Maxwell Week 8 projections

ajc.com

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Oct 22

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
67.47AAAAAALovejoy88.1%24 - 024TuckerAAAAAA
41.83AAAAASt. Pius X96.0%35 - 035LithoniaAAAAA
39.66AAAABainbridge98.1%35 - 035DoughertyAAAA
39.64AAAAAMundy's Mill50.4%17 - 170DrewAAAAA
33.71AAACarver (Atlanta)97.8%38 - 038RedanAAA
32.91AAAASpalding77.5%27 - 1413RutlandAAAA
32.25AANortheast92.5%31 - 724SouthwestAA
22.53AASouth Atlanta96.1%31 - 031TowersAA
10.47A PublicTerrell County89.3%24 - 024Calhoun CountyA Public
4.27AAAAHardaway99.8%45 - 045KendrickAAAA

Oct 23

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
84.88AAAAAWare County67.6%27 - 207CoffeeAAAAA
82.38AAACedar Grove70.8%21 - 138Greater Atlanta ChristianAAA
82.19AAAAAAACherokee63.8%20 - 146RoswellAAAAAAA
80.59AAAAAAANorcross90.4%28 - 028Mill CreekAAAAAAA
78.90AAAAABlessed Trinity73.4%26 - 1511CalhounAAAAA
74.66AAACrisp County81.7%21 - 714Peach CountyAAA
74.09AAAAAAAHillgrove81.9%28 - 1414WaltonAAAAAAA
73.21AAAAAAANorth Cobb78.8%23 - 1013HarrisonAAAAAAA
72.67AAAAAAASouth Forsyth59.3%25 - 214West ForsythAAAAAAA
72.01A PrivateAthens Academy59.4%21 - 201Prince Avenue ChristianA Private
69.86AAAAAACreekview69.0%19 - 910River RidgeAAAAAA
68.05AAAAAVeterans83.1%22 - 616Wayne CountyAAAAA
67.07AAAAAAAMarietta67.1%28 - 217North PauldingAAAAAAA
64.40AAAAAAADenmark61.5%19 - 145LambertAAAAAAA
63.70AAAAAAANorth Forsyth81.6%22 - 715Forsyth CentralAAAAAAA
63.64AACallaway75.5%22 - 139Haralson CountyAA
63.58AAAAAAAAlpharetta54.6%21 - 201WoodstockAAAAAAA
62.94AAAAAAATift County82.8%27 - 1215PerryAAAA
62.30AAAAAADouglas County81.0%22 - 715South PauldingAAAAAA
61.87AAAAWest Laurens60.0%21 - 174BaldwinAAAA
61.36AAAAAOla77.8%28 - 1711Union GroveAAAAA
60.82A PublicDublin63.9%21 - 174Wilcox CountyA Public
60.45AAAAAAAlexander85.3%27 - 720DaltonAAAAAA
60.20AAAAAHarris County74.5%21 - 138NorthgateAAAAA
60.19AAAAAAAEast Coweta92.9%34 - 925PebblebrookAAAAAAA
59.78AAAOconee County95.8%34 - 034Hart CountyAAA
59.35AAAAAABrunswick76.6%21 - 912StatesboroAAAAAA
59.19AAAACedartown71.5%21 - 138Northwest WhitfieldAAAA
59.11AAAAAARome85.8%28 - 919East PauldingAAAAAA
58.87AAAAAAAMilton95.5%31 - 031EtowahAAAAAAA
58.84AAFitzgerald91.5%28 - 028Early CountyAA
58.44AAAAAACarrollton92.8%34 - 727Paulding CountyAAAAAA
57.91A PrivateEagle's Landing Christian86.1%24 - 618Pace AcademyAA
57.78A PublicTurner County50.4%21 - 210Clinch CountyA Public
57.09AAACentral (Macon)51.1%21 - 210Upson-LeeAAA
57.01AAAAAALanier90.7%33 - 1221Central GwinnettAAAAAA
56.94AAAAAStockbridge63.7%24 - 204Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAAA
56.79AAAAJefferson97.2%31 - 031Cedar ShoalsAAAA
56.53AAAAFlowery Branch84.8%31 - 1417North OconeeAAAA
54.74AAAAThomas County Central67.0%21 - 147WestoverAAAA
54.45AAAAAEastside59.1%21 - 192LoganvilleAAAAA
54.30AAHeard County51.4%20 - 200TempleAA
53.83AAAAHoward61.0%21 - 183Westside (Macon)AAAA
53.56AAVidalia50.8%18 - 171Jeff DavisAA
53.15AAAStephens County64.1%21 - 147Franklin CountyAAA
53.11AAAWestminster (Atlanta)86.0%23 - 023DouglassAAA
53.05AAAAAJones County93.0%34 - 727Locust GroveAAAAA
52.80AAThomasville87.8%28 - 721Worth CountyAA
52.44AAAAAAHughes91.4%26 - 026North AtlantaAAAAAA
51.29AAAAASouthwest DeKalb66.2%21 - 147M.L. KingAAAAA
51.10AAAAAADacula96.6%36 - 036Habersham CentralAAAAAA
