Maxwell playoff projections heading into Second Round

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2022 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Colquitt County#1 (1-AAAAAAA)11-098.0485.753.74982,868.83898,381.69501,668.75356,483.461.81
Buford#1 (8-AAAAAAA)11-098.8390.643.08864,865.02613,525.16345,768.96251,901.622.97
Mill Creek#2 (8-AAAAAAA)10-194.8890.472.51554,060.25465,965.99339,668.63146,186.645.84
North Cobb#1 (5-AAAAAAA)9-291.1189.892.13445,939.75357,460.34245,370.5180,622.5011.40
Carrollton#1 (2-AAAAAAA)11-092.3391.452.45905,046.22338,958.75131,519.6774,318.7912.46
Milton#1 (6-AAAAAAA)8-387.3586.972.88872,758.00658,411.43279,004.1067,303.9413.86
Westlake#2 (2-AAAAAAA)8-382.5290.311.88676,028.02137,391.0655,937.348,641.34114.72
Grayson#1 (4-AAAAAAA)9-279.1788.911.85598,995.86198,603.1346,004.715,083.62195.71
Walton#2 (5-AAAAAAA)9-285.1396.131.19135,134.9840,674.868,015.882,971.21335.56
Lambert#2 (6-AAAAAAA)10-181.5693.281.73641,784.2773,500.1810,222.092,911.73342.44
Camden County#2 (1-AAAAAAA)8-377.7390.491.52401,004.14103,164.4318,016.061,716.00581.75
Parkview#4 (4-AAAAAAA)8-378.2791.691.38323,971.9839,182.6111,511.411,159.66861.32
North Gwinnett#1 (7-AAAAAAA)9-274.7092.191.39358,215.7325,577.672,173.54341.622,926.23
Norcross#2 (7-AAAAAAA)8-373.0790.701.17127,242.0039,821.014,487.23259.763,848.76
Marietta#2 (3-AAAAAAA)5-675.2795.741.1094,953.786,841.24566.8994.0010,637.54
Harrison#3 (3-AAAAAAA)4-765.8593.881.0217,131.172,540.4764.224.11243,136.94

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Hughes#1 (5-AAAAAA)11-095.9280.704.02986,028.76860,211.88710,398.90464,449.821.15
Thomas County Central#1 (1-AAAAAA)11-093.9982.373.68989,029.65734,114.03624,543.47335,325.371.98
Rome#1 (6-AAAAAA)10-185.2584.522.83879,975.81686,330.34191,439.8471,562.9612.97
Roswell#1 (7-AAAAAA)10-185.9186.162.42920,446.29262,204.58180,580.1359,461.9815.82
Gainesville#1 (8-AAAAAA)11-080.6385.422.34774,476.73448,454.5298,392.3121,571.5545.36
Houston County#4 (1-AAAAAA)9-281.1486.272.48907,190.46463,993.8789,388.3620,433.2647.94
Lee County#3 (1-AAAAAA)8-383.3588.631.94742,964.13120,498.7056,823.6118,621.4452.70
Northside (Warner Robins)#2 (1-AAAAAA)7-478.3087.641.95691,783.98216,881.0330,017.726,623.89149.97
South Paulding#2 (5-AAAAAA)8-372.1887.831.31225,523.2779,650.086,302.00638.831,564.36
Woodward Academy#1 (3-AAAAAA)10-172.4688.311.28257,035.8717,677.314,688.22608.601,642.11
Marist#1 (4-AAAAAA)9-269.5487.071.37308,216.0256,110.523,830.69372.292,685.05
Alpharetta#2 (7-AAAAAA)8-370.4088.511.16120,024.1940,678.112,664.16282.373,540.51
Allatoona#2 (6-AAAAAA)6-567.2290.021.0879,553.713,178.83594.7036.3527,505.75
North Forsyth#2 (8-AAAAAA)8-361.9989.361.0213,971.241,612.11136.865.96167,881.65
North Atlanta#3 (4-AAAAAA)8-359.9887.671.1092,809.547,901.53161.774.50222,254.78
St. Pius X#2 (4-AAAAAA)6-557.9989.881.0110,970.35502.5637.260.831,206,061.77

