The campaign disclosures for state candidates began trickling in this week, offering a glimpse of their bank accounts in the final weeks of the race. Here's a few things we're watching as the latest numbers roll in. (The federal disclosures, we should note, are expected next week.)
Can Gov. Nathan Deal bounce back? Democrat Jason Carter stunned Georgia's political world when he raised more than $2 million in the second quarter, outpacing the Republican incumbent's fundraising machine, which had collected roughly $1.3 million. That led the governor to intensify his fundraising efforts. He pledged to lawmakers on a conference call that he "won't leave anything on the table" and urged them in a letter to pony up. Deal's camp is tight-lipped, but some insiders suggest he could surpass $3 million for the quarter, which spans from July and September. Carter's allies, meanwhile, are lowering expectations on his figures.
Will GOP incumbents solidify their leads against down-ticket Democrats? The Democrats who fill out the ballot below Carter have, with a few exceptions, struggled to gain any fundraising traction. But party operatives hope some recent developments breathe new life into their campaigns, and point to a September poll that showed tight races down the ballot. The drip-drip of ethics news has raised questions about Attorney General Sam Olens' handling of a bombshell memo, and Democrat Greg Hecht has eagerly seized on it. And Labor Commissioner Mark Butler is facing new pressure from his rival, Robbin Shipp, over the state's nation-high jobless rate. The numbers could hint at whether Democrats have capitalized on the openings.
How much more outside spending should we expect? Independent committee reports will also start trickling in this week, and they will help gauge the level of outside interest in statewide races. Our AJC colleague James Salzer has an early taste of one surprising detail: The Koch brothers reported no new contributions to candidates or Republican causes since the spring.
How much will gubernatorial candidates leave in the tank? Libertarian Andrew Hunt has hardly made a ripple in campaign fundraising. But his long-shot candidacy, recently buoyed by a tea party endorsement, threatens to force the governor's race into a runoff by depriving both Deal and Carter of a majority vote. Deal and Carter may decide to hold some funds in reserves in case of a December runoff. Or donors could make that decision for them, by designating their contributions for that contest. We'll start picking up those hints this week.
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