If you're growing weary of metro Atlanta's late-spring heat wave, a new report isn't likely to give you much comfort.
The summer will likely be warmer and drier than normal over most of Georgia, state climatologist David Stooksbury said Tuesday.
"Summer is the most difficult season to forecast for the Southeast," Stooksbury said in a news release.
"The El Niño ... gives atmospheric scientists good guidance on what weather to expect during winter and early spring," Stooksbury said, but it has little effect on temperatures and rainfall during the summer.
"One of the best indicators of climate over a period of several weeks is persistence," he said. "Persistence means that the current climate pattern will continue for a period of time. Since Georgia has been warmer and drier than normal since March, the persistence outlook is for Georgia to remain warmer and drier than normal for the next several weeks."
Stooksbury said the state's drought conditions contribute to the above-normal temperatures.
"Drought and warmer-than-normal temperatures go together and typically reinforce each other," he said. "Dry soils mean that more energy from the sun heats the soil and the air above it."
Stooksbury said the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, "is expected to be more active than normal," which could provide some relief from the drought if tropical storms move across Georgia. "Unfortunately, atmospheric scientists do not have the ability to forecast how many of the storms will make landfall," he said.
Channel 2 Action News meteorologist David Chandley said Tuesday he's hopeful the state could get a soaking from a tropical system this summer.
"We are long overdue for a nearby tropical storm or hurricane to bring us heavy rain," Chandley said. "Even a weak tropical system can bring several inches of rain for a large area of our state."
Chandley said Tuesday that despite drought conditions in south Georgia, the northern half of the state is faring reasonably well.
Most of metro Atlanta is in the abnormally dry to moderate drought category and stream flows are low, Chandley said, but the major lakes are relatively unaffected. Lake Allatoona was at 839.86 feet above sea level Tuesday, just a fraction under full pool of 840 feet. Lake Lanier was at 1,069 feet, two feet under full pool of 1,071.
Even with the lack of rainfall in recent weeks -- and not a drop in the last 11 days -- Atlanta's official rain gauge at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport has recorded 21.93 inches of rain so far this year, a deficit of just 1.43 inches.
Though areas of Georgia south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Waynesboro are in a "severe" drought, according Stooksbury, most metro Atlanta counties are only "moderately dry." Exceptions are the southern suburbs, which Stooksbury classified as being in a "moderate" drought.
"For the most part, water resources should remain adequate for municipal and industrial use through the summer," Stooksbury said last week. "Most water systems in Georgia have the capacity for a drought lasting less than a year."
As for outdoor watering restrictions, all of the state remains under the Georgia Water Stewardship Act, which went into effect a year ago. The act restricts daily outdoor watering of lawns, shrubs and trees to between 4 p.m. and 10 a.m.
Outdoor water use for purposes other than the watering of plants, such as power washing or washing cars, remains restricted to an odd/even schedule, with odd-numbered addresses allowed to use water on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sunday and water use by even-numbered addresses on Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays.
Meanwhile, temperatures in metro Atlanta climbed into the 90s for the ninth consecutive day on Monday, and Channel 2 meteorologist Karen Minton said that string will likely continue throughout this week, with only a slight chance of any storms to cool things down.
Minton said metro Atlantans can expect the weather to be "continued hot, with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms mainly over northeast Georgia mountains."
Atlanta’s official high on Monday of 93 was 7 degrees off the record for the date set in 1943.
Atlanta’s normal high for early June is 85 degrees.
Elsewhere across Georgia, highs on Monday included 100 in Columbus and Alma, 103 in Albany and a scorching 105 degrees in Valdosta.
Minton’s forecast calls for highs in metro Atlanta of 93 daily through Thursday, then 92 on Friday and Saturday, with no more than a 20 percent chance of an afternoon thunderstorm on any given day.
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