Maxwell Semifinal projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Friday

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
96.26AAAAAAAColquitt County56.8%28-271CarrolltonAAAAAAA
92.03AAAAAAAMill Creek72.5%28-208MiltonAAAAAAA
89.03AAAAAAHughes86.5%35-2015RomeAAAAAA
86.20AAAAAARoswell66.3%28-217GainesvilleAAAAAA
84.60AAAACedartown66.7%21-147North OconeeAAAA
78.06A Division IIrwin County52.1%21-210SwainsboroA Division I
74.46AAAAACartersville69.5%27-207Warner RobinsAAAAA
72.70AAASandy Creek73.5%27-1710Carver (Atlanta)AAA
71.66AAACedar Grove91.6%31-823Oconee CountyAAA
71.47AAAABenedictine88.2%33-1419TroupAAAA
70.10AAAAAWare County92.9%27-027DutchtownAAAAA
68.65AAAppling County58.1%21-201ThomsonAA
64.91AAFitzgerald79.9%26-1412Fellowship ChristianAA
62.48A Division IPrince Avenue Christian88.1%29-1316St. FrancisA Division I
53.97A Division IIJohnson County56.9%21-201Schley CountyA Division II
49.73GIAA AAAA-AAASt. Anne-Pacelli59.9%21-201Stratford AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
44.32A Division IIBowdon90.6%35-1421Lincoln CountyA Division II
38.38GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy94.2%31-031Deerfield-WindsorGIAA AAAA-AAA
26.96GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian85.2%30-1416Brentwood SchoolGIAA AA
17.54GIAA AThomas Jefferson72.9%30-219Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA A