It’s not as if the Braves haven’t hit. Even after losing five of six out West, they’re fourth in the majors in batting average and OPS. What became evident in Seattle and especially in L.A. is that they’re not hitting the way they’re built to hit.
The 2024 Braves are tied for 18th among 30 MLB clubs in home runs. They’ve averaged one per game. Last year they averaged a rounded-up 1.9. We knew they wouldn’t hit 307 homers again – in the history of the sport, no team had hit more – but production over the new season’s first fifth didn’t figure to diminish by half.
The Braves hit three home runs over the weekend at Dodger Stadium. They led for 2-1/2 of 29 innings. They were outscored 20-6. The home team hit nine homers. Of the Dodgers’ 20 runs, 12 came on HRs.
On Friday, Austin Riley hit a first-inning homer. It was his third of 2024. He had 37 last year. In the eighth inning, Ronald Acuña hit his second of the season. He had 41 in 2023. Matt Olson had three home runs over this season’s first eight games. He has none since. His batting average has shriveled to .197. In 2023, those three finished among the top seven in National League MVP voting.
Going by Baseball-Reference WAR, the top three Braves are Reynaldo Lopez, who this time last year was a White Sox reliever; Marcell Ozuna, who this time last year was hitting .157, and Travis d’Arnaud, who’s playing so often because Murphy tweaked an oblique on Opening Day.
Should we be concerned that the Braves have slipped 2-1/2 games behind rampaging Philly? Nah. They were eight games behind the Mets in June 2021 and won the World Series, 10-1/2 games behind the Mets again in July 2022 and still won the NL East. Two things, though: These Phillies might be better than those Mets, and these Braves haven’t yet seemed themselves.
Last September, Alex Anthopoulos spoke of the six division-winning teams he’d presided over since his arrival in November 2017: “The only time I thought we maybe weren’t as good as the other playoff clubs was 2018. … The lesson from 2018 was that we didn’t have enough power, and that led to the (Josh) Donaldson acquisition. After we lost him, that led to the Ozuna acquisition.”
The 2018 Braves finished 19th in home runs. Bolstered by Donaldson, they were eighth in 2019. In the years since, they’ve gone second, third, second and first. There are ways to score without hitting the ball over the wall, but facts are facts: Of the eight teams that finished with the highest homer totals in 2023, seven made the playoffs, which is where power really shows.
The Braves won the 2021 World Series by outhomering Houston 11-2. The Phillies won their 2023 NLDS by outhomering the Braves 11-3. The Rangers won the 2023 World Series by outhomering four opponents 30-16. To borrow yet again from Joe Sheehan: Ball go far, team go far.
Our annual reminder: It’s too early to fret. Good hitters in their prime – of the Braves’ usual lineup, only Ozuna and Olson are on the high side of 30 – tend to keep hitting, which isn’t to say good hitters don’t have bad months. The threesome of Acuña, Riley and Olson has accounted for nine seasons of 30-plus home runs. Over 32 games, those three have eight homers.
If nothing else, the lost weekend in L.A. squared perception with reality. In three days, the Braves slid from holding MLB’s best record to sixth-best. It didn’t hurt that 11 of their first 23 games were against the White Sox, Astros and Marlins, who are an aggregate 30-74. Now we note: Philly just went 15-3 against six opponents, none of which is above .500. Schedules even out.
It might be amusing to see the Braves finish second – no way they’ll finish below second – for a change. We know from recent experience that 100 wins buy you nothing in October. As Anthopoulos exclaimed during the Truist Park celebration in November 2021, flags fly forever. The banner commemorating that autumn doesn’t say, “88-73.” It says, and will always say, “World Series champ.”
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