'American Idol' bits: ranking all 11 judges, commercial prospects of top 3

1. Simon Cowell (seasons 1-9). He was the groundbreaker, the man willing to tell the truth to bad singers who thought otherwise. He horrified and fascinated America at the same time in 2002, quickly becoming a pop culture name brand. His Carrie Underwood prediction (despite his relative ignorance about country music) is now legendary. By season 8, though, he had his eyes on his own show and was truly checked out by season 9 minus Paula. But there's no denying he was unique and no other judge could match his confidence in his own opinion (and ego).

2. Harry Connick Jr. (seasons 13-15). Some critics find him overbearing when he tries too hard to be funny or insufferable with his music lessons. But he truly cares about the contestants and works hard in his limited time on the dais to dispense usable advice. He loves precision and proper pitch at times over pure emotion (see Quentin Alexander) but he has a solid eye for talent and would have actually been a fine third judge in the early years instead of Randy Jackson.

3. Paula Abdul (seasons 1-8). She is really more a choreographer than a singer, despite her chart success a quarter century ago.  Vocally, she makes J Lo seem like Celine Dion in comparison. But "Idol" didn't have a lot of choices back in 2002 for judges. Musicians worth their salt at the time wouldn't lend their name and reputation to some unknown reality singing competition. What a joke! So Nigel Lythgoe and Simon Fuller ended up with Paula, who was probably there for name recognition between two unknowns. As expected, she was no singing expert. But she was sweet, innately softening Simon's verbal blows with kindness. People sometimes blamed her occasional loopiness on meds or drugs or alcohol. Sober or not, she brought a silly charm, a wink and a nudge that "Idol" shouldn't be taken as seriously as it was. In a way, I am ranking her third simply because she was part of what helped make the show the biggest show of the 2000s, more so in my mind than Randy.

4. Jennifer Lopez (seasons 10-11, 13-15). She gets debits for creating the line "I've got goosies!" and often turned into a mindless cheerleader sandwiched between Steven Tyler and Randy Jackson seasons 10 and 11. But with Keith and HCJ, she upped her game, doling out surprisingly smart, fair critiques and recommendations with only the occasional "goosie."  I really do like her now as a judge (though some viewers think she can be overly harsh on the women.)

5. Keith Urban (seasons 12-15) He was far less effective season 12 having to duck catcalls between Nicki and Mariah. But once he had grown ups like JLo and HCJ on board, he became far more appealing. His bro-mance with HCJ is amusing and while he is now the resident softie among the trio, he can occasionally dispense a decent bon mot. And for the ladies, he's great eye candy any day.

6. Kara DioGuardi (seasons 8-9) Her entered the show with serious bonafides as a songwriter and early on appeared to be smart and smart-alecky. But Simon Cowell clearly resented her presence and season 8, Paula Abdul may have thought Kara was going to take her place. Kara, in the face of criticism, seemed to wilt under the pressure and her ability to critique waned over time. And that bikini appearance during the season 8 finale? Super awkward!

7. Randy Jackson (seasons 1 to 12) - He gets credit for the chemistry he had with Paula and Simon. He let the two of them goof around. He was happy to sit back and let Simon's ego shine. And when he had to deal with new judges, he would just throw in jokes to try to relieve the tension. As for his ability to "judge," he would rely on catchphrases (most notably, the infamous "You're in it to win it!") rather than provide anything a singer could tangibly use to improve. And he sure liked to use the word "pitchy dawg!" So yes, we the regulars got bored of him mighty quickly and wished he had left when Paula did. Then he tried to "mentor" season 13 and yes, I place that word in quotes for a reason.

8.  Nicki Minaj (season 12) - Many regular viewers of "Idol" found Nicki offensive and downright rude, especially to Mariah Carey. She was the closest "Idol" has ever had since Simon left to a Simon. But her charm offensive fell flat and viewers fled in massive numbers. Plus, she helped gather the worst group of talent "Idol" has ever had. So though I kind of liked her at times, she was a major factor in making that season unbearable.

9. Steven Tyler (seasons 10 and 11) - In the edited audition rounds, Tyler could say some hilarious stuff. But during the live shows, his vocabulary was so limited, we began holding drinking games every time he uttered "Beautiful!" He barely provided usable critiques and ultimately added little to help the contestants.

10. Mariah Carey (season 12). She never met a run-on sentence she didn't like. She could ramble on and on and on to the point I stopped listening. Sure, there might be a point somewhere in her 150-word soliloquies but is it worth trying to decipher? Plus, her passive-aggressive behavior toward Nicki Minaj clearly indicated her displeasure having to share the stage with another diva.

11. Ellen DeGeneres (season 9) She came on season 9 as the outsider, the woman who could voice what the average viewer was saying to the screen. The problem: we can hear our own voices. We don't need them repeated by America's nicest celebrity ever. Paula Abdul was Gordon Ramsay in comparison. Useless? As an "Idol" judge, yes. And she'd be the first to admit it.

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Credit: Rodney Ho

Credit: Rodney Ho

In the flurry of media stories about the pending burial of "Idol," it's easy to forget we still have a season 14 competition. Tonight, it's three songs: a best off previously sung already, one picked by Simon Fuller and a potential coronation song. Only the top two will get to perform during the 9 p.m. one-hour show. Need spoilers? Here are a few.

This is one of the closest top threes in memory for me. I am having a difficult time deciding who will be cut Tuesday because honestly, they are all worthy contenders. I will guess that Nick goes home because I have to predict somebody.

Here is my power ranking for the top three with my take on their chances of post "Idol" success under Scott Borchetta:

1) Jax. This is more wishful thinking given how close this will be among the top three but she brings the most interesting, dynamic viewpoint of the final three and is the most viable pop star.

2) Nick. Nick has the WGWG factor and he's undeniably consistent vocally. Will predictability equal votes? He has improved his stage presence. Still, he could carve out a nice Daughtry-like career if he gets lucky.

3) Clark. I know the readers of this blog are Clark fans based on the polls. He will probably make it ahead of Nick and may still take home the crown but I'm with Scott Borchetta: I don't really want him to win. He'd be hard to turn into a star.  His tastes are not modern by any sense of the word. And as Melinda Doolittle on Reality Check says, his soul never matches his eyes. That's frustrating.