Maxwell Class AA Preseason Projections

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AA team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Benedictine 2 - AA 74.06 608,903 512,104 446,151 305,489 2.27
Greater Atlanta Christian 6 - AA 72.63 620,237 497,256 426,854 263,022 2.80
Lovett 6 - AA 69.94 530,342 407,110 331,302 174,518 4.73
Fitzgerald 1 - AA 62.88 777,405 320,487 185,509 70,943 13.10
Brooks County 1 - AA 62.28 748,722 322,380 169,807 63,309 14.80
Vidalia 2 - AA 64.54 353,498 233,339 161,656 62,654 14.96
Lamar County 4 - AA 57.65 605,938 489,345 128,135 34,557 27.94
Thomasville 1 - AA 55.81 532,303 246,995 65,783 16,624 59.15
Jefferson County 3 - AA 45.91 435,568 160,884 16,381 1,961 508.94
Washington-Wilkes 8 - AA 45.52 243,374 141,872 14,171 1,678 594.95
Bowdon 5 - AA 46.70 215,251 35,980 7,900 1,024 975.56
Heard County 5 - AA 45.91 201,261 37,959 6,996 806 1,239.69
Macon County 4 - AA 45.46 153,459 68,085 7,260 800 1,249.00
Bleckley County 4 - AA 44.58 150,173 68,735 6,710 696 1,435.78
Darlington 7 - AA 42.66 317,991 97,991 7,508 657 1,521.07
Early County 1 - AA 43.80 102,210 48,145 3,701 349 2,864.33
Rabun County 8 - AA 40.40 135,521 61,568 3,869 294 3,400.36
Bacon County 2 - AA 38.18 165,963 34,634 1,569 105 9,522.81
Dublin 3 - AA 37.64 124,528 26,828 1,266 89 11,234.96
Pace Academy 6 - AA 38.68 130,048 27,676 1,302 83 12,047.19
Wesleyan 6 - AA 38.22 127,824 26,748 1,165 79 12,657.23
B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 37.36 95,012 18,549 793 54 18,517.52
Model 7 - AA 36.02 114,300 22,096 929 47 21,275.60
Seminole County 1 - AA 39.25 34,306 13,585 659 47 21,275.60
Screven County 3 - AA 36.17 99,514 19,187 743 44 22,726.27
Bremen 5 - AA 33.93 45,153 10,064 373 16 62,499.00
Coosa 7 - AA 33.84 75,973 12,537 418 14 71,427.57
Swainsboro 3 - AA 33.87 46,423 7,513 270 13 76,922.08
Bryan County 2 - AA 34.35 89,747 14,110 436 11 90,908.09
Holy Innocents 6 - AA 33.49 36,616 5,333 135 8 124,999.00
Manchester 5 - AA 27.80 13,460 2,327 33 3 333,332.33
Union County 8 - AA 30.39 21,501 3,587 105 2 499,999.00
Metter 3 - AA 29.74 16,333 1,899 31 2 499,999.00
Northeast 4 - AA 30.99 8,381 787 31 2 499,999.00
Berrien 1 - AA 32.28 3,397 890 19 - -
Pelham 1 - AA 30.42 2,136 489 12 - -
Monticello 4 - AA 26.53 2,357 151 7 - -
Dade County 7 - AA 20.92 1,413 80 4 - -
Groves 2 - AA 22.65 3,038 179 3 - -
McIntosh County Academy 2 - AA 22.33 3,001 162 2 - -
Greene County 8 - AA 21.14 2,608 150 1 - -
Chattooga 7 - AA 20.96 1,384 77 1 - -
Jeff Davis 2 - AA 19.45 1,015 45 - - -
Chattahoochee County 5 - AA 16.52 566 31 - - -
Long County 2 - AA 18.34 743 20 - - -
Hapeville 6 - AA 18.09 342 14 - - -
Gordon Lee 7 - AA 16.07 215 10 - - -
Riverside Military Academy 8 - AA 14.67 295 4 - - -
Putnam County 4 - AA 18.05 213 2 - - -
Temple 5 - AA 3.23 8 1 - - -
East Laurens 3 - AA 13.05 29 - - - -
Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 1.60 2 - - - -
Harlem 3 - AA 6.94 - - - - -
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 4.30 - - - - -
Crawford County 4 - AA 1.15 - - - - -
Armuchee 7 - AA 0.71 - - - - -
Social Circle 8 - AA -12.64 - - - - -

Most Likely Region Seeding

Each region is shown with the most likely region seeding orders and odds of each team making the playoffs.

