Who knows why things happen the way they do? The Braves scored 27 runs over nine games – that’s three per – and went 3-6. The same Braves just scored 28 runs over four games – seven per – and went 3-1. They went from seven home runs in 10 outings to nine in a weekend set against Tampa Bay.
This being baseball, who knows anything? Before Saturday, Jarred Kelenic hadn’t started a game as a Brave batting above seventh in the order. With Michael Harris the latest entry on the injured list, Kelenic was bumped to leadoff. In the season’s first 70 games, the Braves got four homers from the No. 1 spot; they’ve gotten two in two games from Kelenic.
With six homers this season, Kelenic has 38 over four MLB seasons. Austin Riley, who averaged 36 home runs over the past three years, also has six. He hit three in his first 53 games; he hit three in three games over the weekend. Do I know what this all means? No. Nobody does.
This I do know. If the Braves hit just a bit better than they have, they should be OK. Even without Spencer Strider – more to the point, even with the fifth-starter slot having become a turnstile – the Braves’ rotation has an ERA of 3.90. The ERAs that matter most: Reynaldo Lopez, 1.69; Chris Sale, 2.98; Max Fried, 3.20. Health willing, those will be your playoff starters in Rounds 1 and 2.
By now, it will have occurred that these Braves aren’t apt to win their division. The Phillies have lost five of seven – their schedule toughened – but they still lead the NL East by eight games. It’s conceivable the Braves could catch them, though there’s no crying need. FanGraphs gives Philly a 13.5% chance of winning the World Series, not all that different from the Braves’ 9.1%.
Also of note: Mookie Betts has been lost for the foreseeable future with a broken hand. Surgery isn’t expected to be required, but still: The Dodgers are without an MVP-level talent, same as the Braves. (Difference is, Betts should be back this season.)
Enough big-picture stuff. For now, let’s assume the Braves’ hitting of the past few days wasn’t a blind-squirrel deal. It was always more likely than not that Riley would hit another home run, though he went 40 days without one. It was more likely than not that meager outputs of the past six weeks would revert to the mean. If this isn’t another historically great offense, neither should it be historically awful.
Even a great shooter needs to see the ball go through the hoop. Even proven hitters can, when they see middling numbers by their names, begin to wonder. We on the periphery forget that professional athletes are human; they have moments of doubt, same as us mortals. In sports, nobody knows why streaks, both bad and good, happen. Nobody knows when bad will become good – until it does.
This is, we remind you, baseball. What’s the definition of momentum in baseball? Today’s starting pitcher. But we also know that, from the spree of last summer to the nothing-happening-here of the past six weeks, how contagious both hitting and not-hitting can be. Minus Ronald Acuña Jr., the Braves’ ceiling is lower. Even so, that ceiling shouldn’t be three runs a game.
Over time, proven hitters should prove they can still hit. Fans often wonder why a baseball team can appear lifeless. It’s not that players have stopped caring. It’s that nobody celebrates a groundout to second base. Not-hitting can breed more not-hitting. Actual hitting can have the opposite effect.
We can’t know if the games ahead – first come the Tigers, then the Yankees in the Bronx – will mirror the weekend versus the Rays. At this moment, it’s possible to believe that proven hitters have begun to see the ball, as it were, go through the hoop. It’s possible to believe a team waiting for something to happen just saw it happen.
Oh, and today’s starting pitcher? Max Fried.
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