AAAAAA: Maxwell Ratings predict region standings, W-L records

The Maxwell Ratings have predicted the region standings and the won-lost records of Georgia's Class AAAAAA teams. The computer ratings are the work of Loren Maxwell, founder of the Georgia High School Football Historical Association. He has been involved with sports ratings since 1986.

His region-by-region breakdowns are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 trials at the rate of approximately 51 seasons per second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the Monte Carlo simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure (i.e., schedules, region alignments, etc.).

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).

Although some regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all region standings were deciding by recursive head-to-head comparisons with all remaining ties being broken randomly.

Region Strength and Parity

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Parity Index”, which is the probability of the region champion being a different team in two consecutive simulations adjusted for the number of teams in the region. The Parity Index takes into account each team’s schedule and game site. A higher Parity Index indicates a region whose championship is more open than a region with a lower Parity Index.

Region Competitive Rating Average Rating Parity Index
7 - AAAAAA 95.36 73.37 0.722
1 - AAAAAA 94.53 77.75 0.785
4 - AAAAAA 86.24 71.35 0.848
8 - AAAAAA 84.21 68.36 0.829
2 - AAAAAA 81.53 56.50 0.626
5 - AAAAAA 79.69 63.49 0.767
3 - AAAAAA 74.70 58.26 0.712
6 - AAAAAA 72.39 54.96 0.676

Region by Region Breakdown

Each team is shown with its rating, schedule strength, projected overall and region records, average finish in the region, and the number of times winning the region along with its associated odds.

1 - AAAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Camden County 4 88.44 66.25 8.44-1.56 3.69-1.31 1.96 456,759 1.19
Colquitt County 3 89.19 68.20 8.42-1.58 3.82-1.18 2.12 337,701 1.96
Lowndes 8 82.98 63.52 7.81-2.19 3.08-1.92 2.82 137,558 6.27
Valdosta 15 77.51 67.76 6.57-3.43 2.46-2.54 3.63 64,181 14.58
Tift County 31 66.48 61.12 5.70-4.30 1.33-3.67 4.88 3,377 295.12
Lee County 38 58.78 59.90 4.88-5.12 0.61-4.39 5.58 424 2,357.49

2 - AAAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Lovejoy 7 83.32 58.27 8.29-1.71 4.41-0.59 1.55 509,737 0.96
Tucker 9 81.96 51.82 8.14-1.86 4.32-0.68 1.61 467,374 1.14
Newton 44 55.58 55.60 5.01-4.99 2.37-2.63 3.61 18,824 52.12
Alcovy 50 51.53 56.78 4.19-5.81 2.13-2.87 3.97 3,144 317.07
Rockdale County 58 43.82 57.85 3.26-6.74 1.42-3.58 4.53 918 1,088.32
Lakeside (Atlanta) 61 29.26 50.12 1.91-8.09 0.34-4.66 5.73 3 333,332.33

3 - AAAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Hughes 21 74.53 60.74 7.56-2.44 5.87-1.13 1.77 533,074 0.88
Newnan 30 66.96 64.01 5.51-4.49 4.86-2.14 2.56 271,623 2.68
East Coweta 32 65.01 58.10 6.44-3.56 4.62-2.38 3.08 129,521 6.72
Westlake 42 57.50 56.61 5.22-4.78 3.36-3.64 4.64 33,933 28.47
South Cobb 41 57.75 60.94 4.39-5.61 3.43-3.57 4.45 26,251 37.09
Douglas County 52 50.02 55.34 3.92-6.08 2.18-4.82 6.14 3,171 314.36
Campbell 53 49.28 51.05 4.71-5.29 2.04-4.96 6.34 1,994 500.50
Pebblebrook 56 46.39 54.77 3.39-6.61 1.65-5.35 7.02 433 2,308.47

4 - AAAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
McEachern 6 84.12 76.60 6.39-3.61 4.65-1.35 2.12 440,389 1.27
Hillgrove 10 81.26 72.56 6.63-3.37 4.35-1.65 2.63 224,647 3.45
North Cobb 14 77.69 71.30 6.16-3.84 3.89-2.11 2.93 180,583 4.54
Marietta 19 74.86 69.65 6.04-3.96 3.39-2.61 3.46 125,603 6.96
North Paulding 28 68.01 68.56 4.89-5.11 2.55-3.45 4.52 24,309 40.14
Harrison 33 61.54 64.26 4.55-5.45 1.82-4.18 5.48 4,469 222.76
Kennesaw Mountain 59 43.44 61.86 2.60-7.40 0.34-5.66 6.85 - -
Osborne† 62 27.23 37.10 3.42-5.58 - - - -
† - Plays non-region schedule