50.20A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)61.6%19 - 145Whitefield AcademyA Private
50.11AAAAAAWheeler50.1%14 - 140PopeAAAAAA
49.71AAAACentral (Carrollton)80.0%27 - 1413Heritage (Ringgold)AAAA
48.60AAAAAAShiloh89.0%28 - 721Winder-BarrowAAAAAA
47.73AAAAAClarke Central89.9%28 - 622Walnut GroveAAAAA
47.37AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)95.2%28 - 028LuellaAAAA
47.35AAAJackson68.3%24 - 177Americus-SumterAAA
47.04AAAAAAAMcEachern96.6%34 - 034CampbellAAAAAAA
46.99AABleckley County91.0%33 - 1221Lamar CountyAA
46.44AAAAMays76.8%24 - 1311Arabia MountainAAAA
46.34A PublicBrooks County94.6%33 - 033Lanier CountyA Public
46.34AAAAADutchtown91.6%22 - 022Eagle's LandingAAAAA
45.99AAAAAARichmond Hill98.5%35 - 035Effingham CountyAAAAAA
45.97AAAAAAGlynn Academy87.6%28 - 919South EffinghamAAAAAA
45.90AAAAAAHeritage (Conyers)62.4%20 - 146Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
45.84AAABurke County90.3%34 - 1420HarlemAAA
45.51A PublicMacon County83.6%26 - 719Schley CountyA Public
45.16A PrivateNorth Cobb Christian86.2%27 - 720BowdonA Public
44.53A PrivateHebron Christian72.2%27 - 189Mount Vernon PresbyterianA Private
44.48AAAAACartersville99.2%41 - 041HiramAAAAA
43.94AAAACairo90.4%28 - 622MonroeAAAA
43.57A PrivateStratford Academy73.9%21 - 138Mount de SalesA Private
43.57AAAAALithia Springs69.8%22 - 148Maynard JacksonAAAAA
43.48A PublicMontgomery County59.4%21 - 174Johnson CountyA Public
42.32AAAAACass93.0%28 - 028Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
42.32AAARichmond Academy86.1%28 - 919HephzibahAAA
42.13A PublicIrwin County97.9%35 - 035Atkinson CountyA Public
41.79AAARinggold71.7%27 - 198LaFayetteAAA
41.01AAAAAAWestlake98.8%39 - 039MorrowAAAAAA
40.71AAAAAARockdale County85.3%28 - 1216SalemAAA
40.66AAAARidgeland52.5%20 - 182PickensAAAA
39.82AAToombs County92.2%30 - 624Bacon CountyAA
38.45AAAAAASprayberry97.1%38 - 038LassiterAAAAAA
37.18AAADawson County95.2%34 - 034GilmerAAA
36.95AADodge County92.6%33 - 726MonticelloAA
36.68AAAMary Persons88.8%28 - 820Pike CountyAAA
35.88A PrivateFirst Presbyterian76.0%21 - 129Tattnall SquareA Private
35.86A PublicDooly County65.2%21 - 156HawkinsvilleA Public
35.79AAAAStephenson96.7%28 - 028Miller GroveAAAA
35.56AAAATroup91.7%31 - 724ShawAAAA
35.23A PublicGordon Lee80.5%28 - 1414Mount Zion (Carroll)A Public
34.64A PrivateDarlington89.3%24 - 024Mount Paran ChristianA Private
34.34AAAAIslands90.5%31 - 1021BeachAAA
33.79AAChattooga75.8%26 - 1412CoosaAA
33.78A PrivateGeorge Walton Academy94.1%31 - 031Athens ChristianA Private
33.58A PrivateMount Pisgah Christian79.3%27 - 1413ChambleeAAAAA
33.39AAWashington85.9%28 - 1315TherrellAA
33.13GISA AASouthwest Georgia Academy60.6%29 - 263Valwood SchoolGISA AAA
33.04AAAAFayette County85.0%24 - 618McDonoughAAAA
32.74AAAMonroe Area96.3%36 - 630East JacksonAAA
32.68AAARockmart98.5%40 - 040Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
32.38AAAWhite County96.9%35 - 035West HallAAA
32.23AAAWindsor Forest87.5%28 - 721Johnson (Savannah)AAA
31.95A PrivateStrong Rock Christian65.3%21 - 165Deerfield-WindsorA Private
31.88AALovett97.3%35 - 035KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA
31.86AAAAANorthview84.3%28 - 1216Stone MountainAAAAA
31.71AAASonoraville76.4%28 - 1810Murray CountyAAA
31.26A PrivateFellowship Christian98.9%38 - 038DunwoodyAAAAAAA
30.83AAAAEast Hall82.6%30 - 1614ChestateeAAAA
30.55AAAAAChapel Hill95.3%34 - 034GradyAAAAA
