As someone on Twitter reminded me this morning, Mitt Romney carried the state of Georgia by eight percentage points in 2012.
Think about that:
This is a state that Romney carried easily -- a winning margin of more than 300,000 votes -- while he lost nationally by more than 5 million. In addition, 2014 is a mid-term election year when the GOP should have a significant turnout advantage, and when nationally the winds are blowing in the GOP's favor. Barack Obama's personal popularity has also never been lower. Given all that, you would think that Republican candidates in statewide races would be enjoying double-digit leads with barely two weeks left before Election Day.
Instead, they're fighting for their political lives, a position that I think they find shocking. As Erick Erickson writes at RedState: "Freak out!!!!!! At least that seems to be the GOP's reaction to the polling in Georgia." And consider what happened when David Perdue was asked for an interview by Michael Warren, a writer with the conservative Weekly Standard. As Warren reports, even with a presumably friendly writer, the Perdue camp "desperately" wanted to avoid talking about outsourcing:
"Before my brief phone interview with Perdue, a campaign staffer called twice to confirm that I wouldn't ask about the "outsourcing" comment. When I did, Perdue dismissed it as "right out of the Democratic playbook."
"They've tried it since Day One," he said. "It's not sticking."
The polls suggest otherwise. Only the most loyal Perdue Republicans still talk about winning outright on Election Day. More likely is that neither Perdue nor Nunn will win 50 percent of the vote (there's a Libertarian party candidate running as well), and the race will proceed to a January 6 runoff. Republicans like their chances in the runoff, even with a flawed candidate. Georgia swing voters may not be in love with Republicans anymore, but they're not enamored with Democrats, either.
I think that's probably right. I keep saying that Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter are the underdogs in the race, and they still are. But the margin that separates "underdog" from "tossup" keeps getting smaller and smaller, and that's pretty remarkable.
Because yes, Mitt Romney carried this state by eight percentage points just two years ago. Put another way, we're all living in a state of flux.
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