I certainly didn't predict that the first Obama-Romney debate would lead to what seems to be a lasting shift in the polls this month in favor of the GOP - now we wait to see if their second debate will have any impact on those polling numbers.
Early indications were that this second meeting was not a game changing moment for either side.
"Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama," said Tom Jensen, the chief of Public Policy Polling, as he tweeted Wednesday night that he thinks "things will go on similar to how they have been."
While Democrats wait to see if this debate stopped the recent momentum for Mitt Romney, Republicans were cheered by the big move in recent days in the Gallup tracking poll, which showcased a 6 point edge for Romney among likely voters on Wednesday, up four points in two days.
The Gallup poll is a seven day tracking survey, which in this case covered October 10-16.
Were there any events during that time frame that could have given the Republicans a bump?
The only possibility that comes immediately to mind is the Vice Presidential debate, which was held a week ago on October 13 - could this change be a result of that faceoff?
Just something to think about.
Another example of the Romney surge came in from Wisconsin, where a new poll conducted by the University of Marquette showed a one point lead for the President, down 10 points in just two weeks.
Something else to think about.
I talked about this on the air Wednesday, but I wanted to actually write it down to make my point about polling in the Silver State.
I looked at high profile races in 2010 for Senate, as well as the 2008 and 2004 Presidential elections to see how the polls predicted the outcome.
I am not a polling expert by any means - but my take is that the polls underestimated the level of Democratic Party support in Nevada in all three of those elections.
* In 2010, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was a dead man walking; his challenger Sharron Angle led in 12 of the last 14 polls, including the last eight in a row - the average edge was 2.7%. Instead, Reid won by 5.6%, a miss of over eight percent.
* In 2008, Barack Obama was the heavy favorite, as he led in almost every poll in the last five weeks of the campaign in Nevada; the poll average showed an edge of 6.5%. But on Election Day, Obama won Nevada by 12.5%, a miss of six percent.
* In 2004, President Bush was the favorite in Nevada, as the polling averages gave him an advantage of 6.3% by Election Day. But when the votes were counted, Bush won Nevada by 3.5%.
I'm no polling expert, but each one of those examples shows that the polls missed the level of Democratic Party support.
I'm not saying that is going to happen in 2012, but it is something to think about.
