading in the polls and the only white candidate among the front runners, could end that run.

For months, the leading candidates have largely sidestepped the issue of race. That changed last week, when a memo by a little-known group called the Black Leadership Forum struck a lightning bolt. The memo’s authors expressed concern about losing the mayor’s office to Norwood and urged African-Americans unite behind the black candidate the group considered best equipped to beat Norwood: City Council President Lisa Borders.

All five candidates mentioned in the e-mail — Borders, Norwood, state Sen. Kasim Reed (D-Atlanta), Jesse Spikes and Glenn Thomas — denounced that part of the memo. But the controversy brought into the open the issue of race, often a taboo topic in Atlanta.

“(Can Norwood win) is a question looming in the black community,” said Jim Welcome, publisher of Newsmakers Live, a predominately African-American group that received the memo as part of a political analysis on the race. “Is the city not going to elect a black mayor?”

A place to succeed

Atlanta long has been seen by many African-Americans as one of the best places for blacks to succeed, in part, because of the city’s leadership. Aaron Turpeau, who helped distribute the memo, said some African-Americans are worried about issues — such as blacks getting fewer city contracts — if a white candidate is elected.

“(We’ve) seen progress and a level of support (under black mayors),” Turpeau said. “(We) have enjoyed the leadership of the black administrations and we question change.”

Some observers, both black and white, cite several factors that favor Norwood.

Matt Towery, a former state representative whose consulting firm has polled the race, expects Norwood to end up in a runoff because he doubts any candidate will get more than 50 percent on Nov. 3. “Her chances ... will be determined by the runoff turnout, which based on historical trends would be a stronger white and female turnout, both of which work to her advantage,” said Towery, who runs the firm Insider Advantage.

The moment may be right for Norwood because voters may be looking for change. Over the past 18 months, Atlanta has furloughed police officers and raised property taxes to ease a budget crisis. Many residents worry about the city’s direction — particularly about crime — and Norwood has tried to tap into the angst.

“We’ve got to get the city safe,” Norwood says repeatedly at debates and forums.

Voter dissatisfaction has helped propel white candidates to mayoral victories in majority African-American cities such as Baltimore, Cleveland and Gary, Ind., said David Bositis, a researcher and author of several books on African-American politics.

In Atlanta, there’s precedent for white candidates to win citywide. In 2001, Cathy Woolard defeated Michael Julian Bond in a runoff to become council president. And there’s Norwood, who represents the entire city on the council and has won two citywide campaigns. She bested two black candidates in 2001, winning 60 percent of the vote in six majority African-American city council districts. She was unopposed in 2005.

A history of service

For about two decades, Norwood has worked with neighborhood groups, many of whom are African-American, and she is counting on their support on Election Day.

Most polls show Norwood is holding her own among black voters. One done by Insider Advantage earlier this month found one of five Atlanta voters support her.

Others see potential landmines for Norwood.

Some question the commitment black voters have for her, citing the 2008 Democratic primary. “We will have to wait and see if Mary experiences the same dynamics as Hillary Clinton did when her African-American supporters moved over to (President) Obama,” said Phyllis Fraley, a longtime public affairs consultant and former speechwriter for Maynard Jackson, Atlanta’s first black mayor.

New demographics

And while the city’s demographics have changed, the change may not translate into votes. The percentage of white residents has increased since 2000, but there’s little change in the percentage of white registered voters. About 37 percent of Atlanta’s registered voters identify themselves as white. The majority, 50.5 percent, still describe themselves as black, although the percentage has dropped by 5.5 percent since 2001.

Some black voters said they will support an African-American candidate this fall.

Southwest Atlanta resident Sabrina O’Neal, who is black, is not convinced a white candidate can win this year. She asked a friend one recent morning who she supports.

“The black guy,” the African-American woman said, referring to Reed. “I vote for my folks.”

The Norwood camp is banking on potential voters like Sylvia Johnston, an African-American woman who lives in Mozley Park and has a Norwood sign on her lawn. Johnston said Norwood has been more responsive than black elected officials to problems like trash on abandoned properties.

