As Ernie Johnson Sr. would say, we’re getting down to cases. If the playoffs began today, the Braves wouldn’t qualify. This marks only the second September since 2017 that the Braves haven’t held first place throughout, and in the final month of 2022 they were always positioned to claim a wild card, which they wound up not needing. They caught the Mets and won the NL East via tiebreaker.
The differences this time: Neither holds first place, and both aren’t assured of a postseason berth. The Mets are 1-1/2 games behind San Diego for the second wild card; the Braves are a game behind the Mets for the third. The Braves have the easier schedule. The Mets have the wind at their back.
On Aug. 28, the Mets trailed the Braves by four games. The New Yorkers are 11-2 since; the Braves are 6-7. Since April 28, the Braves are 60-60.
They don’t lead the majors in player-days lost to injury – per Spotrac, they’re ninth in that category – but the Braves face the season’s final 17 days without these luminaries: Ronald Acuña, Ozzie Albies, Reynaldo Lopez, A.J. Minter, Austin Riley and Spencer Strider. Sean Murphy was hurt in the season opener and missed two months. Michael Harris was injured June 14 and returned Aug. 14.
The Braves are on track to win 88 games, which would constitute a 16-game slide from last year. Much of the slippage can be ascribed to injuries – much, though not all. Among their hitters, only Marcell Ozuna has had a 3.0 WAR season; last year, seven did.
As of 6 p.m. Tuesday, it was possible to believe the Braves’ starting pitching would carry them into October. Then Lopez, who among pitchers working 120 innings has MLB’s lowest ERA, was pulled after an inning in D.C. He landed on the injured list the next day. He’s done for the regular season. On Wednesday, Fried yielded four earned runs. Not since Aug. 10 had a Braves’ starter been hit so hard.
Now the Dodgers come to town. They’ve also had pitching issues – everybody has pitching issues – and haven’t had the dominant season expected of a team that added Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. They’ll still win the NL West, and they’ll be playing in Cobb County at the same time the Mets are working in Philly. For teams tracking the third wild card, it is officially crunch time.
Here’s how close this is: FanGraphs assigns the Mets a 55.8% chance of making the playoffs; it gives the Braves a 55.7% chance. The two will meet at Truist Park in the season’s final week. The Mets must first navigate seven games with the Phillies, who are in division-clinch mode. After four with the Dodgers, the Braves head to Cincinnati and then Miami. Advantage, Braves. Or so you’d think.
At this late date, this chase all but defies handicapping. After being swept at home by the Dodgers, the Mets were 22-33 on May 29 – 10 games behind the Braves. But Francisco Lindor has had the best season among National League non-DHs, and his home run in the ninth on Wednesday made us wonder if the Mets, who have a history of flops, might be destiny’s child this time around.
Toronto’s Bowden Francis had worked eight no-hit innings. The Mets were three outs from losing a series to the Blue Jays. Lindor’s blast tied the game and chased Francis. Against lesser pitchers, the Mets scored five runs. They nosed back ahead of the Braves, who hours later lost 5-1 in Washington.
That was Wednesday. Now it’s Friday, and we’re on to Braves-Dodgers and Mets-Phillies, and who knows anything? Say what you will about the 2024 Braves, but they have held our interest.
