Maxwell Week 7 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Oct 15

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
52.90AAWashington County75.5%23 - 1310NortheastAA
51.31AAAAAGriffin84.1%27 - 1215WhitewaterAAAAA
48.49AAAAALocust Grove71.5%21 - 138Eagle's LandingAAAAA
46.70AAAAThomas County Central84.3%27 - 1215MonroeAAAA
45.88AAAAAALovejoy97.7%32 - 032MorrowAAAAAA
43.83AAAAANew Manchester78.3%21 - 912Maynard JacksonAAAAA
35.77A PublicClinch County96.3%35 - 035Pinewood ChristianGISA AAA
35.25AAAAANorthside (Columbus)82.5%29 - 1415McIntoshAAAAA
35.12AASouth Atlanta87.3%27 - 621TherrellAA
34.93AAACedar Grove99.8%42 - 042RedanAAA
20.73AAAAFayette County94.3%26 - 026North ClaytonAAAA
16.22A PublicWilkinson County70.2%21 - 138Georgia Military CollegeA Public
12.30AAAATroup99.5%42 - 042KendrickAAAA
6.89A PublicACE Charter60.2%28 - 244Crawford CountyA Public

Oct 16

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
86.14AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett54.7%13 - 112Mill CreekAAAAAAA
80.39AAAAAVeterans66.9%17 - 89Houston CountyAAAAAA
79.70AAAAAAAGrayson92.3%28 - 028South GwinnettAAAAAAA
76.01AAAABenedictine52.4%23 - 212Appling CountyAAA
75.08AAAAAALee County94.6%28 - 028Tift CountyAAAAAAA
74.61AAAAAAWestlake54.8%21 - 201HughesAAAAAA
73.05AAAAAWarner Robins92.3%31 - 724Camden CountyAAAAAAA
72.91AAAAAAANewnan74.8%28 - 208North PauldingAAAAAAA
72.02AAAAAAAWest Forsyth71.1%21 - 147North ForsythAAAAAAA
71.09AAAAAAAParkview81.8%24 - 915NewtonAAAAAAA
70.81AAAAACartersville82.4%21 - 615CassAAAAA
70.22AAAAAAABrookwood92.0%35 - 1421Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
69.53AAAAMarist87.7%27 - 621Hapeville CharterAAAA
67.90AAAAAAAMilton88.2%24 - 024AlpharettaAAAAAAA
65.62A PrivateAthens Academy71.8%20 - 128WesleyanA Private
65.54AAAAAACarrollton83.6%28 - 1414South PauldingAAAAAA
65.52AAAAAARome69.8%22 - 148DaltonAAAAAA
64.79AAAAAAAlexander67.8%24 - 177East PauldingAAAAAA
64.47AAAABainbridge83.1%27 - 1215CairoAAAA
64.28AAAAAAAGainesville74.5%26 - 1511LambertAAAAAAA
64.10AAAAAARiverwood50.2%21 - 210River RidgeAAAAAA
63.59AAAAAAACherokee92.3%30 - 624WoodstockAAAAAAA
62.75AAAAAStarr's Mill80.2%24 - 1212NorthgateAAAAA
62.69AAAAAAACollins Hill90.9%30 - 723Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
62.14AAAAAAADenmark66.4%21 - 147Forsyth CentralAAAAAAA
61.98AAAAAACreekview78.3%21 - 714SequoyahAAAAAA
61.70AAAAWest Laurens64.3%21 - 147HowardAAAA
61.60AAAStephens County53.1%17 - 152Monroe AreaAAA
61.56AAAAAARichmond Hill94.0%33 - 627StatesboroAAAAAA
61.38AAAAAAShiloh59.8%21 - 174Central GwinnettAAAAAA
60.91AAAAASt. Pius X77.6%24 - 1311Southwest DeKalbAAAAA
60.80AAAWestminster (Atlanta)76.8%25 - 1411Carver (Atlanta)AAA
60.76AAAAAClarke Central76.7%24 - 1410EastsideAAAAA
60.46AAAAAWoodward Academy64.7%20 - 146JonesboroAAAAA
60.11AAARockmart77.5%27 - 1413North MurrayAAA
59.86AARabun County79.3%28 - 1414PopeAAAAAA
59.63A PrivateEagle's Landing Christian81.0%23 - 716Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)A Private
59.03AAThomasville82.3%24 - 816Early CountyAA
59.00AAAAAAARoswell95.2%31 - 031EtowahAAAAAAA
58.97AAAACentral (Carrollton)53.3%20 - 182Northwest WhitfieldAAAA
58.09AAAAAABuford95.3%35 - 332Habersham CentralAAAAAA
57.89AAAAAAAArcher96.3%37 - 631MeadowcreekAAAAAAA
57.74A PrivatePrince Avenue Christian83.7%30 - 1416Hebron ChristianA Private
56.44AAAJackson51.1%20 - 200Central (Macon)AAA
56.36AALovett85.2%23 - 617Pace AcademyAA
55.59AAAAAStockbridge74.2%22 - 139Heritage (Conyers)AAAAAA
55.51AAAThomson85.0%26 - 719Richmond AcademyAAA
