Maxwell Second Round projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Friday

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
93.87AAAAAAAMill Creek55.4%27-252North CobbAAAAAAA
87.24AAAAAAABuford86.5%28-1216WaltonAAAAAAA
80.28AAAAAAAWestlake67.6%27-216ParkviewAAAAAAA
79.09AAAAAAAGrayson59.9%21-192Camden CountyAAAAAAA
78.40AAAAAAALambert64.2%28-217North GwinnettAAAAAAA
77.08AAAAAAACarrollton90.5%30-822MariettaAAAAAAA
76.70AAAAAALee County74.3%27-1611Woodward AcademyAAAAAA
75.13AAAAAAAMilton87.3%28-1315NorcrossAAAAAAA
74.52AAAAAAGainesville77.4%30-219South PauldingAAAAAA
74.40AAAAACartersville56.4%27-243CambridgeAAAAA
73.59AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)69.2%22-148MaristAAAAAA
72.42AAAAAARome88.0%34-1420AlpharettaAAAAAA
72.16AAASandy Creek57.8%22-211Stephens CountyAAA
71.53AAAABainbridge65.8%24-195Burke CountyAAAA
70.46AAAAPerry84.5%28-1315Wayne CountyAAAA
68.86AAAAAARoswell92.0%30-723AllatoonaAAAAAA
68.59AAACarver (Atlanta)55.4%21-201Monroe AreaAAA
67.85AAAAACalhoun66.6%28-217KellAAAAA
66.44AAAAAAAColquitt County98.3%40-040HarrisonAAAAAAA
64.83AAAPeach County64.7%23-194Savannah ChristianAAA
63.71AAAAAAHouston County90.7%33-1320North AtlantaAAAAAA
63.59A Division IPrince Avenue Christian86.9%35-2015Elbert CountyA Division I
63.14AAAOconee County70.7%30-228AdairsvilleAAA
62.87AAACalvary Day79.6%32-2111DoughertyAAA
62.64AAAAACreekside88.7%28-820DaltonAAAAA
62.55AAACedar Grove96.6%39-732Hebron ChristianAAA
62.49AAAAAAHughes98.6%42-636North ForsythAAAAAA
61.72AAThomson66.1%26-206CookAA
61.15AAAAHoly Innocents58.5%22-202Central (Carrollton)AAAA
59.63AAAAAWarner Robins81.8%28-1513Northside (Columbus)AAAAA
59.60AAACarver (Columbus)67.1%20-137HarlemAAA
59.58AAAACedartown97.7%35-035StephensonAAAA
59.54A Division IBleckley County66.7%23-176Lamar CountyA Division I
59.48AAAAAMays67.9%27-207CassAAAAA
59.32A Division IMetter59.3%19-145DublinA Division I
58.41AAAAAAThomas County Central98.9%41-041St. Pius XAAAAAA
58.13AAAATroup86.6%34-1717CairoAAAA
56.59AAFitzgerald92.9%30-624Putnam CountyAA
55.97AAAppling County86.1%28-1018NortheastAA
54.10AAAANorth Oconee97.3%31-031LovettAAAA
53.48A Division ISt. Francis72.1%26-179TrionA Division I
53.05AAAABenedictine98.3%35-035SpaldingAAAA
52.81AARockmart90.5%28-721North Cobb ChristianAA
52.01AAAThomasville89.0%30-1218Liberty CountyAAA
51.52AAAAStockbridge90.7%29-722Walnut GroveAAAA
51.38AACallaway79.3%27-1413Fannin CountyAA
51.12A Division IRabun County94.3%30-030Social CircleA Division I
50.32AAFellowship Christian83.5%32-1814Eagle's Landing ChristianAA
50.20AAPierce County93.3%38-1424BerrienAA
49.36A Division IDarlington93.2%38-1424Mount Pisgah ChristianA Division I
49.18A Division IIClinch County54.7%20-191McIntosh County AcademyA Division II
48.48AAAAADutchtown94.8%28-028NorthgateAAAAA
48.09AAAAAWare County99.4%41-041ChambleeAAAAA
47.45AAAAACoffee95.9%38-1028DecaturAAAAA
47.11AASouth Atlanta91.1%35-1421Union CountyAA
44.43A Division IIEarly County73.8%28-208Telfair CountyA Division II
43.76A Division IIJohnson County80.7%28-1414Christian HeritageA Division II
42.51A Division IIBowdon91.7%33-1221ManchesterA Division II
40.19A Division IIrwin County99.1%39-039Heard CountyA Division I
40.14A Division IICharlton County88.5%32-1418Dooly CountyA Division II
39.53A Division IIWilcox County69.8%27-207Lanier CountyA Division II
38.53A Division IISchley County89.1%28-721Washington-WilkesA Division II
36.98A Division ISwainsboro99.1%37-037Screven CountyA Division I
33.47GIAA AAAA-AAABrookstone81.7%31-1912First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
31.13GIAA AAAA-AAATattnall Square90.8%36-1719Westfield SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
29.69A Division IILincoln County87.5%26-719Wilkinson CountyA Division II
27.42GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor71.9%27-189Frederica AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
27.21GIAA AAAA-AAABrookwood School80.5%33-2112Pinewood ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
23.51GIAA AAAA-AAAValwood School60.7%21-174Terrell AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
22.83GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy99.2%38-038Heritage (Newnan)GIAA AAAA-AAA
11.31GIAA AAAugusta Prep56.9%26-233Gatewood SchoolGIAA AA
10.61GAPPS AASkipstone Academy76.7%21-1110King's AcademyGAPPS AA
8.93GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian98.3%42-636Piedmont AcademyGIAA AA
8.43GIAA AABriarwood Academy84.2%25-718Southwest Georgia AcademyGIAA AA
5.14GAPPS AACherokee Christian88.4%30-1317Lanier ChristianGAPPS AA