Amy Rickman ticked off the things she can't afford if her husband, U.S. Army Cpl. Joshua Rickman, misses a paycheck.
"Car note, phone bill, groceries, gas, utility bills, credit card payments," said Rickman, 24, who is in college and lives with her parents in Newnan to save money.
Each item on that list represents a business that will indirectly bear the impact of a government shutdown. Multiply that impact by the roughly 46,000 military and civilian employees in metro Atlanta, and you're looking at an overall economic fallout on the order of $66 million a week, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's not a huge hit, given the size of the regional economy, but not negligible either.
The economic ripples from a shutdown will touch hundreds of businesses, from restaurants that rely on federal workers to people hoping to buy a home through the Federal Housing Administration. And the intensity of the ripples will grow over time, economists said.
Government contractors could add to the ranks of idled workers, depending on how long the shutdown lasts and the specifics of their contracts.
“Without appropriate full-year funding decisions on national security programs, we will face costly schedule delays and breaks in production that will increase overall program costs and interrupt the delivery of critical equipment to warfighters," Lockheed Martin, which has a plant in Marietta, warned in a written statement.
Simon Lee, manager of Thaicoon & Sushi Bar near the CDC in Atlanta, said federal employees are the bulk of his business.
“A shutdown will affect us a lot, especially at lunch because nearly 80 percent [of customers] are from the CDC,” Lee said. “If they don’t go to work, they definitely aren’t coming for lunch.”
Rajeev Dhawan, an economist with Georgia State University, said that a government shutdown of only a week or two will have only a slight impact on the economy. People will still be buying groceries and paying their rents, even if they have to dip into savings or run up credit card balances to do so.
But if the shutdown extends much beyond that, the impact could become troublesome, Dhawan said. People could run out of savings and perhaps have to liquidate some assets.
Throughout the shutdown, the region's 4,000 active duty military personnel will continue working, as will many civilian workers whose jobs are considered essential to maintain public safety and health. All of them will receive back pay once the shutdown ends.
Furloughed civilian employees will not receive back pay unless Congress passes a bill specifically to provide those funds. If that doesn’t happen, their families and the local economy will permanently lose the value of the wages they did not receive.
It is unclear how many civilian workers will be classified as nonessential but reports have suggested that, nationally, it will be about 40 percent. In metro Atlanta, that translates to a permanent loss of about $24 million for each week the shutdown lasts.
In contrast to 1995, when the last shutdown happened, Dhawan noted, the economy is hardly booming.
"The system is much more fragile now," he said.
And yet another divisive fight over federal spending is looming ever closer: the question of whether to raise the national debt ceiling. If lawmakers haven't resolved the current impasse over the budget by the time that day arrives, it could have a serious negative impact on the stock market and interest rates, Dhawan said.
"It could make for a very shaky financial situation," he said. "A person trying to get a mortgage could have to pay higher interest rates."
The shutdown will be yet another blow to Atlanta's battered real estate and mortgage industries. Many new loans are backed by the Federal Housing Administration; with no workers manning FHA's helm, local mortgage lenders are anxious about stalled loans.
Georgette Mooneyham, first vice-president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Georgia, said the timing couldn't be worse. The FHA's monthly insurance premium is set to rise on April 18th. The shutdown will prevent buyers from taking advantage of the current lower rate, she said.
"This is bad timing," she said. "We don’t need to add any more fuel to the fire, that is for sure. We're already sizzling."
However, some people believe the shutdown will actually have a positive economic impact.
Julianne Thompson, state coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots, said that while the group was not hoping for a shutdown, sending home thousands of federal workers will help the federal bottom line.
"It will save some money for a few days, and that adds up," Thompson said.
On the other hand, furloughed federal workers will immediately become eligible to apply for unemployment benefits. The Georgia Department of Labor is gearing up to process their applications -- possibly even renting outside facilities and opening special offices to handle the federal workers, officials said.
“We have plans in place to provide services to assist furloughed federal employees throughout Georgia,” said state Labor Commissioner Mark Butler.
Delon Barfuss, retired from Georgia State University’s biology department, said he believes lawmakers are right in aggressively trying to balance the budget, but he’s concerned that some may be asking for too much too soon.
“All of us want to balance the budget, but they want to [do so] with one swallow,” said Barfuss, of Marietta. “It’s like a starving man trying to get his health back all at once.”
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