Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2021 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.
Class AAAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins Hill | #1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA) | 12-0 | 109.77 | 87.02 | 4.84 | 964,225.26 | 872,291.10 | 0.15 |
| Milton | #1 (GHSA 5-AAAAAAA) | 12-1 | 92.51 | 100.71 | 3.78 | 684,365.57 | 91,660.56 | 9.91 |
| Walton | #3 (GHSA 3-AAAAAAA) | 9-3 | 87.10 | 102.70 | 3.34 | 315,634.43 | 25,479.74 | 38.25 |
| Grayson | #2 (GHSA 4-AAAAAAA) | 10-3 | 83.44 | 103.36 | 3.05 | 35,774.74 | 10,568.60 | 93.62 |
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | #1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA) | 12-1 | 101.69 | 81.77 | 4.76 | 926,251.84 | 833,869.89 | 0.20 |
| Hughes | #1 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA) | 12-1 | 84.86 | 91.29 | 3.90 | 783,678.97 | 118,820.73 | 7.42 |
| Carrollton | #2 (GHSA 5-AAAAAA) | 12-1 | 81.69 | 95.35 | 3.11 | 73,748.16 | 34,404.34 | 28.07 |
| Dacula | #2 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA) | 9-4 | 75.19 | 94.32 | 3.23 | 216,321.03 | 12,905.04 | 76.49 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warner Robins | #2 (GHSA 1-AAAAA) | 12-1 | 91.34 | 83.44 | 4.24 | 723,170.84 | 513,804.10 | 0.95 |
| Calhoun | #2 (GHSA 7-AAAAA) | 11-2 | 85.54 | 83.05 | 4.11 | 791,542.88 | 313,707.38 | 2.19 |
| Creekside | #2 (GHSA 3-AAAAA) | 11-2 | 83.37 | 87.88 | 3.41 | 276,829.16 | 137,010.52 | 6.30 |
| Blessed Trinity | #3 (GHSA 7-AAAAA) | 9-4 | 75.47 | 87.88 | 3.24 | 208,457.12 | 35,478.01 | 27.19 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | #1 (GHSA 3-AAAA) | 11-2 | 88.33 | 76.17 | 4.50 | 846,207.49 | 655,198.69 | 0.53 | |
| Cedartown | #1 (GHSA 7-AAAA) | 11-1 | 79.43 | 81.59 | 3.80 | 608,308.67 | 192,278.81 | 4.20 | |
| Carver (Columbus) | #1 (GHSA 2-AAAA) | 11-1 | 75.77 | 83.08 | 3.48 | 391,691.33 | 92,824.05 | 9.77 | |
| North Oconee | #1 (GHSA 8-AAAA) | 10-3 | 74.18 | 83.85 | 3.21 | 153,792.51 | 59,698.44 | 15.75 |
Class AAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Grove | #1 (GHSA 5-AAA) | 10-3 | 74.49 | 72.58 | 3.84 | 534,086.59 | 310,058.43 | 2.23 | |
| Pierce County | #1 (GHSA 1-AAA) | 11-2 | 73.13 | 71.60 | 3.94 | 641,960.81 | 295,806.16 | 2.38 | |
| Appling County | #2 (GHSA 1-AAA) | 12-1 | 74.37 | 73.73 | 3.73 | 465,913.41 | 268,833.21 | 2.72 | |
| Carver (Atlanta) | #2 (GHSA 5-AAA) | 9-2 | 69.29 | 74.29 | 3.48 | 358,039.19 | 125,302.20 | 6.98 |
Class AA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomasville | #1 (GHSA 1-AA) | 12-1 | 77.02 | 64.02 | 4.56 | 895,464.54 | 665,972.57 | 0.50 | |
| Fitzgerald | #2 (GHSA 1-AA) | 11-2 | 69.98 | 70.99 | 3.85 | 631,178.55 | 220,015.51 | 3.55 | |
| Swainsboro | #1 (GHSA 2-AA) | 11-2 | 64.51 | 72.41 | 3.45 | 368,821.45 | 84,107.04 | 10.89 | |
| Callaway | #2 (GHSA 5-AA) | 10-2 | 60.20 | 73.67 | 3.13 | 104,535.46 | 29,904.88 | 32.44 |
Class A Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metter | #1 (GHSA 3-A Public) | 13-0 | 71.43 | 65.52 | 4.13 | 684,893.10 | 442,083.10 | 1.26 | |
| Irwin County | #1 (GHSA 2-A Public) | 11-2 | 67.58 | 62.03 | 4.30 | 901,774.76 | 394,098.28 | 1.54 | |
| Brooks County | #2 (GHSA 2-A Public) | 10-2 | 65.99 | 69.58 | 3.47 | 315,106.90 | 155,899.15 | 5.41 | |
| Wilcox County | #1 (GHSA 4-A Public) | 10-3 | 49.18 | 68.67 | 3.11 | 98,225.24 | 7,919.48 | 125.27 |
Class A Private
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | #1 (GHSA 4-A Private) | 12-0 | 91.31 | 71.67 | 4.75 | 909,723.03 | 835,578.83 | 0.20 | |
| Fellowship Christian | #1 (GHSA 6-A Private) | 12-1 | 71.32 | 82.38 | 3.57 | 507,370.52 | 59,907.59 | 15.69 | |
| Prince Avenue Christian | #1 (GHSA 8-A Private) | 11-1 | 71.08 | 82.45 | 3.55 | 492,629.48 | 56,851.34 | 16.59 | |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | #1 (GHSA 2-A Private) | 6-6 | 72.13 | 83.81 | 3.14 | 90,276.97 | 47,662.24 | 19.98 |
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