1-AA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
9.9% Fitzgerald Brooks County Thomasville Early County
7.2% Brooks County Fitzgerald Thomasville Early County
6.6% Fitzgerald Thomasville Brooks County Early County
6.5% Fitzgerald Brooks County Thomasville Seminole County
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Fitzgerald 1.81 47.5% 30.3% 17.1% 4.2% 99.1% 0.01
Brooks County 2.02 35.2% 36.0% 22.0% 5.4% 98.6% 0.01
Thomasville 2.70 15.8% 27.1% 36.4% 14.7% 94.0% 0.06
Early County 4.36 1.1% 4.5% 14.8% 37.1% 57.6% 0.74
Seminole County 4.95 0.3% 1.7% 7.1% 25.5% 34.6% 1.89
Berrien 6.05 0.0% 0.3% 1.5% 7.1% 8.9% 10.28
Pelham 6.12 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% 6.0% 7.3% 12.67
2-AA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
20.3% Benedictine Vidalia Bacon County Bryan County
16.0% Benedictine Vidalia Bryan County Bacon County
8.9% Vidalia Benedictine Bacon County Bryan County
7.0% Vidalia Benedictine Bryan County Bacon County
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Benedictine 1.31 70.1% 28.3% 1.4% 0.1% 100.0% 0.00
Vidalia 1.77 29.4% 64.8% 5.4% 0.4% 100.0% 0.00
Bacon County 3.67 0.2% 4.3% 49.0% 29.9% 83.3% 0.20
Bryan County 4.07 0.2% 2.4% 33.7% 35.7% 72.0% 0.39
McIntosh County Academy 6.00 0.0% 0.1% 3.6% 11.2% 14.9% 5.72
Groves 6.04 0.0% 0.1% 3.5% 10.7% 14.2% 6.02
Jeff Davis 6.46 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 6.6% 8.5% 10.75
Long County 6.68 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 5.5% 7.1% 13.04
3-AA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
5.4% Jefferson County Screven County Dublin Swainsboro
5.1% Jefferson County Dublin Screven County Swainsboro
3.9% Jefferson County Dublin Swainsboro Screven County
3.8% Jefferson County Screven County Swainsboro Dublin
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Jefferson County 1.73 56.9% 23.9% 11.2% 5.6% 97.7% 0.02
Dublin 2.89 16.6% 26.2% 24.8% 19.0% 86.6% 0.16
Screven County 3.03 14.7% 24.7% 24.0% 19.8% 83.2% 0.20
Swainsboro 3.57 7.9% 15.5% 22.2% 27.2% 72.8% 0.37
Metter 4.10 3.8% 9.6% 16.6% 24.8% 54.8% 0.83
East Laurens 6.14 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 2.7% 3.9% 24.64
Harlem 6.55 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 93.38
4-AA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
13.0% Lamar County Bleckley County Macon County Northeast
12.1% Lamar County Macon County Bleckley County Northeast
7.1% Lamar County Bleckley County Macon County Monticello
6.7% Lamar County Macon County Bleckley County Monticello
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Lamar County 1.36 71.8% 21.9% 5.0% 1.1% 99.8% 0.00
Bleckley County 2.54 14.6% 37.0% 33.5% 10.9% 96.0% 0.04
Macon County 2.65 12.4% 33.2% 36.6% 13.2% 95.4% 0.05
Northeast 4.28 0.9% 4.7% 14.7% 38.5% 58.8% 0.70
Monticello 4.78 0.3% 2.8% 7.7% 23.3% 34.1% 1.93
Putnam County 5.39 0.0% 0.4% 2.5% 12.9% 15.8% 5.32
Crawford County - - - - - 0.0% -
5-AA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
14.6% Heard County Bowdon Bremen Manchester