54.92A PrivateHoly Innocents58.9%20 - 164George Walton AcademyA Private
54.91AAAHart County73.0%23 - 149Franklin CountyAAA
54.77AAAGreater Atlanta Christian96.2%31 - 031DouglassAAA
54.66AAAACarver (Columbus)79.6%30 - 1911LaGrangeAAAA
54.24AAACrisp County97.1%34 - 034Mary PersonsAAA
53.79A PrivateDarlington65.6%23 - 185BremenAA
53.39AAAAAADouglas County95.6%28 - 028Paulding CountyAAAAAA
53.22AAAAAAJohns Creek87.9%28 - 721ChattahoocheeAAAAAA
53.03A PublicMacon County59.4%21 - 192Taylor CountyA Public
52.96AACook69.4%24 - 168Worth CountyAA
52.57AAAAAAAllatoona96.2%30 - 030WheelerAAAAAA
52.50AAAAAATucker87.6%28 - 721North AtlantaAAAAAA
51.77AAPepperell56.0%21 - 201Fannin CountyAA
51.67AAAAAAGlynn Academy84.5%27 - 1017Bradwell InstituteAAAAAA
50.48AAAAAABrunswick87.8%27 - 720South EffinghamAAAAAA
50.02AAAAAADacula97.7%38 - 038Winder-BarrowAAAAAA
49.95A PublicTurner County68.1%23 - 167Charlton CountyA Public
49.91A PrivateCalvary Day67.1%21 - 147Stratford AcademyA Private
49.56A PublicMcIntosh County Academy57.8%21 - 201Emanuel County InstituteA Public
49.54AAAUpson-Lee80.8%24 - 1014Americus-SumterAAA
49.21A PrivateAquinas72.9%26 - 1610Mount de SalesA Private
48.71AAAAdairsville62.4%23 - 203RinggoldAAA
48.65AAAWhite County93.0%35 - 1223North HallAAA
48.21A PrivateSavannah Christian81.5%28 - 1414First PresbyterianA Private
47.78AAAAAChapel Hill74.2%24 - 1410Villa RicaAAAAA
47.64AAAACedar Shoals84.2%22 - 616Madison CountyAAAA
47.39AAAAAACambridge75.8%25 - 1411CentennialAAAAAA
47.36AAAAACalhoun97.3%35 - 035HiramAAAAA
47.21AAAAPerry85.2%25 - 718SpaldingAAAA
46.84AAALiberty County79.3%24 - 1212Southeast BullochAAA
46.44AAAAAALassiter55.6%20 - 191Kennesaw MountainAAAAAA
46.14AAAAJenkins88.3%27 - 621Windsor ForestAAA
46.13AAAAADecatur69.9%21 - 147LithoniaAAAAA
46.07A PublicMetter91.3%28 - 028Screven CountyA Public
45.89A PublicBrooks County93.8%31 - 229Atkinson CountyA Public
45.84AAAAAMundy's Mill50.0%21 - 210Tri-CitiesAAAAA
45.50AAAAAAADiscovery50.7%20 - 200DuluthAAAAAAA
44.85A PublicGordon Lee57.0%21 - 201BowdonA Public
44.55AAColumbia67.0%22 - 166WashingtonAA
43.73A PublicIrwin County97.5%35 - 035Lanier CountyA Public
43.70AAAACedartown95.3%28 - 028PickensAAAA
43.42AAJeff Davis82.1%27 - 1314Bacon CountyAA
42.93A PublicDooly County55.7%21 - 201Montgomery CountyA Public
42.84AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)76.9%24 - 1311RidgelandAAAA
42.69AAAMorgan County85.1%27 - 720HephzibahAAA
42.65A PublicMarion County74.2%23 - 149ManchesterA Public
42.43AAAAAGreenbrier80.8%27 - 1413ApalacheeAAAAA
42.34AAAAWestover82.4%25 - 1015DoughertyAAAA
41.88AABleckley County93.6%34 - 727MonticelloAA
41.67AAAANew Hampstead85.1%28 - 1315BeachAAA
41.64AAAAAAEvans82.9%23 - 716GrovetownAAAAAA
41.61AAAPeach County97.9%35 - 035Pike CountyAAA
41.34AALamar County74.2%26 - 1511SouthwestAA
40.58AAAAACoffee99.4%41 - 041SalemAAA
39.91AAModel58.1%18 - 144CoosaAA
39.51A PublicJohnson County68.5%21 - 138Telfair CountyA Public
39.34AAACherokee Bluff81.1%22 - 715West HallAAA
39.20AAAAArabia Mountain72.4%19 - 712Miller GroveAAAA
38.83AAAARiverdale84.2%26 - 719Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
38.53A PublicWarren County57.6%19 - 145Hancock CentralA Public
37.41AAAALuella81.7%24 - 816HamptonAAAA
37.20GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy96.6%35 - 035Valwood SchoolGISA AAA
36.84AAHaralson County94.9%34 - 628Creekside ChristianGISA AAA
35.87AAAAAAKell98.8%42 - 042South CobbAAAAAA
35.81AAAAHardaway95.6%35 - 629ColumbusAAAA
