There’s a reason some baseball observers still believe Mike Foltynewicz is destined to be a closer. For one thing, he has closer-type stuff. For another, he’s among the least economical starters in the business.
Foltynewicz is averaging 99.8 pitches over five starts. He has reached the sixth inning once. His ERA is outstanding – 2.77, the best among Braves starters and better than Syndergaard, Strasburg, Lester and Greinke. He’s eighth among National League pitchers in strikeouts. But Foltynewicz has faced no more than 23 batters in any start. Over those five turns, he’s averaging barely five innings per turn. Here’s the reason: He’s average 4.5 pitches per hitter, more than than any other in the majors.
Strikeout pitchers tend to run higher pitch counts. Foltynewicz’s pitch count is high even for a strikeout pitcher, and it’s half a pitch more per hitter than last season. Put another way, that’s 4.5 pitches more every time through the lineup – which is the reason Foltynewicz hasn’t yet made through any lineup three times in one start.
On a team with a solid bullpen, six strong innings would meet requirements. The Braves’ bullpen is … well, what’s the opposite of solid? Liquid? Gaseous? Foltynewicz was pulled Monday after needing 103 pitches to record 13 outs. The game was tied at 2. By the time these relievers got done, the Braves had lost 10-4 to Cincinnati, which entered the night 3-18.
This isn’t to suggest Foltynewicz can’t be a good starter. He has looked the part on many occasions. But even in a time where starting pitchers are working fewer innings by design, you’d still like your guy to get you through six. Foltynewicz’s walk rate is one per every two innings, which isn’t great but isn’t awful. But he tires early, and no wonder. He averages 19.19 pitches per inning; among the 99 MLB qualifying pitchers, only Yu Darvish and James Paxton average more.
At some point, the Braves must decide if Foltynewicz would be better-suited to working one inning than five. That’s not yet a question for today, but it could be by season’s end. Mike Sororka and/or Kolby Allard and/or Kyle Wright aren’t far away from the bigs, and it isn’t as if this bullpen couldn’t stand an upgrade. (Braves relievers rank last in walks, 26th in WHIP and 17th in ERA.) And Foltynewicz’s issue isn’t the quality of his pitches – just the quantity.
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