Maxwell Second Round projections

Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)
Caption
Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Nov 19

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
88.24AAAAAWarner Robins53.7%24-231CartersvilleAAAAA
84.47AAAAAAAMilton61.7%28-244MariettaAAAAAAA
81.90AAAAAAABrookwood80.0%28-1711North GwinnettAAAAAAA
80.61AAAAAALee County70.2%24-168CambridgeAAAAAA
78.62AAAAAAANorth Cobb92.4%31-724RoswellAAAAAAA
78.59AAAAAWare County83.3%31-1813CalhounAAAAA
77.38AAAAAAAGrayson66.3%17-107DenmarkAAAAAAA
77.26AAAAAAAWalton72.1%24-159ArcherAAAAAAA
77.17AAAAAAAMill Creek89.6%33-1419McEachernAAAAAAA
72.87AAAAAAACollins Hill99.1%40-040PebblebrookAAAAAAA
72.59AAAAACreekside86.3%26-719St. Pius XAAAAA
70.72AAAAAABrunswick56.3%22-211DaculaAAAAAA
69.65AAAAAWoodward Academy93.2%29-326Blessed TrinityAAAAA
69.50AAAAAAWestlake84.2%28-1414Kennesaw MountainAAAAAA
69.46AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)66.5%24-195Douglas CountyAAAAAA
68.35AAAAPerry72.3%27-189Flowery BranchAAAA
68.09AAAAAAALowndes87.0%28-1315NorcrossAAAAAAA
67.99AAAOconee County82.8%24-816Crisp CountyAAA
67.64AAAThomson58.9%19-145RinggoldAAA
67.04AAAAppling County57.8%21-201Cherokee BluffAAA
66.45AAAACedartown72.9%22-148CairoAAAA
65.89AAAACarver (Columbus)78.8%24-1311Hapeville CharterAAAA
64.99AAAANorth Oconee79.3%26-1412SpaldingAAAA
64.90AAAStephens County60.9%21-174Burke CountyAAA
63.95AAAARiverdale70.4%21-147DoughertyAAAA
63.92AAAAAAHughes92.3%27-027ShilohAAAAAA
62.89AAAAAClarke Central51.9%20-200Starr's MillAAAAA
62.35AARabun County83.9%29-1415Jeff DavisAA
62.30AAAMonroe Area93.4%34-925Peach CountyAAA
61.76AAAAAABuford99.2%40-040LovejoyAAAAAA
61.33AANortheast54.1%19-172Haralson CountyAA
61.11A PublicMetter77.5%31-2011Schley CountyA Public
59.98AAAPierce County83.7%24-717Dawson CountyAAA
59.67AAAAMarist94.1%34-727LaGrangeAAAA
59.17AAAAAVilla Rica51.2%27-261Harris CountyAAAAA
59.04AAAAAJones County82.4%32-2012EastsideAAAAA
57.50A PrivateFellowship Christian54.3%21-210St. Anne-PacelliA Private
56.96AABleckley County82.1%26-1313CallawayAA
56.76AAAAAAJohns Creek91.3%34-1420EvansAAAAAA
56.05AAAAAACarrollton96.2%36-729AlcovyAAAAAA
55.59AAAAAWhitewater84.3%28-1414Lithia SpringsAAAAA
53.32AAFitzgerald89.2%27-621Fannin CountyAA
53.05A PrivateCalvary Day92.8%27-027WesleyanA Private
52.61AAAABenedictine99.4%46-046LuellaAAAA
52.54A PrivateTattnall Square58.5%26-215DarlingtonA Private
51.66AAAABainbridge93.2%35-1421Northwest WhitfieldAAAA
50.19AAACedar Grove93.8%32-626Southeast BullochAAA
49.86A PublicBowdon74.7%27-1611Turner CountyA Public
49.77AAPutnam County79.2%24-1311LovettAA
49.64A PrivatePrince Avenue Christian94.3%34-826BrookstoneA Private
49.55A PublicMacon County89.7%29-1019Emanuel County InstituteA Public
49.37AASouth Atlanta68.0%24-195Westside (Augusta)AA
48.72AASwainsboro88.9%26-620ColumbiaAA
48.22A PublicBrooks County90.7%35-1520Washington-WilkesA Public
47.96A PublicWilcox County50.8%24-240TrionA Public
47.93AAThomasville97.5%34-034Heard CountyAA
47.46A PublicManchester50.1%15-150McIntosh County AcademyA Public
47.38A PrivateFirst Presbyterian82.2%21-714Mount VernonA Private
46.92A PrivateEagle's Landing Christian96.1%35-629Athens AcademyA Private
46.47A PublicIrwin County93.0%32-725Lincoln CountyA Public
45.42A PrivateHoly Innocents89.3%31-1318Savannah Country DayA Private
41.97AAACarver (Atlanta)94.8%34-628Liberty CountyAAA
40.63A PublicPelham50.3%20-200Warren CountyA Public
36.40A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)99.8%49-049Athens ChristianA Private
29.14GISA AAAWestfield School81.5%33-2112Brookwood SchoolGISA AAA
27.21GISA AAAFrederica Academy53.6%21-201Tiftarea AcademyGISA AAA
23.26GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy99.5%40-040Bulloch AcademyGISA AAA
18.84GISA AABriarwood Academy73.7%21-138Edmund Burke AcademyGISA AA
18.05GISA AAAPinewood Christian95.9%38-1226Valwood SchoolGISA AAA
11.89GISA AATerrell Academy95.8%37-1225Augusta PrepGISA AA
9.23GISA AAGatewood School87.3%29-1415Southwest Georgia AcademyGISA AA
8.26GISA AAPiedmont Academy84.2%30-1416Georgia ChristianGISA AA
-6.17GISA AAThomas Jefferson99.5%39-039John Hancock AcademyGISA AA
-6.41GISA AABrentwood School99.8%49-049Robert Toombs AcademyGISA AA