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Ware County#1 (1-AAAAA)10-088.9066.714.47993,962.37915,590.01845,427.05717,328.710.39
Creekside#1 (5-AAAAA)9-276.0772.923.08886,642.92671,794.96414,939.87107,485.108.30
Cartersville#2 (7-AAAAA)10-175.6277.312.12563,914.41334,817.21173,193.9743,422.5022.03
Coffee#2 (1-AAAAA)9-272.9775.292.62959,193.43431,649.32192,139.4739,582.9724.26
Dutchtown#1 (2-AAAAA)10-169.7472.682.83948,060.73748,014.3497,820.9436,594.7626.33
Cambridge#1 (6-AAAAA)9-271.5176.541.79436,085.59232,151.67106,091.1719,507.7550.26
Warner Robins#2 (2-AAAAA)7-470.0075.882.22818,123.83275,534.77106,234.4617,318.5556.74
Calhoun#1 (7-AAAAA)8-369.7876.251.78665,882.8965,796.0137,757.4514,160.8669.62
Kell#2 (6-AAAAA)10-165.9178.571.36334,117.1118,179.307,609.012,106.97473.62
Mays#2 (5-AAAAA)7-461.8376.041.87679,403.23182,672.659,355.721,801.09554.22
Dalton#3 (7-AAAAA)6-560.6878.111.15113,357.0831,636.774,747.12338.952,949.25
Cass#4 (7-AAAAA)5-657.4576.711.38320,596.7759,493.121,886.00235.954,237.24
Northside (Columbus)#1 (3-AAAAA)10-155.3876.051.21181,876.1721,033.492,597.99109.089,166.99
Northgate#2 (3-AAAAA)5-647.2176.491.0651,939.279,819.89103.404.27234,157.76
Chamblee#2 (4-AAAAA)8-247.8378.401.016,037.63434.6740.431.79558,081.84
Decatur#1 (4-AAAAA)7-444.4276.421.0440,806.571,381.8055.960.711,409,067.52

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Cedartown#1 (7-AAAA)11-088.5575.013.87977,112.16861,314.17613,737.60419,092.311.39
Benedictine#1 (3-AAAA)9-284.5271.054.02982,619.50883,035.82781,979.29370,685.841.70
North Oconee#1 (8-AAAA)11-081.5478.712.85972,964.11563,666.14206,573.09104,010.588.61
Perry#1 (2-AAAA)10-180.6080.212.46844,966.74410,198.89140,974.6967,520.3613.81
Troup#1 (4-AAAA)10-169.7875.532.68865,683.97663,355.52133,088.6719,672.3449.83
Bainbridge#1 (1-AAAA)7-473.2381.001.80658,441.98103,042.0030,134.189,158.96108.18
Stockbridge#1 (5-AAAA)9-266.9476.962.08906,565.06112,215.6657,996.996,477.20153.39
Burke County#3 (3-AAAA)9-269.6483.181.38341,558.0231,715.985,630.981,319.27756.99
Holy Innocents#1 (6-AAAA)8-360.9176.821.79585,378.03185,593.6216,921.201,002.06996.94
Wayne County#2 (3-AAAA)9-268.2584.041.18155,033.2624,839.072,686.77565.111,768.58
Central (Carrollton)#2 (7-AAAA)8-359.9578.181.53414,621.97105,394.687,246.72386.352,587.30
Cairo#2 (1-AAAA)8-356.0278.331.18134,316.0345,656.172,110.7672.7113,752.56
Stephenson#2 (6-AAAA)7-358.8683.101.0322,887.843,927.85232.0821.5246,461.55
Spalding#2 (2-AAAA)7-452.4679.381.0217,380.502,906.17441.4310.1598,517.91
Walnut Grove#2 (8-AAAA)9-249.7379.311.1093,434.941,842.34214.933.61276,816.90
Lovett#2 (5-AAAA)7-453.2983.751.0327,035.891,295.9030.611.63614,008.11

