Maxwell playoff projections heading into Semifinals

August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION

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August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2021 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Finals Champ Odds
Collins Hill#1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA)12-0109.7787.024.84964,225.26872,291.100.15
Milton#1 (GHSA 5-AAAAAAA)12-192.51100.713.78684,365.5791,660.569.91
Walton#3 (GHSA 3-AAAAAAA)9-387.10102.703.34315,634.4325,479.7438.25
Grayson#2 (GHSA 4-AAAAAAA)10-383.44103.363.0535,774.7410,568.6093.62

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Finals Champ Odds
Buford#1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA)12-1101.6981.774.76926,251.84833,869.890.20
Hughes#1 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA)12-184.8691.293.90783,678.97118,820.737.42
Carrollton#2 (GHSA 5-AAAAAA)12-181.6995.353.1173,748.1634,404.3428.07
Dacula#2 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA)9-475.1994.323.23216,321.0312,905.0476.49

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Finals Champ Odds
Warner Robins#2 (GHSA 1-AAAAA)12-191.3483.444.24723,170.84513,804.100.95
Calhoun#2 (GHSA 7-AAAAA)11-285.5483.054.11791,542.88313,707.382.19
Creekside#2 (GHSA 3-AAAAA)11-283.3787.883.41276,829.16137,010.526.30
Blessed Trinity#3 (GHSA 7-AAAAA)9-475.4787.883.24208,457.1235,478.0127.19

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Benedictine#1 (GHSA 3-AAAA)11-288.3376.174.50846,207.49655,198.690.53
Cedartown#1 (GHSA 7-AAAA)11-179.4381.593.80608,308.67192,278.814.20
Carver (Columbus)#1 (GHSA 2-AAAA)11-175.7783.083.48391,691.3392,824.059.77
North Oconee#1 (GHSA 8-AAAA)10-374.1883.853.21153,792.5159,698.4415.75

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Cedar Grove#1 (GHSA 5-AAA)10-374.4972.583.84534,086.59310,058.432.23
Pierce County#1 (GHSA 1-AAA)11-273.1371.603.94641,960.81295,806.162.38
Appling County#2 (GHSA 1-AAA)12-174.3773.733.73465,913.41268,833.212.72
Carver (Atlanta)#2 (GHSA 5-AAA)9-269.2974.293.48358,039.19125,302.206.98

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Thomasville#1 (GHSA 1-AA)12-177.0264.024.56895,464.54665,972.570.50
Fitzgerald#2 (GHSA 1-AA)11-269.9870.993.85631,178.55220,015.513.55
Swainsboro#1 (GHSA 2-AA)11-264.5172.413.45368,821.4584,107.0410.89
Callaway#2 (GHSA 5-AA)10-260.2073.673.13104,535.4629,904.8832.44

Class A Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Metter#1 (GHSA 3-A Public)13-071.4365.524.13684,893.10442,083.101.26
Irwin County#1 (GHSA 2-A Public)11-267.5862.034.30901,774.76394,098.281.54
Brooks County#2 (GHSA 2-A Public)10-265.9969.583.47315,106.90155,899.155.41
Wilcox County#1 (GHSA 4-A Public)10-349.1868.673.1198,225.247,919.48125.27

Class A Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)#1 (GHSA 4-A Private)12-091.3171.674.75909,723.03835,578.830.20
Fellowship Christian#1 (GHSA 6-A Private)12-171.3282.383.57507,370.5259,907.5915.69
Prince Avenue Christian#1 (GHSA 8-A Private)11-171.0882.453.55492,629.4856,851.3416.59
Eagle's Landing Christian#1 (GHSA 2-A Private)6-672.1383.813.1490,276.9747,662.2419.98