Of the Atlanta Braves’ three most recent victories at SunTrust Park, the winning run scored in the bottom of the ninth. Eight of their 32 wins – that’s exactly one-fourth – have come in their final at-bat. They’ve scored 100 runs – 36.1 percent of their total – in the seventh inning or later. They’re in first place for many reasons, this late-inning lightning is chief among them.
And now you’re asking: How does it keep happening? After his team rallied from four runs down to win on Johan Camargo’s ninth-inning home run Tuesday, manager Brian Snitker told reporters: “These guys never quit grinding out at-bats.” We can dismiss the “never quit” part as the sort of thing every manager says after such a victory, but the second part – “grinding out at-bats” – has resonance. Why are the Braves good at comebacks? A few reasons.
1. There aren't many holes in this lineup: The past three walk-off hits have been struck by Dansby Swanson, Charlie Culberson and Camargo – the shortstop, a utility guy and a fifth infielder who's playing third base everyday because the Braves lack better options. If you're an opponent, these are the Braves you'd most like to face in the ninth inning of a close game, which isn't to say these three are hopeless. Put Swanson, who's hitting .268, on the Mets and he'd look like Cal Ripken Jr. (The Mets' starting eight for the first game of Monday's doubleheader featured two men hitting above .250.) It isn't often the Braves go a full inning without sending somebody to the plate who has a fighting chance. Both their catchers can hit. Their second baseman has 14 home runs.
2. They don't strike out much: Swanson leads the team with 47 whiffs, which doesn't put him among the National League's top 25. Ozzie Albies has 46; nobody else is over 40. The Braves have the third-fewest strikeouts – and the second-best on-base percentage – among National League teams. You've heard managers stress the importance of Keeping The Line Moving; it's easier to do that when you put the ball in play. Per FanGraphs, the Braves are second-best in the league in strikeout percentage and BABIP (batting average on balls in play).
3. They're hitting more home runs: Last year the Braves were 13th in a 15-team league in homers. This year they're fourth. (There's your Ozzie Effect.) Putting the ball in play is nice. Hitting it over the wall is nicer still, especially when the game's on the line.
4. The NL East is a repository of iffy bullpens: The Braves surged from 5-0 down to win on Opening Day, Nick Markakis hoisting a walk-off homer in the ninth. That came against the Phillies, who hold the division's best bullpen ERA, which is only the NL's fifth-lowest. Every other East team is worse: The Braves are sixth, the Nationals ninth, the Mets 12th and the Marlins last. I'm among those who believe the Braves' relievers are varying shades of mediocre, but they're a darn sight better than, say, the Mets'. (Not to pick on that beleaguered club.) The Mets' past six losses – all in the span of a week – have been charged to the bullpen. Jacob deGrom has yielded one earned run, that on a Tyler Flowers homer, in three starts against the Braves and banked three no-decisions.
5. They have a 3-4 combo of lefty hitters who can hit lefties: Freeman is hitting .380 with an OPS of 1.099 against left-handers; Markakis is hitting .348 with an OPS of .911. In the seventh inning Tuesday night, Jerry Blevins – a lefty, though not lately an effective one – faced Freeman with nobody on and two out in the seventh. Freeman singled. Markakis doubled him home. Ask Philly fans, who spent nearly a decade watching garden-variety lefties defuse the 3-4 tandem of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, how frustrating that can be.
6. They're putting pressure on the defense: I'm hesitant to make too much of this, sabermetrics having rendered stolen bases something of a no-fly zone, but: The Braves are third among NL clubs in steals. They have 37. They're on pace to finish with 111. They had 77 over 162 games last season. Back in March, Freeman made a big deal out of how these Braves would be more aggressive, baserunning-wise, and they have been. But it's not steals so much as speed – Albies started a tying rally Monday with a bunt single – and timing. Freeman moving from first to second on Markakis' sac fly to right put the go-ahead run in scoring position that same inning. (Alas, Tyler Flowers and Preston Tucker struck out. That still happens, too.)
Here’s another factor I’m not sure how to quantify -- Snitker as a comeback manager. The Braves have 45 last at-bat wins in the two-plus years he has been in charge. That leads the majors. I’m pretty sure no managerial plan involves falling behind by four runs after six innings, but his teams do tend to stick to their business. And winning, like hitting, can be infectious. The more the line keeps moving, not just on a batter-by-batter basis but game-to-game and week-to-week, the more a team has reason to believe. There’s no fancy stat for that, unless this one applies: Take away the Braves’ last at-bat wins and they wouldn’t be in first place. They’d be 24-30 and getting ready to trade Markakis come July.
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