These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each gameâs rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a teamâs median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each teamâs median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
Friday
Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
96.26 | AAAAAAA | Colquitt County | 56.8% | 28-27 | 1 | Carrollton | AAAAAAA |
92.03 | AAAAAAA | Mill Creek | 72.5% | 28-20 | 8 | Milton | AAAAAAA |
89.03 | AAAAAA | Hughes | 86.5% | 35-20 | 15 | Rome | AAAAAA |
86.20 | AAAAAA | Roswell | 66.3% | 28-21 | 7 | Gainesville | AAAAAA |
84.60 | AAAA | Cedartown | 66.7% | 21-14 | 7 | North Oconee | AAAA |
78.06 | A Division I | Irwin County | 52.1% | 21-21 | 0 | Swainsboro | A Division I |
74.46 | AAAAA | Cartersville | 69.5% | 27-20 | 7 | Warner Robins | AAAAA |
72.70 | AAA | Sandy Creek | 73.5% | 27-17 | 10 | Carver (Atlanta) | AAA |
71.66 | AAA | Cedar Grove | 91.6% | 31-8 | 23 | Oconee County | AAA |
71.47 | AAAA | Benedictine | 88.2% | 33-14 | 19 | Troup | AAAA |
70.10 | AAAAA | Ware County | 92.9% | 27-0 | 27 | Dutchtown | AAAAA |
68.65 | AA | Appling County | 58.1% | 21-20 | 1 | Thomson | AA |
64.91 | AA | Fitzgerald | 79.9% | 26-14 | 12 | Fellowship Christian | AA |
62.48 | A Division I | Prince Avenue Christian | 88.1% | 29-13 | 16 | St. Francis | A Division I |
53.97 | A Division II | Johnson County | 56.9% | 21-20 | 1 | Schley County | A Division II |
49.73 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | St. Anne-Pacelli | 59.9% | 21-20 | 1 | Stratford Academy | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
44.32 | A Division II | Bowdon | 90.6% | 35-14 | 21 | Lincoln County | A Division II |
38.38 | GIAA AAAA-AAA | John Milledge Academy | 94.2% | 31-0 | 31 | Deerfield-Windsor | GIAA AAAA-AAA |
26.96 | GIAA AA | Central Fellowship Christian | 85.2% | 30-14 | 16 | Brentwood School | GIAA AA |
17.54 | GIAA A | Thomas Jefferson | 72.9% | 30-21 | 9 | Robert Toombs Academy | GIAA A |
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