“If we can elect Obama, then we can put Mary Norwood in,” said Johnston.

With no candidate holding a commanding lead, Borders, Norwood and Reed have vigorously appealed for votes among all racial groups as well as the city’s influential lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community. Borders has been more willing to discuss race, saying Atlanta is “largely inattentive” to the subject. Reed, who’s highlighted Atlanta’s diversity when asked about race, plans a speech on the topic this week.

Norwood has preferred focusing her public safety message. Spikes and other candidates have attacked Norwood’s record, arguing she is part of the Atlanta bureaucracy that’s responsible for many of the city’s troubles.

The true test of Norwood’s chances will come in places like The Final Cut barbershop on Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. It’s in city council district 10, an overwhelmingly African-American area in which city elections have traditionally been decided. Shirley Franklin won her largest share of votes here, 5,753, in 2001, the first of her two victorious mayoral campaigns.

On a recent Friday, the folks there said race won’t be a factor for them, but they thought it might be for others.

“Race is always going to be a factor,” said customer Bishop Brown, 43. “Will it be the predominate factor? Probably not. But it will be a factor.”

Sam Massell, the last white mayor, predicts race would be a major plotline in a runoff.

“The real battle will come in a runoff where you’ll have a black and white candidate,” said Massell, mayor from 1969 to 1973 and now president of the Buckhead Coalition. “That’s when the fight will be.”

The Jackson factor

Another key factor in the race could be the absence of the late Maynard Jackson, the city’s first black mayor and political powerhouse. Jackson was the common denominator in electing the string of black mayors, says Bob Holmes, a retired political science professor at Clark Atlanta University. Holmes said contrary to some beliefs, Jackson didn’t run a traditional “political machine.”

“His machine was a politics of personality. Maynard wanted to be a referendum on himself,” said Holmes, the author of “Maynard Jackson: A Biography,” scheduled for release in September.

Jackson was able to handpick his successors, said Holmes. Jackson recruited Young, Bill Campbell and Franklin, Holmes said. And in 1989, when he couldn’t find a candidate, Jackson ran again — and won.

“He was a political Godfather,” said Holmes.

The 2009 campaign is the first seriously-contested mayoral race without Jackson, who died in 2003. Young and some of Jackson’s political allies have sided with Reed, who managed both of Franklin’s campaigns, but the mayor has yet to publicly endorse a candidate.

Towery said the election will test whether voters are ready to turn the page. “The question will be: Is the old Jackson/Young/Franklin political machine still strong enough to push African-American voters out for either Borders or Reed?,” Towery said. “I don’t think even the leaders of that former machine can answer that question right now.”

In predominately black southwest Atlanta, Reed seems to lead the yard sign race, but several blue and white Norwood signs are sprinkled among them. A broad mix of campaign signs can be found in more racially-mixed neighborhoods like East Lake, Kirkwood and Midtown. In largely white neighborhoods like Buckhead, where Norwood lives, her campaign signs dominate.

You won’t find many of Borders’ signs in Buckhead.

Borders’ campaign is focused on improving the economics of the city. The council president says Atlanta is a “tale of two cities” — one wealthy, one poor — and she’ll try to close the gap in part by pushing business leaders to increase wages for low-income workers.

Reed, the state senator, is zeroing in on public safety and on the city’s pension crisis. He touts the diversity of his backers.

“You know what I like about the group of people joining this campaign?,” Reed said at a press conference last month. “They’re white, they’re black, they’re Latino, they’re brown, they’re gay, they’re straight, they’re from all over the city.”

Norwood offers a frequent response to questions about race.

“I say we all come in our packages. This is the one I’ve got,” the petite Norwood said of herself to a mix of laughter and applause at one forum.

Norwood seems confident of diverse support though she expresses it indirectly. She recounts her ease with different groups around the city, reeling off the quickest routes from one end of Atlanta to the other. She’s often one of the few white faces in the crowd at neighborhood meetings and events in southwest Atlanta.

At a recent community meeting on crime mostly attended by African-Americans, Norwood smiled as she handed out fliers detailing the agenda.

She stayed to the end.