Maxwell Class AA Preseason Projections

By Loren Maxwell

Aug 17, 2015

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team	Region	Rating	Qtr	Semi	Finals	Champion	Odds
Benedictine	2 - AA	74.06	608,903	512,104	446,151	305,489	2.27
Greater Atlanta Christian	6 - AA	72.63	620,237	497,256	426,854	263,022	2.80
Lovett	6 - AA	69.94	530,342	407,110	331,302	174,518	4.73
Fitzgerald	1 - AA	62.88	777,405	320,487	185,509	70,943	13.10
Brooks County	1 - AA	62.28	748,722	322,380	169,807	63,309	14.80
Vidalia	2 - AA	64.54	353,498	233,339	161,656	62,654	14.96
Lamar County	4 - AA	57.65	605,938	489,345	128,135	34,557	27.94
Thomasville	1 - AA	55.81	532,303	246,995	65,783	16,624	59.15
Jefferson County	3 - AA	45.91	435,568	160,884	16,381	1,961	508.94
Washington-Wilkes	8 - AA	45.52	243,374	141,872	14,171	1,678	594.95
Bowdon	5 - AA	46.70	215,251	35,980	7,900	1,024	975.56
Heard County	5 - AA	45.91	201,261	37,959	6,996	806	1,239.69
Macon County	4 - AA	45.46	153,459	68,085	7,260	800	1,249.00
Bleckley County	4 - AA	44.58	150,173	68,735	6,710	696	1,435.78
Darlington	7 - AA	42.66	317,991	97,991	7,508	657	1,521.07
Early County	1 - AA	43.80	102,210	48,145	3,701	349	2,864.33
Rabun County	8 - AA	40.40	135,521	61,568	3,869	294	3,400.36
Bacon County	2 - AA	38.18	165,963	34,634	1,569	105	9,522.81
Dublin	3 - AA	37.64	124,528	26,828	1,266	89	11,234.96
Pace Academy	6 - AA	38.68	130,048	27,676	1,302	83	12,047.19
Wesleyan	6 - AA	38.22	127,824	26,748	1,165	79	12,657.23
B.E.S.T. Academy	6 - AA	37.36	95,012	18,549	793	54	18,517.52
Model	7 - AA	36.02	114,300	22,096	929	47	21,275.60
Seminole County	1 - AA	39.25	34,306	13,585	659	47	21,275.60
Screven County	3 - AA	36.17	99,514	19,187	743	44	22,726.27
Bremen	5 - AA	33.93	45,153	10,064	373	16	62,499.00
Coosa	7 - AA	33.84	75,973	12,537	418	14	71,427.57
Swainsboro	3 - AA	33.87	46,423	7,513	270	13	76,922.08
Bryan County	2 - AA	34.35	89,747	14,110	436	11	90,908.09
Holy Innocents	6 - AA	33.49	36,616	5,333	135	8	124,999.00
Manchester	5 - AA	27.80	13,460	2,327	33	3	333,332.33
Union County	8 - AA	30.39	21,501	3,587	105	2	499,999.00
Metter	3 - AA	29.74	16,333	1,899	31	2	499,999.00
Northeast	4 - AA	30.99	8,381	787	31	2	499,999.00
Berrien	1 - AA	32.28	3,397	890	19	-	-
Pelham	1 - AA	30.42	2,136	489	12	-	-
Monticello	4 - AA	26.53	2,357	151	7	-	-
Dade County	7 - AA	20.92	1,413	80	4	-	-
Groves	2 - AA	22.65	3,038	179	3	-	-
McIntosh County Academy	2 - AA	22.33	3,001	162	2	-	-
Greene County	8 - AA	21.14	2,608	150	1	-	-
Chattooga	7 - AA	20.96	1,384	77	1	-	-
Jeff Davis	2 - AA	19.45	1,015	45	-	-	-
Chattahoochee County	5 - AA	16.52	566	31	-	-	-
Long County	2 - AA	18.34	743	20	-	-	-
Hapeville	6 - AA	18.09	342	14	-	-	-
Gordon Lee	7 - AA	16.07	215	10	-	-	-
Riverside Military Academy	8 - AA	14.67	295	4	-	-	-
Putnam County	4 - AA	18.05	213	2	-	-	-
Temple	5 - AA	3.23	8	1	-	-	-
East Laurens	3 - AA	13.05	29	-	-	-	-
Oglethorpe County	8 - AA	1.60	2	-	-	-	-
Harlem	3 - AA	6.94	-	-	-	-	-
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate	6 - AA	4.30	-	-	-	-	-
Crawford County	4 - AA	1.15	-	-	-	-	-
Armuchee	7 - AA	0.71	-	-	-	-	-
Social Circle	8 - AA	-12.64	-	-	-	-	-

Most Likely Region Seeding

Each region is shown with the most likely region seeding orders and odds of each team making the playoffs.

