That Georgia voters will make a difference in next year's Republican primary race for the White House is still no sure thing. The point is that, suddenly, no one is betting against the idea.
On Friday, three presidential hopefuls – U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, plus New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie – will address GOP delegates to the state convention in Athens.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich will be eating Georgia barbecue later this month. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has penciled in July 31 for the kickoff of his campaign here.
Then there’s the fact that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and four other competitors — Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and businesswoman Carly Fiorina – will be in Atlanta for the Aug. 6-8 gathering of Redstate.com, an event put together by WSB Radio’s Erick Erickson.
The timing is important. Erickson’s event steps all over the once-sacred Iowa straw poll that has long served as a first weeding of the GOP field.
On Wednesday, Secretary of State Brian Kemp knocked three times on his wooden table to ward off any jinx. “You can feel it,” Kemp said. “There’s a lot we still can’t control here. But it does seem like it’s coming together.”
Others have had a hand in the effort, but no one has done more to make Georgia matter in the 2016 cycle than Kemp, who has stitched together an assembly of Southern states that have scheduled their primaries for March 1.
So far, the so-called “SEC primary” will feature Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Virginia. Kemp has had his setbacks. Mississippi refused. Arkansas has punted and will take up the issue again during a special session of its legislature later this month.
But Alabama could join the pack as early as next week. The state is crucial to Kemp’s plans.
Only four states are allowed nomination contests earlier than March 1: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Those states that vote before March 15 would have their delegates split proportionately among the top finishers – which usually makes such contests less attractive to cash-starved candidates in search of killing blows.
But a March 1 combination of Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia creates a quartet of overlapping TV markets – in Chattanooga, Huntsville, Atlanta, and Columbus – that could make an investment of time and money more affordable.
Among both Democrats and Republicans, Georgia has had a reputation as a place you go to gather up campaign cash, not spend it. Likewise, choosing sides in primaries has been a sleepy process, posing little risk to local politicians or their networks. (One notable exception: The Democratic avalanche that came down on U.S. Rep. John Lewis in 2008 for his support of Hillary Clinton. He switched to Barack Obama.)
In the 2012 Republican campaign for president, favorite sons Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich provided handy excuses for Republicans reluctant to be seen hopping aboard the Mitt Romney train.
But a Georgia in play requires risk-taking on the part of locals. This week, state Sens. Jeff Mullis, R-Chickamauga, and Brandon Beach, R-Roswell, sent a letter to their GOP colleagues (on official stationery, no less) drumming up membership for the Bush drive in Georgia.
A Jeb Bush who passes on Iowa, wins New Hampshire, but loses South Carolina would need a victory in the conservative heart of the GOP. “They know they’ve got to play here,” said Kemp, the secretary of state. “Bush has got to be thinking, ‘I’ve got to survive to get to Michigan and Ohio the next week, and Florida the next week.’” (Kemp has refrained from endorsing any candidate.)
Personal connections and networks become crucial. A chief strategist for Walker, the Wisconsin governor, is Gary Marx, former executive director for Ralph Reed’s Georgia-based Faith and Freedom Coalition. Chris Schrimpf, an Ohio aide to Kasich, was once a Gov. Sonny Perdue staffer.
Ted Cruz’ best friend since their Princeton debating days, then Harvard law school, is David Panton, who is now a major figure in Atlanta investment circles.
Chris Christie has House Speaker David Ralston in his corner. Mike Huckabee, who won the Georgia primary in 2008, has state Rep. Sam Teasley, R-Marietta, author of one of this year's religious liberty bills.
After this weekend’s gathering in Athens, other campaigns are likely to catch up, but currently the most extensive grassroots organization among GOP presidential hopefuls in Georgia belongs to Rand Paul.
Ashley Bell, the Gainvesville radio host and former Hall County commissioner, is part of Paul’s national operation. State Reps. Scott Turner, R-Holly Springs, and John Pezold, R-Columbus, were on the stage, standing behind Paul, when the Kentucky senator formally entered the race.
One of Paul’s D.C. staffers is Natalie Burkhalter, whom you probably have never heard of. She’s the daughter of former House speaker Mark Burkhalter of Johns Creek. The father speaks well of his daughter’s boss.
“If I had to line up behind someone, it would be him,” Mark Burkhalter said. He’s a breath of fresh air.”
When a state is in play, these are the threads that matter. Sometimes more than cash.
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