FLOWERY BRANCH — In viewing a much-anticipated return from an extended absence, the local populace will learn Sunday how eagerly it can look forward to the next several weeks.
Following Desmond Ridder’s two-game benching, Falcons fans will look to the quarterback to gauge how much longer the Falcons’ season will last. Either seven weeks until the end of the regular season or an extension into the playoffs. He’s a less furry and more upright version of Punxsutawney Phil.
Picture Ridder warming up at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday for the Falcons game against NFC South-rival New Orleans. From his owners box, Arthur Blank nervously scans the skies, fretting over whether Ridder will see his shadow.
Or something like that.
As he returns from his two-game hiatus backing up Taylor Heinicke after his eight-game run as the inconsistent No. 1, Ridder’s performance surely will factor heavily as the Falcons pursue the division title.
But coach Arthur Smith has other issues to address as the team comes out of its open week.
Namely, how are he, defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and their subordinates going to fix the run defense without defensive tackle Grady Jarrett?
The pronounced dip in the Falcons’ ability to stop opponents from charging through their defense may not have been caused entirely by the two-time Pro Bowler’s season-ending ACL tear, but it’s not a wacky coincidence, either.
The numbers paint a rather stark difference. In their past three games, against the Titans (when Jarrett tore his ACL on the defense’s first series of the game), Vikings and Cardinals, the Falcons allowed averages of 139 rushing yards and 4.4 yards per carry.
In the seven games to start the season, the averages were 95.3 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. The Falcons gave up an average of 2.4 runs of 10 yards or more in the first seven games and 3.7 in the past three, according to Pro Football Focus data.
The run-defense slide can be explained away if you’d prefer. Against Tennessee, the Falcons had to adjust on the fly with the sudden loss of Jarrett (as well as other defensive players who were sidelined at least temporarily) while facing tank-like running back Derrick Henry.
Against Minnesota, the problem wasn’t stopping the run, as much as it was containing quarterback Joshua Dobbs in the pocket (which is not a terribly comforting explanation). Against Arizona, the Falcons were without not only Jarrett but also defensive tackle David Onyemata (ankle), who is expected back to face the Saints, his former team.
The bigger issue may have been tackling – a major problem in the past three losses – instead of players staying in gaps, setting the edge and other run-game fundamentals (not that tackling isn’t one of them).
For better or worse, missed tackles and opponent yards after contact against the run were both up significantly in the past three games.
Still, Jarrett’s mix of explosiveness and relentlessness and his skill for creating havoc aren’t easily replaced. To think that the Falcons wouldn’t take a step back without him in the lineup is foolish.
On Wednesday, Smith addressed the topic, starting with Jarrett. His absence hasn’t been felt in his playmaking alone, the coach acknowledged.
“I’ll say this forever,” Smith said. “He’s one of the best natural leaders I’ve ever been around.”
His long history of production and his effort have earned his teammates’ respect and raised their play.
“He’s one of those guys that, if he’s out there, you know it’s full tilt, and you’d better be on his level,” Smith said.
Beyond that, Smith acknowledged that the tackling needs to be better. Rather than stopping runs for a 2-yard gain, poor fundamentals have allowed them to go for five or six. Smith offered his confidence that better run stopping could be restored.
“Because we’ve done it, I believe in our guys,” Smith said. “Some of it is getting back to basics and fundamentals.”
Whatever the problem, the Falcons need to find a fix, whether it’s a player like Onyemata or defensive end Calais Campbell filling the leadership void, tackling improving or maybe reaching out to Connor Stalions to see if he has any ideas.
As you might imagine, the outlook for a team that can’t stop the run consistently is bleak, no matter how much better Ridder has gotten since Smith sat him down midway through the loss to Tennessee.
Last season, there were 209 instances in which a team allowed its opponents to rush for at least 122 yards and average at least 4.1 yards per carry – the Falcons’ minimums in those two categories over the past three Jarrett-less games, according to sports-reference.com. Those teams had a winning percentage of .395 (81-125-3).
Cue the sad trombone music sound effect.
The return of Onyemata will help. His pairing with midseason arrival Kentavius Street should continue to improve. And if the Falcons can solve their tackling shortcomings, that will clean up some of the run-game problems.
Perhaps there’s hope to be found in the Falcons’ run defense.
And if they can’t make effective changes, if the loss of Jarrett is too much to bear?
Then the Falcons may be doomed to wake up every Sunday and repeat the misery of their past three games.
Kind of like, you know.
