President Trump and his fellow Republicans are claiming victory, insisting that they have forced Senate Democrats to blink in their confrontation over immigration.
Well, they are 100 percent correct in that assessment.
Heading into the shutdown, the primary goal of Democrats was to win protection for the Dreamers. The goal of Republicans was to block protection for the Dreamers. And anyway you measure it, the Republicans succeeded; the Democrats failed. All the Democrats were able to wring from the deal is a promise that in the next few weeks, the Senate will debate and vote on an immigration reform package.
Now, that’s not nothing. It is entirely plausible -- not likely, but plausible -- that over the next few weeks, the Senate will be able to craft a bipartisan immigration bill that addresses the plight of the Dreamers and that gets the 60 votes needed to pass.
It won’t matter.
It won’t matter because the Republican caucus that controls the House of Representatives has no intention of welcoming 700,000 to 1 million Dreamers into full membership in the American family. That is antithetical to their perceived mission in Congress.
It won’t matter because House GOP leadership lacks the guts to withstand the accusations of “amnesty” and “traitor!” that would inevitably come from their hard-core, anti-immigrant, white-nationalist right.
It won’t matter because House Republicans know all too well that by their past actions and rhetoric, they have already guaranteed that the Dreamers will vote overwhelmingly Democratic, as will their children and eventual grandchildren.
It won’t matter because with the midterm elections just months away, and with the Democratic base angry and energized, Republicans will not dare to take a step that would anger and alienate much of their own base. Instead, their goal between now and November will be to inflame that base, and they know exactly how to do that.
For example, here’s an advertisement that Trump’s presidential campaign released today:
Most of all, it won’t matter because as that ad illustrates, Trump is incapable of making it matter. He lacks the work ethic and brains to painstakingly negotiate and force through an agreement, and he can’t bring himself to break the emotional bond that he forged with the anti-immigrant right through the campaign. And while occasional spasms of humanity may surge through Trump like hot flashes, causing him to blurt out words of sympathy for the Dreamers, in the end they are always overwhelmed by his basic, fundamental racism.
If Democrats want to help the Dreamers -- and they do -- they can’t do it by trying to twist the arms of Republicans who control every agency in the federal government. They’ll have to it do it by winning elections.
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