AAAAAA: Maxwell Ratings predict region standings, W-L records

The Maxwell Ratings have predicted the region standings and the won-lost records of Georgia's Class AAAAAA teams. The computer ratings are the work of Loren Maxwell, founder of the Georgia High School Football Historical Association. He has been involved with sports ratings since 1986.

His region-by-region breakdowns are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 trials at the rate of approximately 51 seasons per second.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the Monte Carlo simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure (i.e., schedules, region alignments, etc.).

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).

Although some regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all region standings were deciding by recursive head-to-head comparisons with all remaining ties being broken randomly.

Region Strength and Parity

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Parity Index”, which is the probability of the region champion being a different team in two consecutive simulations adjusted for the number of teams in the region. The Parity Index takes into account each team’s schedule and game site. A higher Parity Index indicates a region whose championship is more open than a region with a lower Parity Index.

Region	Competitive Rating	Average Rating	Parity Index
7 - AAAAAA	95.36	73.37	0.722
1 - AAAAAA	94.53	77.75	0.785
4 - AAAAAA	86.24	71.35	0.848
8 - AAAAAA	84.21	68.36	0.829
2 - AAAAAA	81.53	56.50	0.626
5 - AAAAAA	79.69	63.49	0.767
3 - AAAAAA	74.70	58.26	0.712
6 - AAAAAA	72.39	54.96	0.676

Region by Region Breakdown

Each team is shown with its rating, schedule strength, projected overall and region records, average finish in the region, and the number of times winning the region along with its associated odds.

1 - AAAAAA

				Projected Record
Team	Rank	Rating	Sch Str	Overall	Region	Avg Fin	First	Odds
Camden County	4	88.44	66.25	8.44-1.56	3.69-1.31	1.96	456,759	1.19
Colquitt County	3	89.19	68.20	8.42-1.58	3.82-1.18	2.12	337,701	1.96
Lowndes	8	82.98	63.52	7.81-2.19	3.08-1.92	2.82	137,558	6.27
Valdosta	15	77.51	67.76	6.57-3.43	2.46-2.54	3.63	64,181	14.58
Tift County	31	66.48	61.12	5.70-4.30	1.33-3.67	4.88	3,377	295.12
Lee County	38	58.78	59.90	4.88-5.12	0.61-4.39	5.58	424	2,357.49

2 - AAAAAA

				Projected Record
Team	Rank	Rating	Sch Str	Overall	Region	Avg Fin	First	Odds
Lovejoy	7	83.32	58.27	8.29-1.71	4.41-0.59	1.55	509,737	0.96
Tucker	9	81.96	51.82	8.14-1.86	4.32-0.68	1.61	467,374	1.14
Newton	44	55.58	55.60	5.01-4.99	2.37-2.63	3.61	18,824	52.12
Alcovy	50	51.53	56.78	4.19-5.81	2.13-2.87	3.97	3,144	317.07
Rockdale County	58	43.82	57.85	3.26-6.74	1.42-3.58	4.53	918	1,088.32
Lakeside (Atlanta)	61	29.26	50.12	1.91-8.09	0.34-4.66	5.73	3	333,332.33

3 - AAAAAA

				Projected Record
Team	Rank	Rating	Sch Str	Overall	Region	Avg Fin	First	Odds
Hughes	21	74.53	60.74	7.56-2.44	5.87-1.13	1.77	533,074	0.88
Newnan	30	66.96	64.01	5.51-4.49	4.86-2.14	2.56	271,623	2.68
East Coweta	32	65.01	58.10	6.44-3.56	4.62-2.38	3.08	129,521	6.72
Westlake	42	57.50	56.61	5.22-4.78	3.36-3.64	4.64	33,933	28.47
South Cobb	41	57.75	60.94	4.39-5.61	3.43-3.57	4.45	26,251	37.09
Douglas County	52	50.02	55.34	3.92-6.08	2.18-4.82	6.14	3,171	314.36
Campbell	53	49.28	51.05	4.71-5.29	2.04-4.96	6.34	1,994	500.50
Pebblebrook	56	46.39	54.77	3.39-6.61	1.65-5.35	7.02	433	2,308.47

4 - AAAAAA

				Projected Record
Team	Rank	Rating	Sch Str	Overall	Region	Avg Fin	First	Odds
McEachern	6	84.12	76.60	6.39-3.61	4.65-1.35	2.12	440,389	1.27
Hillgrove	10	81.26	72.56	6.63-3.37	4.35-1.65	2.63	224,647	3.45
North Cobb	14	77.69	71.30	6.16-3.84	3.89-2.11	2.93	180,583	4.54
Marietta	19	74.86	69.65	6.04-3.96	3.39-2.61	3.46	125,603	6.96
North Paulding	28	68.01	68.56	4.89-5.11	2.55-3.45	4.52	24,309	40.14
Harrison	33	61.54	64.26	4.55-5.45	1.82-4.18	5.48	4,469	222.76
Kennesaw Mountain	59	43.44	61.86	2.60-7.40	0.34-5.66	6.85	-	-
Osborne†	62	27.23	37.10	3.42-5.58	-	-	-	-
† - Plays non-region schedule

