In his post-election press conference Wednesday, President Obama seemed neither chastened nor intimidated by the losses that his party had suffered. He expressed openness to negotiations with House Speaker John Boehner and incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, but noted that first, the two GOP leaders need to figure out what they want and what they can deliver from their oft-unruly members.
And he didn't seem at all inclined to put off an executive order ceasing deportations for illegal immigrants who have been otherwise law-abiding, productive members of society:
"What I'm not going to do is just wait. I think it's fair to say that I have shown a lot of patience and have tried to work on a bipartisan basis as much as possible. And I'm going to keep on doing so. But in the meantime, let's figure out what we can do lawfully though executive actions to improve the functioning of the existing system."
Among other things, that statement tells us that the White House can read polls too. The 2014 electorate was considerably older and whiter than America, and older and whiter than the 2012 electorate and likely the 2016 electorate. In 2012, 25 percent of voters were over 60, and 19 percent were under 30, a spread of six percentage points. In 2014, 37 percent were over 60, and just 12 percent were under 30, a margin of 25 percentage points. It was not a representative sample.
And even with that older, whiter electorate, 56 percent told exit pollers that they supported some way of providing legal status to illegal immigrants, while only 40 percent backed a policy of deportation. In effect, Obama is telling the Republicans that if they are bound by the obsessions of their base on immigration, he is not. And he will act accordingly.
He also seems to remember that even during the times when he had a clear mandate from voters and he held the upper hand, congressional Republicans carried out a stubborn, scorched-earth policy intended to deny him any victory or accomplishment. Now that the roles seem to have been reversed, with the GOP holding the advantage, he seems willing to play obstructionist just as they did.
Would an executive order on immigration inflame and enrage the GOP? Yes, but not that you could really tell. It's a party that is perpetually inflamed and enraged anyway. And by now, an older and wiser Obama has settled into the rhythms of his job, and over the past six years that rhythm has been set by GOP overreach and overreaction that is as certain as the tides.
A disciplined, united Republican Party that won power by presenting voters with a well-defined set of policy goals could cause Obama and his fellow Democrats a lot of problems and present itself as a viable governing option to 2016 voters. Obama looks at the GOP and doesn't see such a party. Even at its moment of triumph and vindication, he looks at the Republican Party and sees its weaknesses, and he is apparently willing to bet that those weaknesses will again prove to be his greatest advantage.
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