Georgia Democrats hyping their potential and Republicans pushing for more minority outreach have new data to bolster their cases -- but the urgency is debatable.
Absent some intervening event, the slow, steady march of demographic change will drive whites down to 40 percent of Georgia's electorate by 2060, according to a new joint analysis by the liberal Center for American Progress and conservative American Enterprise Institute.
National Journal's Ronald Brownstein crunches the numbers for three Republican states that could shift toward the Dems: Arizona, Texas and Georgia. Along with
, here's what Brownstein finds for the Peach State:
The big change will come from Hispanics (forecast to increase their share of eligible voters by 1 percentage point in each of the next three presidential elections and ultimately to reach 10 percent by 2040) and from Asians and others, who will edge up more slowly but are projected to reach 5 percent by 2024 and 7 percent by 2040.
Whites were about 60 percent of eligible voters last year, and the Republican margin of victory at the top of the ticket remained steady between 7 and 8 percentage points from 2012 to 2014. Even if we put aside 2016 and look at 2020 as the possible Democratic resurgence date, the minority vote will have only replaced 3 percentage points of the white vote.
Any scenario for a Democratic comeback in the next decade requires them to win more white votes. Here's Brownstein again:
The other is Democrats' inability to capture even a modicum of white voters. No Democratic presidential nominee from 1992 to 2008 won more than the 32 percent of Georgia whites that Bill Clinton attracted in his first race, according to exit polls; Obama carried just 22 percent in 2008 and probably even fewer in 2012 (when, as in Texas, his showing in the state slightly deteriorated although the minority share of the vote grew).
In 2014, two plausible Democratic candidates with impeccable family pedigrees—Senate candidate Michelle Nunn and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jason Carter—each failed to win more than one-quarter of Georgia whites, and both lost by solid margins. Still the sheer magnitude of the state's demographic transition—and the fact that the change is driven mostly by African-Americans, who have proven more reliable than Hispanics in both their turnout and their Democratic loyalty—keeps the state in sight for Democrats looking to expand the presidential map.
***
Your vacation calendar for 2016 is now set, courtesy of the Associated Press:
The Democratic National Committee says the convention will be held the week of July 25, 2016, one week after after Republicans meet in Cleveland.
***
President Barack Obama's request for an Authorization for the Use of Military Force against the Islamic State will get a skeptical eye on Capitol Hill. Here's what some of the Georgia delegation had to say at first blush in prepared statements.
U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga.:
"Today the president submitted his request to Congress for authorization for the use of military force against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and its affiliates. Given the complexity and seriousness of this issue, Congress will need to carefully review this proposal to ensure any authorization meets the military's needs in order to successfully fulfill its mission to degrade and defeat ISIS. As a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, I expect to participate in frank discussions regarding the best strategy for confronting the threat posed by ISIS."
U.S. Rep. Austin Scott, R-Tifton, who serves on the Armed Services Committee:
"ISIL poses a serious threat to the United States and our allies. While I am pleased the President has taken a step towards protecting our country, his proposal will require significant scrutiny and consideration. As a Member of the House Armed Services Committee, I look forward to fully reviewing his request for an AUMF and his strategy for combating terrorism."
U.S. Rep. David Scott, D-Atlanta, said in an interview that he hopes to strengthen the measure by broadening it -- removing an end date and allowing U.S. forces to go into more countries if necessary:
"The other point is if you say we are just going to fight in Iraq or just fight in Syria, all they've got to do is pick up your baggage and more to another place. ... So we have to be very clear and I think we have to spell it out based on what the entirety of the group is, and you can say like ISIS, like al-Qaeda, like Boko Haram, all these groups are radical Islamic terrorists and that is where the declaration of war needs to be."
***
This afternoon Obama will sign the Clay Hunt Suicide Prevention for American Veterans Act, a measure pushed by Isakson as the first measure of his VA Committee chairmanship. The Georgia Republican plans to attend a White House signing ceremony.
It will be the second law Obama signs this year.
***
Is the SEC primary already paying off? Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp pitched the idea of the regional March 1 primary to try to give Georgia and its neighbors more clout in the presidential nominating process. Potential Republican contenders Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush already visited last month to meet with politicians and hang with donors.
Now we have word that Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, another likely White House aspirant, will be visiting Atlanta on Monday. He's set to meet with moneymen in downtown Atlanta and shake some hands around town.
To be fair, Atlanta has long been a money mecca for prospective candidates, hot primary or no.
***
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says it ain't so, but residents of high-toned Daufuskie Island in South Carolina say the dredging of the Port of Savannah is chewing away at their earthly paradise. From the Savannah Morning News:
"Daufuskie is also facing increased beach erosion, which is believed to be due to the dredging of the Savannah River," reads the Daufuskie Island statement, which was distributed this month.
***
Supporters of electric vehicles are marshaling their forces, arguing that a proposed cold-turkey cut-off of tax credits for EV purchases is economically damaging. The move has become a part of the House transportation funding bill. From Morris News Service:
House Bill 122, sponsored by Rep. Chuck Martin, R-Alpharetta, proposes eliminating the current $5,000 state tax credit.
The groups that authored Wednesday's reports instead support House Bill 220. Sponsored by Evans Republican Ben Harbin, the bill would drop the credit to $3,000 or $2,000, depending on battery capacity, before it sunsets.
***
Democrats in Georgia's Senate have emerged as far more forceful critics of Gov. Nathan Deal's school-rescue proposal than their counterparts in the House. The caucus will unveil its own counterproposal on Tuesday built around the idea of community schools.
***
We have yet another battle over beer brewing in the Georgia Legislature. From the Athens Banner-Herald:
"The key part (of Senate Bill 91) is 'local ordinance,'" said Sen. Frank Ginn, R-Danielsville...
Current state law requires a 100-yard buffer around churches and 200 yards around schools.
***
The U.S. House on Wednesday unanimously approved a measure to award the Congressional Gold Medal to the Freedom Riders.
Supporters of a rewrite to the Voting Rights Act chose the occasion to re-introduce their bill, but its chances remain slim. From Roll Call's Emma Dumain:
But [Wisconsin Republican Rep. Jim] Sensenbrenner and his allies have a huge challenge ahead in mobilizing the kind of support necessary to advance their legislation.
Though he is a respected member of the House Republican Conference and was Judiciary chairman during passage of the last VRA rewrite in 2006, Sensenbrenner no longer has the kind of clout critical to moving the measure through the legislative pipeline. ...
About the Author