5 - AAAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Lassiter 17 76.16 65.30 7.12-2.88 6.23-1.77 2.16 390,758 1.56
Walton 18 75.96 64.12 7.40-2.60 6.18-1.83 2.20 376,298 1.66
Milton 26 70.55 66.52 5.75-4.25 5.27-2.73 3.23 132,095 6.57
Etowah 29 67.40 62.91 5.88-4.12 4.72-3.29 4.06 79,992 11.50
Woodstock 35 60.33 59.54 5.16-4.84 3.41-4.59 5.74 7,644 129.82
Wheeler 39 58.60 62.69 4.11-5.89 3.07-4.93 6.25 7,300 135.99
Roswell 40 58.51 64.64 3.85-6.15 3.09-4.91 6.38 4,346 229.10
Cherokee 45 55.46 63.09 3.37-6.63 2.51-5.49 6.83 1,507 662.57
Pope 54 48.90 64.08 1.99-8.01 1.53-6.47 8.13 60 16,665.67

6 - AAAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Alpharetta 22 73.43 54.86 8.22-1.78 7.58-1.42 1.81 487,270 1.05
West Forsyth 24 71.30 55.53 7.70-2.30 7.36-1.64 2.04 396,978 1.52
Lambert 36 60.13 53.35 6.32-3.68 5.45-3.55 4.34 50,916 18.64
Chattahoochee 37 59.86 54.45 6.08-3.92 5.41-3.59 4.27 36,269 26.57
North Forsyth 46 55.21 54.76 5.08-4.92 4.63-4.38 5.46 14,084 70.00
South Forsyth 47 53.90 53.46 5.09-4.91 4.36-4.65 5.77 10,617 93.19
Centennial 49 51.87 55.85 4.20-5.80 3.92-5.08 6.40 3,119 319.62
Johns Creek 55 48.22 56.56 3.40-6.60 3.24-5.76 7.12 652 1,532.74
Northview 57 44.78 56.04 2.90-7.10 2.62-6.38 7.93 95 10,525.32
Habersham Central 63 24.84 54.98 0.73-9.27 0.44-8.56 9.86 - -

7 - AAAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Norcross 1 96.86 71.96 8.68-1.32 5.99-1.01 1.78 481,333 1.08
North Gwinnett 2 93.63 74.56 8.09-1.91 5.74-1.26 1.99 401,463 1.49
Mill Creek 11 80.16 74.05 5.89-4.11 4.21-2.79 3.94 50,854 18.66
Collins Hill 5 84.24 69.32 7.13-2.87 4.68-2.32 3.42 49,175 19.34
Peachtree Ridge 13 78.67 74.04 5.68-4.32 4.08-2.92 3.96 17,166 57.25
Duluth 48 52.78 64.59 3.85-6.15 1.87-5.13 6.17 9 111,110.11
Mountain View 60 42.86 69.77 2.11-7.89 1.27-5.73 6.83 - -
Meadowcreek 64 20.09 65.47 1.00-9.00 0.16-6.85 7.91 - -

8 - AAAAAA

Projected Record
Team Rank Rating Sch Str Overall Region Avg Fin First Odds
Grayson 12 79.70 69.00 7.24-2.76 6.05-1.95 2.30 403,686 1.48
Archer 16 77.35 70.71 6.33-3.67 5.63-2.37 2.87 254,352 2.93
Brookwood 20 74.58 71.16 5.66-4.34 5.14-2.86 3.57 146,629 5.82
Dacula 23 72.24 70.78 5.28-4.72 4.75-3.25 4.03 91,123 9.97
South Gwinnett 25 70.97 70.67 5.04-4.96 4.48-3.52 4.30 66,599 14.02
Parkview 27 68.47 67.05 5.25-4.75 4.05-3.96 5.18 34,519 27.97
Central Gwinnett 34 60.93 69.52 3.41-6.59 2.66-5.34 6.82 2,568 388.41
Shiloh 43 56.88 69.68 2.48-7.52 1.99-6.01 7.51 454 2,201.64
Berkmar 51 51.38 71.01 1.59-8.41 1.26-6.74 8.43 70 14,284.71