1-AA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
9.9%	Fitzgerald	Brooks County	Thomasville	Early County
7.2%	Brooks County	Fitzgerald	Thomasville	Early County
6.6%	Fitzgerald	Thomasville	Brooks County	Early County
6.5%	Fitzgerald	Brooks County	Thomasville	Seminole County

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Fitzgerald	1.81	47.5%	30.3%	17.1%	4.2%	99.1%	0.01
Brooks County	2.02	35.2%	36.0%	22.0%	5.4%	98.6%	0.01
Thomasville	2.70	15.8%	27.1%	36.4%	14.7%	94.0%	0.06
Early County	4.36	1.1%	4.5%	14.8%	37.1%	57.6%	0.74
Seminole County	4.95	0.3%	1.7%	7.1%	25.5%	34.6%	1.89
Berrien	6.05	0.0%	0.3%	1.5%	7.1%	8.9%	10.28
Pelham	6.12	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	6.0%	7.3%	12.67

2-AA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
20.3%	Benedictine	Vidalia	Bacon County	Bryan County
16.0%	Benedictine	Vidalia	Bryan County	Bacon County
8.9%	Vidalia	Benedictine	Bacon County	Bryan County
7.0%	Vidalia	Benedictine	Bryan County	Bacon County

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Benedictine	1.31	70.1%	28.3%	1.4%	0.1%	100.0%	0.00
Vidalia	1.77	29.4%	64.8%	5.4%	0.4%	100.0%	0.00
Bacon County	3.67	0.2%	4.3%	49.0%	29.9%	83.3%	0.20
Bryan County	4.07	0.2%	2.4%	33.7%	35.7%	72.0%	0.39
McIntosh County Academy	6.00	0.0%	0.1%	3.6%	11.2%	14.9%	5.72
Groves	6.04	0.0%	0.1%	3.5%	10.7%	14.2%	6.02
Jeff Davis	6.46	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	6.6%	8.5%	10.75
Long County	6.68	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%	5.5%	7.1%	13.04

3-AA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
5.4%	Jefferson County	Screven County	Dublin	Swainsboro
5.1%	Jefferson County	Dublin	Screven County	Swainsboro
3.9%	Jefferson County	Dublin	Swainsboro	Screven County
3.8%	Jefferson County	Screven County	Swainsboro	Dublin

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Jefferson County	1.73	56.9%	23.9%	11.2%	5.6%	97.7%	0.02
Dublin	2.89	16.6%	26.2%	24.8%	19.0%	86.6%	0.16
Screven County	3.03	14.7%	24.7%	24.0%	19.8%	83.2%	0.20
Swainsboro	3.57	7.9%	15.5%	22.2%	27.2%	72.8%	0.37
Metter	4.10	3.8%	9.6%	16.6%	24.8%	54.8%	0.83
East Laurens	6.14	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%	2.7%	3.9%	24.64
Harlem	6.55	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.8%	1.1%	93.38

4-AA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
13.0%	Lamar County	Bleckley County	Macon County	Northeast
12.1%	Lamar County	Macon County	Bleckley County	Northeast
7.1%	Lamar County	Bleckley County	Macon County	Monticello
6.7%	Lamar County	Macon County	Bleckley County	Monticello

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Lamar County	1.36	71.8%	21.9%	5.0%	1.1%	99.8%	0.00
Bleckley County	2.54	14.6%	37.0%	33.5%	10.9%	96.0%	0.04
Macon County	2.65	12.4%	33.2%	36.6%	13.2%	95.4%	0.05
Northeast	4.28	0.9%	4.7%	14.7%	38.5%	58.8%	0.70
Monticello	4.78	0.3%	2.8%	7.7%	23.3%	34.1%	1.93
Putnam County	5.39	0.0%	0.4%	2.5%	12.9%	15.8%	5.32
Crawford County	-	-	-	-	-	0.0%	-