30.55AAAAAAKennesaw Mountain91.1%32 - 923South CobbAAAAAA
30.46A PublicLincoln County85.5%28 - 1216Social CircleA Public
29.87A PublicPelham95.7%34 - 034Miller CountyA Public
29.21A PrivateLakeview Academy55.6%19 - 154King's Ridge ChristianA Private
28.91AACook98.1%37 - 037BerrienAA
27.82AAUnion County92.4%29 - 326Banks CountyAA
26.55A PublicWheeler County86.6%29 - 1316TreutlenA Public
25.00GISA AAPiedmont Academy55.9%21 - 192Thomas JeffersonGISA AA
24.69AAAAAAKell99.4%43 - 043OsborneAAAAAA
23.92A PublicManchester87.1%29 - 1316GreenvilleA Public
23.75AAJefferson County97.1%33 - 033Oglethorpe CountyAA
23.33AAAPierce County99.7%42 - 042Brantley CountyAAA
23.23A PublicScreven County90.7%30 - 723Tattnall CountyAAA
22.72AAAAAAABerkmar58.9%22 - 202Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
22.69AAModel93.4%34 - 727Dade CountyAA
22.04AAWestside (Augusta)83.2%21 - 021ButlerAA
21.06GISA AAABrookwood School80.7%28 - 1414Edmund Burke AcademyGISA AA
20.69GISA AAGatewood School92.0%24 - 024Southland AcademyGISA AAA
20.08GISA AAAWestfield School87.6%31 - 1318Briarwood AcademyGISA AA
18.58AAAACarver (Columbus)99.5%42 - 042JordanAAAA
17.43AAAAAAADuluth96.9%34 - 034North ClaytonAAAA
17.39AAAANew Hampstead98.7%38 - 038SavannahAAA
17.35A PrivateChristian Heritage99.1%40 - 040WalkerA Private
16.30AALaney90.7%27 - 027JoseyAA
15.88A PublicB.E.S.T. Academy94.1%28 - 028ArmucheeA Public
15.74A PrivateHoly Innocents98.2%40 - 040Providence ChristianA Private
15.23A PublicWashington-Wilkes99.2%42 - 042Greene CountyA Public
14.97A PublicCommerce99.4%42 - 042Towns CountyA Public
13.96AAAAppling County99.9%48 - 048Long CountyAAA
13.16AAAAColumbus88.3%28 - 820SpencerAAAA
12.47GISA AAAFrederica Academy96.6%33 - 033Memorial DayGISA AA
12.37A PrivateLoganville Christian75.2%23 - 149Bethlehem Christian AcademyGISA AAA
11.69AAAAAJonesboro99.3%37 - 037Forest ParkAAAAA
9.41AAPutnam County99.6%42 - 042Glenn HillsAA
9.19AAAAAVilla Rica98.2%39 - 039North SpringsAAAAA
8.86A PublicSeminole County88.9%30 - 1020Randolph-ClayA Public
8.69AAAThomson99.8%42 - 042Cross CreekAAA
8.66AAEast Laurens92.3%28 - 028Baconton CharterA Public
8.36AAAAJenkins99.5%41 - 041GrovesAAA
6.98AAAAAJackson County99.1%40 - 040Johnson (Gainesville)AAAAA
6.85A PublicHancock Central98.1%39 - 039ACE CharterA Public
6.31GISA AAAPinewood Christian97.7%33 - 033St. Andrew's SchoolGISA AAA
5.97GISA AAABulloch Academy98.4%38 - 038Trinity Christian (Dublin)GISA AAA
4.01AAASoutheast Bulloch99.3%41 - 041Bryan CountyA Public
-0.95A PublicTaylor County99.6%45 - 045Central (Talbotton)A Public
-5.99AAANorth Hall99.9%46 - 046Lumpkin CountyAAA
-7.26A PublicGeorgia Military College95.0%28 - 028Crawford CountyA Public
-9.71GISA AAACreekside Christian99.3%42 - 042Augusta PrepGISA AA

Oct 24

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
41.34AAAAAGriffin91.8%34 - 1222Northside (Columbus)AAAAA
31.34AAAAAWhitewater93.9%32 - 329McIntoshAAAAA
26.03AAAAdairsville94.7%28 - 028Coahulla CreekAAA
13.86AAANorth Murray99.0%42 - 042Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
6.36AAColumbia98.5%35 - 035McNairAA

Oct 26

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
56.23AAAAAACambridge50.7%20 - 200SequoyahAAAAAA
54.14AAAAACreekside72.1%20 - 1010Tri-CitiesAAAAA
41.62AAAAABanneker67.3%19 - 127DrewAAAAA
26.87AAPepperell92.8%29 - 029Gordon CentralAA

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