Recent headlines over Joe Biden’s sexual allegation has dented his favorability rating but he has actually widened his national lead over Donald Trump in the race for president.
A new Monmouth University poll finds Biden leading Trump by a 50-to-41 percent margin. Another 3 percent say they would vote for an independent candidate and 5 percent are undecided. This represents a slightly wider lead for the Democrat than in previous Monmouth polls.
The poll was conducted by telephone from April 30 to May 4, 2020, with 808 adults in the United States. It has a 3.6 percent margin of error.
“Biden’s lead continues to build even as overall opinion of him remains soft. It’s possible that recent headlines about a sexual assault claim may have had an impact on his favorability rating, but most voters still see this election mainly as a referendum on Trump,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
When U.S. Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan is added to the mix as a Libertarian candidate, Biden gets 47 percent, Trump gets 40 percent and Amash gets 5 percent.
Fewer than one in five voters have an opinion of Amash.
“Overall, there is not as much of an appetite for a third option as there was four years ago,” Murray said. “It’s too early to tell whether Amash will have an impact but if this election ends up being as close as 2016, even a small showing can have a crucial impact.”
Most voters (86 percent) have heard about Tara Reade's allegation that Biden sexually assaulted her in his U.S. Senate office in the 1990s. The poll shows respondents are divided on the allegation's validity — 37 percent say it is probably true, 32 percent say it is probably not true, and 31 percent have no opinion.
Credit: AJC
Opinion breaks sharply along partisan lines. More Republicans say the allegation is probably true (50 percent) than not true (17 percent) while more Democrats say is it is probably not true (55 percent) than true (20 percent).
Independents are more likely to feel that the allegation is true (43 percent) rather than not true (22 percent), while 35 percent have no opinion either way. Overall, men (39 percent true and 29 percent not true) are slightly more likely than women (35 percent true and 34 percent not true) to believe the charge against Biden.
Among voters who say the sexual assault allegation is probably not true, the vast majority (79 percent) support Biden over Trump (14 percent) in the presidential contest. Among those who feel it is true, 59 percent back Trump but 32 percent still support Biden.
Credit: AJC
Among those who have no opinion on the allegation’s validity, 45 percent support Trump and 43 percent support Biden.
“We don’t know what impact this allegation will have in the long run. For some voters who believe the charge, it is still not enough to override their desire to oust Trump. The outlook is murkier for those who don’t have an opinion on it. This group includes a number of Democratic-leaning independents who could potentially be swayed if this story grows in importance,” said Murray.
On the positive side of the ledger for Biden, he received a boost last month with the endorsement of his old boss, Barack Obama. The former president remains broadly popular among American voters with a 57 percent favorable to 34 percent unfavorable rating.
“The real value of having Obama on the campaign trail is not about voter persuasion but to build enthusiasm among the Democratic nominee’s supporters. And if the campaign remains largely digital through the fall, Obama might even help Biden generate media attention that he couldn’t get otherwise,” said Murray.
Some states have already expanded vote by mail access for this year’s elections and others are considering it in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Just 18 percent of the nation’s voters say that they regularly vote by mail now, but half say they are either very (31 percent) or somewhat (20 percent) likely to cast their ballot by mail this fall.
There are also partisan differences in reported intent to cast a mail ballot this year. A majority of Democrats (66 percent) say they are at least somewhat likely to do this, while about half of independents (48 percent) and one-third of Republicans (35 percent) say the same.
Credit: AJC
Trump himself registers a negative 40 percent favorable to 53 percent unfavorable opinion, which is more negative than prior polls.
The incumbent had a 42 percent favorable to 50 percent unfavorable rating in April, a 46 percent to 49 percent rating in March, and a 44 percent to 53 percent rating in February.
Biden’s rating has also slipped over the past two months. The Democrat currently has a negative 41 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable rating, which is down slightly from even splits in April and March.
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