5-AA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
14.6%	Heard County	Bowdon	Bremen	Manchester
13.7%	Bowdon	Heard County	Bremen	Manchester
7.9%	Heard County	Bowdon	Manchester	Bremen
7.1%	Bowdon	Bremen	Heard County	Manchester

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Bowdon	1.75	46.5%	37.2%	11.8%	3.8%	99.4%	0.01
Heard County	1.86	43.2%	34.4%	16.4%	5.3%	99.2%	0.01
Bremen	3.03	7.7%	19.2%	42.6%	23.7%	93.2%	0.07
Manchester	3.78	2.4%	8.1%	23.7%	44.9%	79.0%	0.27
Chattahoochee County	4.85	0.1%	1.1%	5.0%	18.2%	24.4%	3.09
Temple	5.73	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	4.1%	4.7%	20.36

6-AA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
7.9%	Greater Atlanta Christian	Lovett	Wesleyan	Pace Academy
7.2%	Greater Atlanta Christian	Lovett	Pace Academy	Wesleyan
6.3%	Greater Atlanta Christian	Lovett	Wesleyan	B.E.S.T. Academy
5.8%	Greater Atlanta Christian	Lovett	Pace Academy	B.E.S.T. Academy

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian	1.43	60.4%	37.1%	2.2%	0.3%	100.0%	0.00
Lovett	1.66	39.0%	56.7%	3.7%	0.5%	99.9%	0.00
Wesleyan	4.28	0.2%	2.0%	30.7%	26.9%	59.8%	0.67
Pace Academy	4.30	0.2%	2.2%	28.8%	27.2%	58.5%	0.71
B.E.S.T. Academy	4.57	0.1%	1.5%	22.4%	25.1%	49.1%	1.04
Holy Innocents	5.15	0.0%	0.6%	11.5%	17.7%	29.9%	2.35
Hapeville	6.82	-	0.0%	0.5%	2.3%	2.8%	34.59
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate	7.79	-	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2,226.17

7-AA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
7.5%	Darlington	Model	Coosa	Chattooga
6.6%	Darlington	Model	Coosa	Dade County
6.4%	Darlington	Coosa	Model	Chattooga
5.6%	Darlington	Coosa	Model	Dade County

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Darlington	1.68	56.2%	25.8%	12.9%	4.1%	98.9%	0.01
Model	2.42	22.8%	34.0%	27.9%	10.1%	94.8%	0.05
Coosa	2.64	18.6%	29.9%	30.0%	13.5%	92.1%	0.09
Chattooga	4.57	1.0%	4.2%	12.1%	29.8%	47.2%	1.12
Dade County	4.63	1.2%	4.5%	11.8%	26.8%	44.2%	1.26
Gordon Lee	5.36	0.3%	1.5%	5.1%	14.5%	21.5%	3.66
Armuchee	6.69	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.2%	1.4%	71.32

8-AA
Seed Orders
Pct	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
17.1%	Washington-Wilkes	Rabun County	Union County	Greene County
10.9%	Rabun County	Washington-Wilkes	Union County	Greene County
8.2%	Washington-Wilkes	Rabun County	Union County	Riverside Military Academy
7.0%	Washington-Wilkes	Union County	Rabun County	Greene County

Each Team's Odds
Team	Avg Fin	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	In	Odds
Washington-Wilkes	1.57	58.0%	29.5%	10.1%	2.1%	99.7%	0.00
Rabun County	1.96	33.8%	42.9%	17.4%	4.9%	99.0%	0.01
Union County	3.02	6.6%	19.6%	46.7%	20.4%	93.3%	0.07
Greene County	4.02	1.4%	6.3%	18.4%	44.0%	70.1%	0.43
Riverside Military Academy	4.75	0.2%	1.6%	6.8%	24.2%	32.8%	2.04
Oglethorpe County	5.90	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	4.1%	4.7%	20.07
Social Circle	6.78	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	433.40

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket is seeded from the most likely region seeds and assumes every favorite wins.