LOS ANGELES – Newt Gingrich starts a two-day swing through the Atlanta area Friday, as his chief opponents for the Republican presidential nomination are making it known that they will not cede his old home turf.
Gingrich, a former Georgia Congressman, will hold four public rallies and a fundraiser, bringing along high-profile allies like former presidential contender Herman Cain and members of Georgia’s congressional delegation.
Front-runner Mitt Romney campaigned last week in northeast Atlanta, and fast-rising former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is scheduled to appear in Cumming on Sunday. In addition, a Super PAC backing Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, has bought television ad time to attack Gingrich and Santorum’s campaign plans to advertise in Georgia as well.
Georgia’s 76 delegates are the biggest prize on March 6, known as Super Tuesday, and the Peach State will rival Ohio as the most hotly contested state that day.
Georgia is crucial to Gingrich’s hopes for a campaign resurgence after a string of poor primary showings.
“I can’t imagine how he continues, has any realistic chance of winning the nomination ... if he can’t carry Georgia,” said Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University. “If he can’t win here, where can he win?”
Rick Tyler, a former Gingrich aide who now helps run the Winning Our Future Super PAC campaigning on his behalf, argued that Georgia is not necessarily a make-or-break vote.
“Of course it’s important, and he’s from Georgia so he needs to win that state in order to avoid a lot of negative stories about him,” Tyler said. “But I just don’t think there’s any state like that. In the end it’s about how many delegates you have at the convention.”
In addition to Friday and Saturday, Gingrich has another Georgia swing planned Feb. 28 through March 1. Gingrich has three offices and 12 paid staffers in the state, the biggest ground effort the campaign has mounted since South Carolina – the only state Gingrich has won thus far. Neither the Gingrich campaign nor Winning Our Future has indicated whether it will purchase television airtime in Georgia.
Gingrich is focused on the South, and his campaign argues that of the 10 states voting on Super Tuesday, Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma provide the best opportunities for victory -- with his old home state at the top of the list.
A poll conducted for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution last week by Mason Dixon Polling and Research showed Gingrich with 43 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 29 percent and Santorum with 12 percent. But that poll was conducted before Santorum’s three Feb. 7 primary victories that have buoyed his campaign. A Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll later in the week showed Gingrich at 35 percent, Santorum at 26 percent and Romney at 16 percent.
Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, the other remaining Republican presidential hopeful, trailed the field in both polls and is focusing his strategy mostly on caucus states.
"I think Gingrich’s problem right now in Georgia is the same as everywhere else," Abramowitz said. "On the one hand you’ve got Mitt Romney coming in with a lot of money, and on the other hand you’ve got Santorum coming in with momentum, and conservative Republican voters are trying to decide which is the best alternative to Romney."
Gov. Nathan Deal, Gingrich's highest profile Georgia supporter, said Gingrich is "certainly a good spokesman, I think, for the conservative wing of the party." Deal will not appear with Gingrich this weekend -- he said he was not able to adjust his schedule in time -- and said he was "hopeful" Gingrich would win Georgia.
“I don’t think we can predict who is going to win the nomination now depending on the real division that appears, certainly up to this point, in terms of delegate counts,” Deal said. “But I think he has a better than even shot on it.”
Looking to cement his campaign for the long haul, Gingrich spent most of the week in California, bouncing around the state to eight fundraisers while mixing in public speeches and a trip to the San Diego Zoo. Gingrich's California political director, Mike Schroeder, said the events brought in about $2 million for Gingrich's campaign coffers.
On Thursday Gingrich visited Los Angeles' Koreatown area to speak with Asian American supporters and gave a speech at a Jewish luncheon in Beverly Hills. Both appearances were geared primarily toward foreign policy.
At a news conference after the Asian American event, Gingrich said he was pleased with the California swing: "I hope to leave with affection, votes, fond memories and money, all of those things coming together," he said.
Georgia is not the only state on Gingrich's mind. He said he will compete in Michigan -- Romney's boyhood home -- and other states beyond his Southern stronghold, as he reiterated his vision of a lengthy nomination fight.
"This thing has got a wild rhythm that resembles riding Space Mountain," he said. "I have been the front runner twice. I suspect I’ll be the front runner again in a few weeks."
Jeremy Redmon and Aaron Gould Sheinin contributed.
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