There are a lot of reasons for Georgia fans to be confident. Nick Chubb. Sony Michel. Malcolm Mitchell. Defense. But there are two reasons to wonder: 1) Saban, the Dark Lord, doesn't lose a lot; 2) Greyson Lambert, the Dogs' quarterback, was Montana-like against South Carolina and Southern, but, well, yeah.
Confidence isn't at a premium here. But at least Georgia won't be wearing black jerseys. I'll take the leap: Dogs win and cover 2½.
The last time the Death Star was an underdog
Institutes of Higher Learning (Class Optional)
North Carolina at Georgia Tech: The Tar Heels excel at academic fraud. The Yellow Jackets have merely proven to be frauds on the field. Jackets cover 7½.
Notre Dame at Clemson: The Tigers haven't played since a win over the remains of Bobby Petrino Sept. 17. So Dabo Swinney has had extra time to work on his game plan, which normally would lead me to pick the other team. But I'm just not feeling the Irish's young quarterback in Death Valley. Tigers win a pick 'em.
San Jose State at Auburn: Interesting factoid: The pace of Auburn's formally sped-up offense now ranks as one of the slowest, 98th in the nation, according to SportsSourceAnalytics, where I'm certain no employee has a date this weekend. But that and getting outscored 62-30 in two SEC games won't matter against San Jose State. The 20 is covered.
Mississippi at Florida: Enjoy the ride, Rebels. There's trouble coming in October and November. Gators go down in the swamp, Missy covers 7½.
Arkansas at Tennessee: Arkansas's Bret Bielema and Tennessee's Butch Jones are a combined 10-32 in games against Power 5 conference schools since coming to the SEC (hat tip: ESPN's Chris Low). So this is kinda like the SEC's Boston College-Wake Forest game. Vols covers 6½.
Louisville at N.C. State: The Wolfpack dismissed running back Shadrach Thornton after he hit a pedestrian with his moped and then left, and also because he already had three suspensions and two arrests and assaulted a female. So apparently N.C. State draws the line at scooter accidents. State wins but take Louisville and 4½.
South Carolina at Missouri: It's the Battle of Columbias, although with Missouri suspending quarterback Maty Mauk and Steve Spurrier just trying to make it upright to the next senior-discounted Denny's Grand Slam, I'd take the Ivy's Columbia over either of these two. (Alas, they're at Princeton this week.) Roosters in a slight upset (2½).
Texans at Falcons: Julio Jones is on pace for 181 receptions, 2,347 yards, 21 touchdowns and 19 surrenders in the Middle East. If you need Roddy White, he'll be in the kitchen making a sandwich. Falcons cover 6½.
Cowboys at Saints: New Orleans is 0-3 for the first time since 2012, when Sean Payton was suspended for BountyGate. Payton has a similar incentive program this season but so far nobody has collected the $50 for making a tackle. Saints win but take Dallas and 5½.
Raiders at Bears: The 0-3 Bears began their strong playoff push this week by trading Jared Allen and Jonathan Bostic. They also would've traded Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis and Craig Kimbrel but the Braves beat them to it. Atlanta feels your pain, Chicago. Raiders cover 3.
Packers at Phony Niners: San Francisco is 0-3, Colin Kaepernick threw for 67 yards, four interceptions and two pick-sixes with two sacks last week and some 49ers fans are trying to sell their $2,000-to-$80,000 PSLs to other suckers at a discount. Everybody was so much happier when players were just getting arrested. Green Bay covers 8.
Jags at Colts: Andrew Luck has worse statistics (5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) than Blake Bortles (5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions). Well. It's clear SOMEBODY screwed up their first-round pick. Market correction: Indy covers 9.
Eagles at Natives: Update from Washington: Robert Griffin III still hasn't dressed for a game. Update from Philadelphia: Chip Kelly still hasn't coached one. Going with the upset: Washington (take the gift 3).
Alabama at Georgia: After nailing the Falcons' pick last week to move to 3-1, Lilly showed up for work this week with agent Scott Boras on her leash, demanding a new contract and a full column takeover. I countered with a Milk Bone and extra poop bags and reminded her winter is around the corner. She settled. This week, Lilly's choices were cheese'd pictures of Nick Saban and Mark Richt. She went to Richt's picture first, sniffed, then went left. UPSET! Lilly picks Bama.
"I like to play blackjack. I'm not addicted to gambling. I'm addicted to sitting in a semi-circle." -- Mitch Hedberg
Last week: 8-5 straight up, 9-4 against the line (big money).
Bottom dollars: 34-16 straight up, 26-23-1 against the number
Sack Schultz update: Our overall leader is "Hammer63" of Alabama who is 51-9 and clearly cheating. Last week's winners were John Saunders and Robert Blake at 14-1. You can still enter for great weekly and end-of-season prizes. Go to