Last week's ruling by a three judge panel of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals almost insures that the Obama health reform law will reach the U.S. Supreme Court, but the timing of that remains unclear at best.
The Obama Administration can choose to appeal last Friday's decision to the full 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, or go straight to the Supreme Court. As of Monday, it still wasn't clear what the Justice Department decision would be; the feds have 90 days to decide.
Meanwhile, all sides are still waiting for a ruling by the 4th Circuit on a case brought by the Commonwealth of Virginia, which also challenges the individual mandate provision that was struck down last Friday. That case was argued in early June.
It was the first defeat at the appellate level for the controversial plan that forces Americans to start buying health insurance in 2014, or face a tax penalty.
"This economic mandate represents a wholly novel and potentially unbounded asserts of congressional authorty," the panel's two judge majority wrote, arguing that Congress does not have the power to force people to buy health insurance "every month for their entire lives."
"The premise of the government’s position—that most people will, at some point in the future, consume health care—reveals that the individual mandate is even further removed from traditional exercises of Congress’s commerce power," the ruling stated.
Republicans embraced the decision, even though it did not strike down the underlying Obama health reform law.
"Americans continue to reject ObamaCare, and today’s ruling brings us one step closer to its inevitable demise," said Speaker John Boehner after the decision was issued.
But White House officials expressed confidence that they would prevail.
One interesting note is that this appeals court ruling - like an earlier one in the 6th Circuit - crossed party lines.
In the 6th Circuit, it was a conservative judge appointed by George W. Bush who ruled against the mandate - this time it was a judge appointed by Bill Clinton who joined the majority against the same provision.
This case was brought originally by the state of Florida - then over two dozen other states joined the legal effort against the Obama health reform law.
Conventional wisdom is still that this case will reach the Supreme Court by the end of this year, and then be argued during the 2012 election campaign.
But a lot of different boxes must be checked off before then, like the 4th Circuit's decision on this matter.
Stay tuned.
