Maxwell Class A Region by Region Preview

The Maxwell Ratings region by region breakdowns are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 trials at the rate of approximately 51 seasons per second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the Monte Carlo simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure (i.e., schedules, region alignments, etc.).

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class A GHSA teams were treated as an average Class A team) and results from games with out of state opponents were not factored in calculating the Class A point standings.

Although some regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all region standings were deciding by recursive head-to-head comparisons with all remaining ties being broken randomly.

Region Strength and Parity

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Parity Index”, which is the probability of the region champion being a different team in two consecutive simulations adjusted for the number of teams in the region. The Parity Index takes into account each team’s schedule and game site. A higher Parity Index indicates a region whose championship is more open than a region with a lower Parity Index.

Region Competitive Rating Average Rating Parity Index
5 - A 56.41 30.33 0.366
7 - Div A - A 47.94 31.77 0.868
2 - A 47.86 30.05 0.867
4 - A 45.95 27.08 0.722
7 - Div B - A 45.84 23.26 0.602
3 - Div A - A 45.12 25.81 0.632
8 - A 43.18 19.51 0.666
3 - Div B - A 41.10 20.65 0.662
6 - Div A - A 39.97 26.91 0.780
6 - Div B - A 37.92 21.19 0.551
1 - A 28.91 13.44 0.739

Region by Region Breakdown

Each team is shown with its rating, schedule strength, projected overall and region records, average finish in the region, and the number of times winning the region along with its associated odds.

1 - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Mitchell County 31 30.19 24.45 5.91-4.09 4.19-0.82 1.74 527,284 0.90
Miller County 38 24.24 22.47 5.26-4.74 3.73-1.27 2.22 301,756 2.31
Terrell County 48 15.60 27.18 3.28-6.72 2.73-2.27 3.03 109,992 8.09
Randolph-Clay 52 12.46 15.54 4.22-5.78 2.42-2.58 3.77 50,030 18.99
Calhoun County 57 5.99 23.84 2.29-7.71 1.68-3.32 4.42 10,930 90.49
Baconton 70 -14.11 10.91 1.54-8.46 0.26-4.74 5.83 8 124,999.00
Stewart County† 71 -21.46 9.24 1.56-8.44
† - Plays non-region schedule

2 - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Charlton County 8 43.37 29.84 7.71-2.29 5.40-1.61 2.53 280,152 2.57
Clinch County 11 40.92 27.95 6.88-3.12 5.00-2.01 2.65 264,861 2.78
Irwin County 12 40.84 33.06 6.27-3.73 4.96-2.04 2.75 234,297 3.27
Wilcox County 15 39.28 28.44 6.83-3.17 4.87-2.13 3.03 193,704 4.16
Turner County 30 30.48 27.44 5.48-4.52 3.56-3.44 4.53 26,157 37.23
Telfair County 42 19.46 28.66 3.58-6.42 2.09-4.91 6.15 683 1,463.13
Lanier County 51 13.02 27.71 2.61-7.39 1.43-5.57 6.93 144 6,943.44
Atkinson County 58 5.22 25.89 2.09-7.91 0.71-6.29 7.44 2 499,999.00

3 - Div A - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Calvary Day 3 47.57 21.73 8.90-1.10 4.50-0.50 1.50 631,521 0.58
Savannah Christian 19 37.65 24.16 7.15-2.85 3.61-1.39 2.23 249,591 3.01
Claxton 32 29.78 28.45 5.29-4.71 2.96-2.04 2.93 109,419 8.14
Savannah Country Day 44 18.56 29.11 3.57-6.43 1.75-3.25 4.13 5,388 184.60
Portal 47 16.23 26.83 3.58-6.42 1.48-3.52 4.66 3,897 255.61
Jenkins County 56 7.18 20.64 2.62-7.38 0.70-4.30 5.54 184 5,433.78

3 - Div B - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Emanuel County Institute 13 39.68 21.72 7.94-2.06 3.43-0.57 1.49 586,856 0.70
Johnson County 20 36.61 24.85 6.63-3.37 3.18-0.82 1.81 350,183 1.86
Treutlen 45 17.59 22.04 4.07-5.93 1.76-2.24 3.09 58,243 16.17
Wheeler County 55 8.81 19.21 3.28-6.72 1.05-2.95 4.11 4,267 233.36
Montgomery County 62 2.46 18.91 2.34-7.66 0.57-3.43 4.49 451 2,216.29

4 - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Marion County 5 46.38 23.79 8.60-1.40 6.73-1.27 1.90 490,723 1.04
Dooly County 9 42.68 27.30 7.70-2.30 6.30-1.70 2.22 323,308 2.09
Hawkinsville 23 35.89 29.88 5.96-4.04 5.35-2.65 3.56 92,609 9.80
Brookstone 25 35.23 26.26 6.51-3.49 5.25-2.75 3.73 59,118 15.92
Taylor County 28 31.66 26.91 5.78-4.22 4.67-3.33 4.30 32,914 29.38
Pacelli 43 19.27 30.20 3.23-6.77 2.82-5.18 6.51 932 1,071.96
Greenville 46 17.38 30.18 3.03-6.97 2.67-5.34 6.60 330 3,029.30
Schley County 53 11.80 25.27 3.14-6.86 2.00-6.00 7.32 66 15,150.52
Central (Talbotton) 69 -11.91 24.22 1.31-8.69 0.21-7.79 8.86 - -

