College students depending on HOPE could see the amount of their scholarship remain the same next year, according to projections released Friday.
The amount of scholarship money students receive can change each year under new rules lawmakers put in place to keep HOPE from going broke. But new estimates from the Georgia Student Finance Commission show the state can afford the same payouts next year by tapping into reserves to supplement the funding provided by the Georgia Lottery.
That means, for example, a HOPE recipient at the University of Georgia again would receive $3,181.50 a semester. It's too soon to say what percentage of tuition that would cover and how much students will have to pay out of pocket.
This year's award equals 90 percent of the 2010-11 academic year tuition rates.
While the recommendation is that scholarship values remain unchanged, the final decision rests with lawmakers, said David Lee, director of strategic research and analysis for the commission, which administers HOPE.
Gov. Nathan Deal will review the recommendations and "continue to monitor the health of the program before he suggests a course of action to the Legislature," spokesman Brian Robinson said. The governor wants the scholarship to cover as much as possible, while remaining solvent for future recipients, Robinson said.
The lottery funds HOPE, but it can't keep up with soaring enrollment and tuition. More than 256,000 students received an award last year, while less than 200,000 received it a decade ago. Lawmakers revamped the program because it was on track to run out of money by 2013.
HOPE used to pay all public college tuition and provide some money for books and fees if students maintained a 3.0 grade-point-average. Now only the state's most accomplished students, about 10 percent of recipients, get full tuition awards. For the rest, the scholarship amount depends on lottery revenue. No one gets money for books and fees.
But the scholarship's financial problems continue. For the current fiscal year, the commission projects the state will spend about $924.9 million on HOPE and pre-kindergarten, but the lottery is expected to only provide about $846.1 million. Reserves will provide the rest and the reserve account will drop to about $501.9 million.
The state is projected to spend about $934 million during the 2013 fiscal year on HOPE and pre-k, while the lottery is anticipated to provide about $853 million. Again, reserves will cover the difference.
It's too soon to say what will happen in 2014 and beyond, but it is possible that scholarship payouts will drop, Lee said.
"We still have an underlying problem, and that is demand is outstripping what the lottery deposits," he said after a presentation to the commission.
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