The regional transportation sales tax just lost a couple of I-285 interchanges.
Or a new northeast MARTA stop or a half dozen major arterial widenings -- or whatever else the region would have chosen to build with $235 million.
Figures released Wednesday by the state economist show that the region will have $235 million less to spend on transportation from a 10-year sales tax than experts thought they might under draft projections a year ago. That means the elected officials whittling down the region's proposed project list this summer will have even more cutting to do: With $22.9 billion in desired projects to choose from, they will have only $6.14 billion to spend on projects of regional significance.
The list will go before voters next year in a referendum, along with a 1 percent sales tax to fund them.
For commuters and officials following discussions on the tax, the hit to expectations may be even greater.
The figure often mentioned in discussions and speeches has been $7 billion or $8 billion. The difference is enough to pay for an entire new suburban light-rail line.
"It feels like less money, and it is less money," said Robert Brown, a member of the state Transportation Board from Decatur. He is not on the "roundtable" of mayors and county commissioners who will choose the projects but is watching with interest. "This is going to require us to focus," he said, to bring in a list where voters at the end feel they got something for their money.
The state economist who prepared the estimates, Kennth Heaghney, said the $235 million change resulted from a slightly worse outlook for the economy, as well as having time to do more exact work for this year's projections. State officials last year stressed that that preliminary estimate was only a draft to give planners a ballpark idea of where they were headed.
The projection he released Wednesday comes out to $8.5 billion over 10 years -- in today's dollars. Some of those dollars, however, would come in and be spent years from now, after inflation has made them worth less. Adjusting for inflation brings their value down to $7.2 billion.
Finally, the region only gets 85 percent of the tax's proceeds to spend on its regionally significant wish list; 15 percent goes to counties and towns where the tax was raised for spending on even the smallest transportation projects of their choosing. That leaves the region with $6.14 billion.
No one could say what the lower revenue estimates mean for any particular project, since the roundtable cutting down the list has just begun its work. The man heading that group, Norcross Mayor Bucky Johnson said little had changed and it would not make it more difficult to sell the list to voters.
"I don’t think so. I mean it’s going to be hard enough," he said, laughing. What’s a billion dollars among friends?"
State Transportation Planning Director Todd Long said in an email: "I certainly believe the numbers are not a huge change overall. The actual collections are still nearly $8.5 billion over 10 years. That is the investment people are talking about, and they have the right to talk about."
The Atlanta Regional Commission is assisting the group of 21 mayors and county commissioners that will choose the project list this summer.
ARC Chairman Tad Leithead called the projections "appropriately conservative," adding that "they assume the economy continues to be in a relatively sad state of affairs," whereas he believes it may recover more.
Leithead said the 15 percent of the money that's being spent on local projects was still important to voters and should not be discounted. Many such projects were suggested by local governments as candidates for the region's wish list but were rejected by the state as ineligible because they were too local. When it comes time to publicize the tax vote, those projects can be part of the message.
"Those local projects have a definite impact on the voters," Leithead said. "I think it's important to make that distinction. That 15 percent is not going away."
Still, Leithead said, putting the figures in black and white underscore a harsh reality. "You can't do it all," he said.
By the numbers
There is no way to tell what projects the region will choose or cut now, but here are examples of what some projects cost. Project costs are still being refined.
- Eastern I-285 at eastern I-20, interchange improvements: $94.6 million
- Western I-285 at Greenbriar Parkway, new interchange: $35.4 million
- MARTA heavy-rail extension from Doraville to Norcross: $146 million
- Ga. 120/Roswell Road from Bridgegate Drive to Timber Ridge Road, widening: $72 million
- Buford Highway from Sawnee Avenue to Ga. 347, widening: $28 million
- Five Forks Trickum Road from Killian Hill Road to Oak Road, widening: $10 million
Sources: Atlanta Regional Commission and Georgia Department of Transportation
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