13.7% Bowdon Heard County Bremen Manchester
7.9% Heard County Bowdon Manchester Bremen
7.1% Bowdon Bremen Heard County Manchester
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Bowdon 1.75 46.5% 37.2% 11.8% 3.8% 99.4% 0.01
Heard County 1.86 43.2% 34.4% 16.4% 5.3% 99.2% 0.01
Bremen 3.03 7.7% 19.2% 42.6% 23.7% 93.2% 0.07
Manchester 3.78 2.4% 8.1% 23.7% 44.9% 79.0% 0.27
Chattahoochee County 4.85 0.1% 1.1% 5.0% 18.2% 24.4% 3.09
Temple 5.73 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 4.1% 4.7% 20.36
6-AA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
7.9% Greater Atlanta Christian Lovett Wesleyan Pace Academy
7.2% Greater Atlanta Christian Lovett Pace Academy Wesleyan
6.3% Greater Atlanta Christian Lovett Wesleyan B.E.S.T. Academy
5.8% Greater Atlanta Christian Lovett Pace Academy B.E.S.T. Academy
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Greater Atlanta Christian 1.43 60.4% 37.1% 2.2% 0.3% 100.0% 0.00
Lovett 1.66 39.0% 56.7% 3.7% 0.5% 99.9% 0.00
Wesleyan 4.28 0.2% 2.0% 30.7% 26.9% 59.8% 0.67
Pace Academy 4.30 0.2% 2.2% 28.8% 27.2% 58.5% 0.71
B.E.S.T. Academy 4.57 0.1% 1.5% 22.4% 25.1% 49.1% 1.04
Holy Innocents 5.15 0.0% 0.6% 11.5% 17.7% 29.9% 2.35
Hapeville 6.82 - 0.0% 0.5% 2.3% 2.8% 34.59
K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 7.79 - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2,226.17
7-AA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
7.5% Darlington Model Coosa Chattooga
6.6% Darlington Model Coosa Dade County
6.4% Darlington Coosa Model Chattooga
5.6% Darlington Coosa Model Dade County
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Darlington 1.68 56.2% 25.8% 12.9% 4.1% 98.9% 0.01
Model 2.42 22.8% 34.0% 27.9% 10.1% 94.8% 0.05
Coosa 2.64 18.6% 29.9% 30.0% 13.5% 92.1% 0.09
Chattooga 4.57 1.0% 4.2% 12.1% 29.8% 47.2% 1.12
Dade County 4.63 1.2% 4.5% 11.8% 26.8% 44.2% 1.26
Gordon Lee 5.36 0.3% 1.5% 5.1% 14.5% 21.5% 3.66
Armuchee 6.69 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 1.4% 71.32
8-AA
Seed Orders
Pct 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
17.1% Washington-Wilkes Rabun County Union County Greene County
10.9% Rabun County Washington-Wilkes Union County Greene County
8.2% Washington-Wilkes Rabun County Union County Riverside Military Academy
7.0% Washington-Wilkes Union County Rabun County Greene County
Each Team's Odds
Team Avg Fin 1st 2nd 3rd 4th In Odds
Washington-Wilkes 1.57 58.0% 29.5% 10.1% 2.1% 99.7% 0.00
Rabun County 1.96 33.8% 42.9% 17.4% 4.9% 99.0% 0.01
Union County 3.02 6.6% 19.6% 46.7% 20.4% 93.3% 0.07
Greene County 4.02 1.4% 6.3% 18.4% 44.0% 70.1% 0.43
Riverside Military Academy 4.75 0.2% 1.6% 6.8% 24.2% 32.8% 2.04
Oglethorpe County 5.90 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 4.1% 4.7% 20.07
Social Circle 6.78 - 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 433.40

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket is seeded from the most likely region seeds and assumes every favorite wins.

ajc.com

Credit: Loren Maxwell

Credit: Loren Maxwell