5 - AAAAAA

				Projected Record
Team	Rank	Rating	Sch Str	Overall	Region	Avg Fin	First	Odds
Lassiter	17	76.16	65.30	7.12-2.88	6.23-1.77	2.16	390,758	1.56
Walton	18	75.96	64.12	7.40-2.60	6.18-1.83	2.20	376,298	1.66
Milton	26	70.55	66.52	5.75-4.25	5.27-2.73	3.23	132,095	6.57
Etowah	29	67.40	62.91	5.88-4.12	4.72-3.29	4.06	79,992	11.50
Woodstock	35	60.33	59.54	5.16-4.84	3.41-4.59	5.74	7,644	129.82
Wheeler	39	58.60	62.69	4.11-5.89	3.07-4.93	6.25	7,300	135.99
Roswell	40	58.51	64.64	3.85-6.15	3.09-4.91	6.38	4,346	229.10
Cherokee	45	55.46	63.09	3.37-6.63	2.51-5.49	6.83	1,507	662.57
Pope	54	48.90	64.08	1.99-8.01	1.53-6.47	8.13	60	16,665.67

6 - AAAAAA

				Projected Record
Team	Rank	Rating	Sch Str	Overall	Region	Avg Fin	First	Odds
Alpharetta	22	73.43	54.86	8.22-1.78	7.58-1.42	1.81	487,270	1.05
West Forsyth	24	71.30	55.53	7.70-2.30	7.36-1.64	2.04	396,978	1.52
Lambert	36	60.13	53.35	6.32-3.68	5.45-3.55	4.34	50,916	18.64
Chattahoochee	37	59.86	54.45	6.08-3.92	5.41-3.59	4.27	36,269	26.57
North Forsyth	46	55.21	54.76	5.08-4.92	4.63-4.38	5.46	14,084	70.00
South Forsyth	47	53.90	53.46	5.09-4.91	4.36-4.65	5.77	10,617	93.19
Centennial	49	51.87	55.85	4.20-5.80	3.92-5.08	6.40	3,119	319.62
Johns Creek	55	48.22	56.56	3.40-6.60	3.24-5.76	7.12	652	1,532.74
Northview	57	44.78	56.04	2.90-7.10	2.62-6.38	7.93	95	10,525.32
Habersham Central	63	24.84	54.98	0.73-9.27	0.44-8.56	9.86	-	-

7 - AAAAAA

				Projected Record
Team	Rank	Rating	Sch Str	Overall	Region	Avg Fin	First	Odds
Norcross	1	96.86	71.96	8.68-1.32	5.99-1.01	1.78	481,333	1.08
North Gwinnett	2	93.63	74.56	8.09-1.91	5.74-1.26	1.99	401,463	1.49
Mill Creek	11	80.16	74.05	5.89-4.11	4.21-2.79	3.94	50,854	18.66
Collins Hill	5	84.24	69.32	7.13-2.87	4.68-2.32	3.42	49,175	19.34
Peachtree Ridge	13	78.67	74.04	5.68-4.32	4.08-2.92	3.96	17,166	57.25
Duluth	48	52.78	64.59	3.85-6.15	1.87-5.13	6.17	9	111,110.11
Mountain View	60	42.86	69.77	2.11-7.89	1.27-5.73	6.83	-	-
Meadowcreek	64	20.09	65.47	1.00-9.00	0.16-6.85	7.91	-	-

8 - AAAAAA

				Projected Record
Team	Rank	Rating	Sch Str	Overall	Region	Avg Fin	First	Odds
Grayson	12	79.70	69.00	7.24-2.76	6.05-1.95	2.30	403,686	1.48
Archer	16	77.35	70.71	6.33-3.67	5.63-2.37	2.87	254,352	2.93
Brookwood	20	74.58	71.16	5.66-4.34	5.14-2.86	3.57	146,629	5.82
Dacula	23	72.24	70.78	5.28-4.72	4.75-3.25	4.03	91,123	9.97
South Gwinnett	25	70.97	70.67	5.04-4.96	4.48-3.52	4.30	66,599	14.02
Parkview	27	68.47	67.05	5.25-4.75	4.05-3.96	5.18	34,519	27.97
Central Gwinnett	34	60.93	69.52	3.41-6.59	2.66-5.34	6.82	2,568	388.41
Shiloh	43	56.88	69.68	2.48-7.52	1.99-6.01	7.51	454	2,201.64
Berkmar	51	51.38	71.01	1.59-8.41	1.26-6.74	8.43	70	14,284.71