I said about a month ago that we should wait until the week of September 24 to look at the polls for the November elections. Now that time frame is here, you cannot ignore some of the trends in those polls, both in the race for the White House and in Congress.
Let's step back and think for a moment - was there one issue, one incident, one gaffe that should have moved voters a significant amount in recent weeks?
Some might answer that Romney's "47%" remark qualifies - but much of this polling data was coming in before that event last week.
Our first stop in a swing state is Wisconsin, a state that Republicans said would be in play thanks to their wins in state elections there this year and the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).
Just before the GOP convention, there were four polls - two showed Romney ahead by one point, the other two had President Obama ahead by two and three points - all within the margin of error.
Then the pollsters went away for almost four weeks.
The last six polls since the conventions show Obama's lead growing in Wisconsin, with two polls giving him leads of 12 and 14 points - the poll average now has the President ahead by 7.8% in the Badger State.
We are also seeing the same trend in the U.S. Senate race in that state, except it is more striking than the Romney-Obama numbers.
For several months, former Gov. Tommy Thompson was the favorite, and the polls showed it. Thompson won a narrow GOP primary win in August, and then the pollsters took a break for the conventions.
Since then, everything has shifted Blue to Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), as she has jumped out to a lead of five points in the poll average for that Senate race, threatening to derail what many Republicans thought was a lock for them in November.
Let's move to another key state for November - Michigan.
Just before the political conventions, Michigan seemed to be getting tighter in the race for the White House. Romney led in one poll by a Democratic group, another pre-convention poll showed a tie in his home state.
But since the conventions ended, there has been nothing but Blue in Michigan. Three polls in the last week have had Obama up double digits in Michigan, including one from Rasmussen, a poll that some people claim often skews in favor of the GOP.
The President now leads in Michigan by an average of 8.6% - that is such a big lead that you can hardly consider that a toss up - even though it's on my list of "swing states" to be sure.
Our last swing state stop will be North Carolina, a state that Romney figured to win hands down.
Right after the GOP convention, there was a poll out that gave Romney a 10 point edge in the Tar Heel State; but since then, four of the last five polls have given President Obama a slight edge of 1% in the average.
Let's put it this way - if Mitt Romney can't win North Carolina, he's not going to win the White House.
But while those states aren't going Romney's way, he is certainly not out of this race, as a new poll in Florida had him very close, and still close in other states. But his path to victory has become more uncertain in the last two weeks.
Meanwhile in the Congress, a number of Senate races also seem to be trending more for the Democrats. Yes, there are still toss up races out there that the GOP can win - but Democratic Senate seats in Florida, Ohio and Missouri have all trended away from the Republicans.
* Sen. Clare McCaskill of Missouri - considered the most endangered Democratic incumbent - now enjoys a lead over Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO), though conservative GOP groups are now thinking about getting back in that race after urging Akin to get out following controversial comments on rape and abortion. The latest poll had McCaskill up six points.
* Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida - long targeted by Republicans, Nelson continues to run stronger than President Obama in the Sunshine State; Nelson has led in 13 of the last 15 polls over Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL). Nelson's lead in the poll average is 6.6% - President Obama's lead in the poll average in Florida is 2.2%.
* Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio - a series of polls right before the GOP convention showed Brown's challenger Josh Mandel gaining on the Democratic incumbent; three had the race tied, others had Brown barely ahead. But since the conventions ended, the polls all ticked up in Brown's favor (as well as for President Obama.) Brown now leads by an average of 7.2%.
While Republicans have talked a lot about winning control of the Senate, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Democrats could not only maintain control, but maybe even pick up a seat or two if things break their way by Election Day.
There are six weeks to go, so obviously things could change. But you can't ignore trends in the polls.
I guess the biggest question is this - what caused this shift in some key battleground states?
Leave me your ideas below.