33.28AAASonoraville85.2%27 - 819Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
33.20A PublicWashington-Wilkes93.3%35 - 827Social CircleA Public
33.13AAAANorth Oconee95.1%38 - 1028ChestateeAAAA
32.91A PrivateMount Paran Christian64.2%15 - 96King's Ridge ChristianA Private
32.51A PrivateSavannah Country Day81.3%27 - 1314Deerfield-WindsorA Private
32.43AAAOconee County99.8%45 - 045East JacksonAAA
32.42AAFitzgerald99.5%41 - 041BerrienAA
32.41A PrivateFellowship Christian99.1%40 - 040Lakeview AcademyA Private
32.27AAAABaldwin96.6%35 - 035RutlandAAAA
31.68AASwainsboro96.2%33 - 033East LaurensAA
30.11GISA AATerrell Academy56.8%20 - 164Westfield SchoolGISA AAA
29.02A PrivateTattnall Square84.0%27 - 1017Brookwood SchoolGISA AAA
28.62AAAAShaw78.0%24 - 1311JordanAAAA
28.56A PublicTerrell County76.0%24 - 1410Miller CountyA Public
28.11A PublicB.E.S.T. Academy83.1%28 - 1414Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
27.55AAVidalia95.7%32 - 032Tattnall CountyAAA
27.35AALaney72.7%19 - 712ButlerAA
27.23AAACoahulla Creek71.4%24 - 168Murray CountyAAA
26.93AAAAAAANorcross100.0%49 - 049BerkmarAAAAAAA
26.57AAAAAASprayberry99.2%42 - 042OsborneAAAAAA
26.38AAAAAAADunwoody88.0%28 - 721ChambleeAAAAA
26.21GISA AAACreekside Christian79.4%28 - 1513Piedmont AcademyGISA AA
25.50A PrivateWhitefield Academy94.8%31 - 031Heritage SchoolA Private
25.45AAAJohnson (Savannah)59.1%21 - 174SavannahAAA
24.60AAPutnam County97.8%34 - 034Oglethorpe CountyAA
24.59AAWestside (Augusta)76.3%22 - 139JoseyAA
24.25A PrivateBrookstone88.3%28 - 820Landmark ChristianA Private
23.86GISA AASouthwest Georgia Academy81.0%27 - 1413Southland AcademyGISA AAA
23.46A PrivateMount Vernon Presbyterian93.3%34 - 727Loganville ChristianA Private
20.63A PrivateAthens Christian89.4%28 - 721Providence ChristianA Private
20.43A PublicTrion83.5%31 - 1615Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
20.39GISA AAGatewood School92.8%31 - 625Briarwood AcademyGISA AA
19.18AAAAAGrady82.4%28 - 1414North SpringsAAAAA
17.99A PublicMount Zion (Carroll)92.4%24 - 024ArmucheeA Public
17.60A PrivateSt. Francis80.5%24 - 1212WalkerA Private
16.74AAAHarlem95.5%30 - 030Cross CreekAAA
16.63A PublicJenkins County81.3%24 - 1014PortalA Public
16.25A PublicCommerce99.4%42 - 042Greene CountyA Public
15.13AAAAAWalnut Grove97.2%35 - 035Johnson (Gainesville)AAAAA
14.85A PublicSeminole County76.6%21 - 1011Calhoun CountyA Public
13.80A PublicPelham99.3%42 - 042Randolph-ClayA Public
13.75AATowers79.4%23 - 1013McNairAA
12.21GISA AAABulloch Academy97.8%35 - 035Memorial DayGISA AA
10.12GISA AAEdmund Burke Academy72.9%23 - 149Glascock CountyA Public
9.01AAAAIslands99.3%41 - 041GrovesAAA
6.88A PublicClaxton98.5%40 - 040Bryan CountyA Public
6.38AAAGilmer97.5%35 - 035Lumpkin CountyAAA
5.42GISA AAATiftarea Academy98.8%41 - 041Trinity Christian (Dublin)GISA AAA
3.30GISA AAASt. Andrew's School53.0%14 - 140Robert Toombs AcademyGISA AA
-3.08A PublicChattahoochee County99.7%42 - 042Central (Talbotton)A Public
-3.68GISA AABrentwood School99.2%42 - 042Augusta PrepGISA AA
-10.27A PublicPataula Charter63.9%16 - 106Cross KeysAAAAA

Oct 17

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
46.66A PublicWilcox County78.2%28 - 1414Wheeler CountyA Public
36.66AAAAAM.L. King84.6%26 - 719Stone MountainAAAAA
33.95A PublicDublin98.3%38 - 038HawkinsvilleA Public
15.04AAAAMays99.3%41 - 041Druid HillsAAAA

Oct 20

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
48.04AAAAAWhitewater62.4%21 - 183Northside (Columbus)AAAAA
34.44AAANorth Murray93.4%31 - 625Coahulla CreekAAA

About the Author

In Other News