What’s happening in Washington is less a government shutdown than a government meltdown, with most of the heat generated by a conflict between two starkly different visions of immigration.
Let me propose what I believe to be a fair description of the GOP position on immigration, gleaned from statements by President Trump, congressional leaders and the conservative media:
1.) We need to build The Wall along our southern border.
2.) We should end efforts to attract immigration from a diverse group of countries through such programs as the diversity lottery, in favor of handpicked immigrants from more stable nations.
3.) The goal of diversity is itself a threat to the national character, and what was once opposition to illegal immigration has broadened significantly into opposition to legal immigration as well.*
4.) While Trump and other Republicans have at times expressed support for legalization and a path to citizenship for the 800,000 Dreamers, a substantial number of Republican backbenchers still view such a step as amnesty and would see it as a betrayal of the GOP base. Republican leadership may be willing to allow enactment of pro-Dreamer legislation, but only if its three other priorities are part of the deal. Even then, they may not have the votes or the guts.
To complicate things even further, conservative fears and sentiments about immigration that were once only hinted at are now being expressed much more openly and vigorously, as illustrated by this resentment-soaked harangue Thursday night from Tucker Carlson. With passions this inflamed, it’s hard to push people to accept compromise.
I agree with Carlson on a couple of points.
I agree that Trump's comments about shithole countries have clarified the debate and made it more honest, exposing some ugly truths. I also agree on the importance of discussion and of trying to figure out what the majority of Americans are thinking about these issues. The good news is that thanks to polls released this week by CBS News and Quinnippiac, we have some guidance on that.
For example:
"Overall, do you believe that legal immigration is good for the country or bad for the country?" (Quinnippiac)
Good: 89 percent
Bad: 7 percent
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"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling immigration issues?" (Quinnippiac)
Approve: 38 percent
Disapprove: 60 percent
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“Which comes closer to your point of view: immigration from diverse countries makes the United States better, or immigration from diverse countries makes the United States worse?” (Quinnippiac)
Better: 78 percent
Worse: 12 percent
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“Do you think that President Trump's recently reported comments on immigrants from certain countries are racist, or not?” (Quinnippiac)
Racist: 58 percent
Not racist: 35 percent
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"In general, do you think that immigrants from certain countries deserve to immigrate to the United States more than immigrants from other countries, or do you think the country an immigrant is from shouldn't matter?" (Quinnippiac)
Country matters: 16 percent
Shouldn’t matter: 76 percent
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“In general, do you favor or oppose allowing young immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children to remain in the country if they meet certain requirements such as going to school or joining the military, and not having a criminal record?” (CBS)
Favor: 87 percent
Oppose: 11 percent
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“When the U.S. government is deciding which immigrants to admit to this country, should priority be given to people from countries that are struggling with political and economic instability, or should priority be given to people from countries that are politically and economically stable, or should they be treated the same?” (CBS)
People from stable countries: 15 percent
People from struggling countries: 14 percent
Treat the same: 67 percent
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“Do you favor or oppose building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to try to stop illegal immigration?” (CBS)
Favor: 35 percent
Oppose: 61 percent
(Just 15 percent would support shutting down the government in a bid to force wall funding.)
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“From what you’ve heard or read, do you think the remarks about (Haiti and countries in Africa) were acceptable for a president to make, or not acceptable for a president to make?” (CBS)
Acceptable: 17 percent
Not acceptable: 73 percent
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Those numbers suggest that the Republican Party has put itself into a very dangerous situation. They have worked themselves into such an emotional, righteous lather on immigration, listening only to other voices from within their echo chamber, that they have lost sight of where the vast majority of Americans actually stand. Positions that they consider mainstream are in fact still viewed as extremist. And they are lashing themselves to a president whom a significant majority of their fellow Americans perceive as a racist who is pursuing race-driven policies, and that reputational stain isn’t going to be washed away very easily.
Looking at these and other polling numbers, it appears to be a massive, massive miscalculation.
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* Those conservative GOP priorities have taken legislative form in the Reforming American Immigration for a Strong Economy Act, or RAISE Act, sponsored by U.S. Sen. David Perdue of Georgia and U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas. That bill would cut legal immigration in half, end the diversity lottery and significantly reduce immigration from Third World countries, although the president would use a more colorful term. Trump has strongly endorsed the bill.
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