Maxwell Quarterfinal projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Friday

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
91.03AAAAAAACarrollton69.4%28-217WaltonAAAAAAA
86.92AAAAAAThomas County Central71.2%28-217RoswellAAAAAA
85.18AAAAAAHughes86.3%29-1415Woodward AcademyAAAAAA
84.92AAAAAAAMill Creek87.8%35-1916WestlakeAAAAAAA
83.37AAAAAAAMilton68.3%21-147GraysonAAAAAAA
80.17AAAAAAAColquitt County90.1%35-1718North GwinnettAAAAAAA
80.08AAAACedartown77.7%26-1412BainbridgeAAAA
79.30AAAAAAGainesville74.4%28-208Houston CountyAAAAAA
78.69AAAAAARome82.2%30-1614MaristAAAAAA
76.30AAACedar Grove86.1%35-2114Calvary DayAAA
74.57AAAAACartersville73.7%28-208CoffeeAAAAA
74.01AAAAAWare County89.0%28-721CalhounAAAAA
73.80AAAANorth Oconee79.9%21-714Wayne CountyAAAA
73.13A Division ISwainsboro64.7%24-195Rabun CountyA Division I
72.40AAAABenedictine84.4%27-1314StockbridgeAAAA
72.14AAASandy Creek66.2%24-195Savannah ChristianAAA
71.39AAAAACreekside81.5%26-1313Warner RobinsAAAAA
71.02AAFitzgerald65.2%27-216RockmartAA
68.82AAACarver (Atlanta)54.9%20-182ThomasvilleAAA
68.61AAAOconee County54.2%21-201Carver (Columbus)AAA
66.61AAThomson51.6%23-230South AtlantaAA
65.43AAAAADutchtown72.0%27-1710MaysAAAAA
65.29AAAATroup72.8%28-199Holy InnocentsAAAA
64.56AAPierce County72.2%27-198Fellowship ChristianAA
63.14A Division IPrince Avenue Christian89.5%30-1218MetterA Division I
63.14AAAppling County73.2%21-147CallawayAA
62.08A Division IBleckley County62.8%20-146St. FrancisA Division I
56.59A Division IIBowdon61.4%24-213Early CountyA Division II
52.43A Division IIrwin County96.9%37-631Mount Pisgah ChristianA Division I
50.87A Division IIJohnson County63.2%25-214Clinch CountyA Division II
48.21GIAA AAAA-AAAStratford Academy53.9%27-243Tattnall SquareGIAA AAAA-AAA
45.82A Division IISchley County82.3%31-1813Wilcox CountyA Division II
44.68GIAA AAAA-AAASt. Anne-Pacelli80.8%28-1414BrookstoneGIAA AAAA-AAA
42.51A Division IILincoln County61.0%23-203Dooly CountyA Division II
33.80GIAA AAAA-AAABrookwood School67.2%27-207Deerfield-WindsorGIAA AAAA-AAA
25.14GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy99.0%38-038Valwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
21.13GIAA AABrentwood School74.4%22-148Briarwood AcademyGIAA AA
18.53GIAA AThomas Jefferson78.1%31-2110Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA A
13.01GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian97.3%42-1230Gatewood SchoolGIAA AA