DeKalb County residents will see no tax hike or major service cuts through at least the first six months of the year, a financial situation that could very well shift by summer.
The County Commission voted 4-3 Tuesday to a $559 million budget that has minor changes from Chief Executive Burrell Ellis’ proposed spending plan. The budget is 3.5 percent higher than last year.
Despite the hold-steady approach that also puts $7 million more into county reserves, critics and even supporters of the plan cautioned that what now appears to be a win for for the administration could become a mess by June.
The commission traditionally revisits the budget then, once property tax values are available. By then, it will be clear if Ellis was being optimistic or on target by projecting just a 5 percent drop in values. Last year, he projected a 4 percent drop when values plunged 12 percent. The $36 million hole in the budget was plugged by a 26 percent tax hike.
“The evidence indicates we should be conservative about our revenue estimates,” said Commissioner Jeff Rader, who dissented with Elaine Boyer and Kathie Gannon.
“As we go forward, in the middle of the year, we will have spent money at a rate we can’t sustain and that will increase the impact of whatever changes we'll have to make," he added.
The commission’s vote comes after two months of member pledges to cut from Ellis’ original $547 million proposal. The budget increase comes from a $12 million surplus from 2011.
Commissioner Lee May, who was among those calling for reductions, said that surplus helped convince him to agree to the CEO’s recommendation. That came only after some changes, though.
For instance, the commission agreed to spend $2 million from the fire department’s "rainy day" fund to buy air packs and replace devices firefighters complain are malfunctioning. For the third year in a row, the board also called for eliminating the public safety director post, a $149,000 savings.
Among other big adjustments were adding $512,000 to countywide road paving and slicing about $434,000 in savings from building leases.
But the bulk of the surplus -- $10 million -- is going to cover employee health claims that a consultant did not predict and county staff did not warn about, despite months of overspending.
“There is clearly a projection problem,” said May, who heads the budget committee. "We have got to be better at that."
Ellis did not attend the meeting but released a statement after the vote saying he was pleased at the decision.
“We’re happy to come to the conclusion of a very difficult process that resulted in the majority of the CEO’s recommended budget being adopted,” Jibari Simama, Ellis' chief of staff, said.
Some residents who had followed the process weren’t as happy or as convinced that changes aren’t coming. Noting a Tuesday report that the metro Atlanta market’s home prices over the last 12 months dropped 12.8 percent, some worried out loud that those losses will mean big changes at midyear.
“Budgeting debates are not accomplishing a whole hell of a lot as far as I can see,” said John Steinichen, a retiree who is a regular at county meetings. “Why do we insist on being optimistic when there is really no basis for that?"
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