5 - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Eagle's Landing Christian 1 62.81 45.86 7.27-2.73 3.78-0.22 1.19 827,602 0.21
Landmark Christian 7 43.58 27.49 7.37-2.63 2.75-1.25 2.16 146,355 5.83
Our Lady of Mercy 21 36.54 24.47 6.55-3.45 2.38-1.62 2.69 25,959 37.52
Strong Rock Christian 60 3.53 28.07 2.49-7.51 0.70-3.30 4.31 70 14,284.71
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 65 -3.55 3.26 4.14-5.86 0.39-3.61 4.65 14 71,427.57

6 - Div A - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Mount Paran Christian 16 38.52 27.62 7.09-2.91 3.19-0.81 1.71 526,640 0.90
Trion 29 31.08 21.46 6.95-3.05 2.44-1.56 2.45 285,737 2.50
Walker 37 24.31 24.88 4.96-5.04 1.73-2.27 3.34 107,474 8.30
Christian Heritage 35 26.07 28.06 4.74-5.26 1.91-2.10 3.21 71,404 13.00
Mount Zion (Carroll) 49 14.36 23.06 3.32-6.68 0.74-3.26 4.30 8,745 113.35
North Cobb Christian† 72 -25.73 -2.81 1.48-8.52
† - Plays non-region schedule

6 - Div B - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Mount Pisgah Christian 18 38.13 26.06 7.01-2.99 4.33-0.67 1.40 711,596 0.41
Whitefield Academy 36 25.70 19.10 5.99-4.01 2.99-2.01 2.89 165,660 5.04
King's Ridge Christian 39 23.68 26.82 4.36-5.64 2.78-2.22 3.08 68,282 13.65
Pinecrest Academy 40 20.87 23.31 4.46-5.54 2.50-2.50 3.54 45,947 20.76
Fellowship Christian 50 13.90 18.85 3.96-6.04 1.65-3.35 4.66 7,431 133.57
St. Francis 59 4.98 17.51 3.07-6.93 0.75-4.25 5.43 1,084 921.51

7 - Div A - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Tattnall Square 14 39.52 18.42 7.87-2.13 3.49-1.51 2.26 351,894 1.84
Stratford Academy 10 41.54 28.27 7.13-2.87 3.64-1.36 2.34 329,306 2.04
Wilkinson County 24 35.56 29.58 6.01-3.99 2.89-2.11 3.04 163,088 5.13
First Presbyterian 26 34.81 25.69 6.51-3.49 2.92-2.08 3.11 132,509 6.55
Mount de Sales 34 26.94 27.43 5.26-4.74 1.92-3.09 4.32 23,196 42.11
Twiggs County 63 -0.29 33.43 1.14-8.86 0.15-4.85 5.93 7 142,856.14

7 - Div B - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Aquinas 2 51.00 29.40 8.30-1.70 3.57-0.43 1.38 639,018 0.56
Lincoln County 6 44.58 23.10 7.68-2.32 3.27-0.73 1.77 330,011 2.03
Hancock Central 41 19.57 21.01 4.54-5.46 1.80-2.21 3.23 30,491 31.80
Georgia Military College 54 10.63 30.52 2.45-7.55 1.19-2.81 3.78 467 2,140.33
Warren County 68 -9.85 26.70 0.79-9.21 0.18-3.82 4.84 13 76,922.08
Glascock County† 67 -6.75 0.87 3.83-6.17
† - Plays non-region schedule

8 - A

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Prince Avenue Christian 4 47.27 17.05 8.59-1.41 7.15-0.85 1.65 591,213 0.69
George Walton Academy 17 38.50 16.96 7.62-2.38 6.17-1.84 2.75 195,196 4.12
Athens Academy 22 35.93 10.13 7.85-2.15 5.90-2.10 3.09 128,022 6.81
Commerce 27 32.51 19.61 6.32-3.68 5.40-2.60 3.55 56,938 16.56
Athens Christian 33 29.06 15.20 6.54-3.46 5.01-3.00 4.08 28,626 33.93
Lakeview Academy 61 3.44 19.41 3.18-6.82 2.53-5.47 6.63 5 199,999.00
Towns County 64 -2.38 19.63 2.66-7.34 2.07-5.93 6.92 - -
Hebron Christian Academy 66 -6.48 19.12 2.15-7.85 1.61-6.39 7.46 - -
Providence Christian 73 -30.56 22.07 0.19-9.81 0.17-7.83 8.88 - -