Under Dan Quinn, the Falcons had never been more than a game under .500 – until this season, when they started 1-4. Only in 2015, when everything fell apart, had they been under .500 in the second half of a season, and then only for a week. They’re 4-6 now. Since winning the NFC championship Jan. 22, 2017, the Falcons are 15-14.
The temptation is to suggest this is a franchise headed in the wrong direction, that the unraveling that began with the lost 28-3 lead in NRG Stadium has continued apace. As someone who believes that coaching – more precisely the lack thereof – contributed mightily to the Super Bowl collapse and to the entirety of last season’s fizzle, I’m not about to suggest that Quinn and his staff are the second coming of Walsh’s 49ers. But I believe in being fair, and this seems a fair question:
Without Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, Ricardo Allen, Devonta Freeman, Andy Levitre and Brandon Fusco, how good should these Falcons be?
Neal, Jones and Allen were three of the Falcons’ four best defenders. The fourth, Grady Jarrett, missed two games. Freeman is a Pro Bowl back. Levitre and Fusco were starting guards. Jones has been activated and could play against the Saints on Thanksgiving; the others remain on injured reserve. Of the Falcons’ nominal regulars, 27.2 percent have missed a significant chunk of the season.
The belief here was that these Falcons would be 7-3 headed to New Orleans. That prediction didn't assume such a run of injuries. Had I known then what we know now, I'd probably have guessed they'd be 6-4. Even the deepest of NFL rosters – this one is, or at least was, pretty deep – can't absorb so many absences.
With both safeties lost, the burden on the cornerbacks has increased, and Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford stand revealed as liabilities. With both guards lost, the offensive line has been stripped of any cohesion, and tackles Jake Matthews and especially Ryan Schraeder had horrid first halves against Dallas on Sunday, which was one reason the game was 9-6 headed to the fourth quarter, whereupon the Cowboys scored on three of their four possessions. (That defense again.)
With a weakened O-line and without Freeman to complement Tevin Coleman, the Falcons’ capacity to score big has been lessened; with a weakened defense, the Falcons cannot stop anybody when it counts. We say again: The last-gasp home losses to the Saints and the Bengals in September changed the season. What seemed possible was no longer realistic. The difference between 3-1 and 1-3 was immense.
And yet: If the Falcons win in Cleveland and beat Dallas here, they’re 6-4 having won five in a row, and their holiday date in NOLA isn’t such an abject mismatch. (The 9-1 Saints are favored by 13 points.) No amount of injuries can explain the no-show against the Browns, and there was nothing to separate the depleted Falcons from the Cowboys – except a field goal at 0:00. Even if you’re working without some guys you expected to have, you’ve got to maximize those who remain.
Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders posted a revelatory stat Sunday: Under Quinn, the Falcons have blown 12 fourth-quarter leads. This counts postseason, which includes the most infamous blown lead in the history of the sport. Only the Chargers, with 14, have done worse over that span, and that transplanted team hast just now gotten good. Quinn's Falcons should have made the playoffs in 2015, should have won the Super Bowl on Feb. 5, 2017, and should have beaten the Eagles in January to reach another conference final. That's an unbroken run of "should haves."
Under Mike Smith, Matt Ryan was uncanny at the end of games. From 2010 through 2012, he had 13 fourth-quarter comeback wins. He has had seven in three-plus years under Quinn, only two since the Super Bowl. He has none this season. This isn’t to say Ryan hasn’t been great – he was MVP in 2016; he leads the NFL in yards per game – but there have been fewer Matty Ice Moments. Is that bad luck? Is it that his defense always gives it back? Is it symptomatic of a flawed bigger picture?
Even in its weakened condition, should a team with the league’s leading passer and receiver be two games below .500 with games at New Orleans, Green Bay and Carolina remaining? Aren’t we seeing what happened against Brady and Belichick – a mighty effort undone by a wobble at the end – happening more and more? Should we label that a Quinn Thing?
After three seasons of mostly good health, Quinn’s Falcons saw fortune turn. They’d have had to make a lot of things go right to overcome their personnel losses, and that’s not what this team does. The Falcons don’t outflank people. They’ve been favored in seven games this season; they’re 3-4. They’ve been the underdog three times; they’re 1-2.
I’d never call Quinn a bad coach. If Freeman doesn’t whiff on the blitzing Dont’a Hightower, he’s a Super Bowl winner in Year 2. But the signature he placed on this franchise – fast and physical and yadda yadda – is in danger of being scratched out. His bold team has become an assemblage that leaves just enough plays unmade to lose. Injuries put a ceiling on what these Falcons could reasonably expect, yes, but injuries don’t quite excuse 4-6.
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