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Cedar Grove#1 (5-AAA)8-287.9165.194.42966,204.40877,906.73831,522.36747,880.520.34
Sandy Creek#2 (5-AAA)9-273.7073.182.34578,349.79406,029.09284,515.0969,222.4213.45
Calvary Day#1 (3-AAA)10-070.0472.642.01795,641.79103,213.9271,351.2937,997.9025.32
Stephens County#1 (8-AAA)9-269.1072.871.88421,650.21267,036.58160,677.1627,772.7735.01
Oconee County#3 (8-AAA)7-468.3772.742.24706,515.03457,860.0653,635.1626,010.3837.45
Thomasville#1 (1-AAA)8-365.7770.482.54890,206.01445,193.60184,096.0624,392.1240.00
Carver (Atlanta)#3 (5-AAA)7-367.6673.261.99554,164.83300,013.30116,262.9517,957.6054.69
Peach County#1 (2-AAA)8-366.1972.042.03646,943.32240,534.42124,481.0417,069.9557.58
Monroe Area#4 (8-AAA)6-567.7774.031.80445,835.17241,533.2394,322.6814,697.7967.04
Carver (Columbus)#2 (1-AAA)8-263.6272.622.01670,738.11311,649.9023,885.198,440.77117.47
Savannah Christian#2 (3-AAA)10-163.0373.911.48353,056.6886,399.9134,623.873,635.68274.05
Adairsville#1 (6-AAA)10-159.0272.311.44293,484.97140,832.258,304.822,022.01493.56
Hebron Christian#2 (8-AAA)9-261.5976.181.0533,795.6010,129.954,359.271,316.69758.48
Dougherty#3 (1-AAA)9-260.5376.171.22204,358.218,749.403,159.58874.771,142.16
Harlem#1 (4-AAA)10-155.6872.161.42329,261.8989,657.793,782.33678.161,473.59
Liberty County#3 (3-AAA)7-450.0873.671.12109,793.9913,259.871,021.1530.4732,813.89

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Fitzgerald#1 (1-AA)11-074.8162.813.49929,229.86664,300.39506,780.07391,677.831.55
Appling County#1 (3-AA)9-167.2861.843.13861,223.76669,123.06428,107.99167,067.724.99
Pierce County#2 (3-AA)10-168.9863.833.02933,110.13689,942.18244,304.57154,935.295.45
Rockmart#1 (7-AA)9-268.0864.812.53905,209.51315,752.86189,049.58115,299.747.67
South Atlanta#1 (6-AA)10-062.9762.702.70910,523.48490,916.97232,633.9065,932.5314.17
Thomson#1 (4-AA)10-163.5064.282.26661,225.51364,817.35178,191.7852,708.8317.97
Fellowship Christian#1 (8-AA)8-359.7764.622.19834,651.56277,252.7854,224.6020,410.3947.99
Callaway#1 (5-AA)8-358.4363.572.16793,435.05252,647.6797,941.6418,829.8952.11
Cook#2 (1-AA)8-359.8166.741.53338,774.49135,482.7546,487.7110,108.7497.92
Northeast#2 (2-AA)8-353.8466.441.21138,776.2454,478.4912,471.081,547.05645.39
Putnam County#2 (4-AA)9-255.0569.761.0970,770.1413,421.092,963.80771.341,295.44
Fannin County#3 (7-AA)7-449.0466.311.23206,564.9523,750.783,329.73252.093,965.78
North Cobb Christian#2 (6-AA)10-151.0069.561.1094,790.496,525.661,002.78181.395,512.06
Eagle's Landing Christian#2 (5-AA)7-448.0767.601.18165,348.4417,868.68891.34121.148,253.61
Berrien#4 (1-AA)7-448.7168.251.0866,889.8714,936.35783.26113.478,811.88
Union County#3 (8-AA)8-345.3666.751.1089,476.528,782.94836.1742.5623,496.16

Class A Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Prince Avenue Christian#1 (5-A Division I)10-075.5061.604.071,000,000.00887,769.84780,217.83399,207.971.50
Irwin County#1 (1-A Division I)9-177.5866.773.62991,066.64802,819.37505,312.63319,475.352.13
Swainsboro#1 (2-A Division I)10-074.2569.233.02990,947.94599,563.41277,153.07151,176.005.61
Rabun County#1 (8-A Division I)11-071.4170.702.57942,597.54397,439.76153,193.2872,072.0612.88
Darlington#1 (7-A Division I)11-067.9672.091.66680,842.45169,299.2159,963.0222,984.3842.51
Bleckley County#3 (2-A Division I)9-263.4568.692.22667,163.48442,683.5791,489.9118,980.0751.69
Metter#1 (3-A Division I)8-359.2568.691.71592,902.1675,272.7739,565.045,483.36181.37
St. Francis#1 (6-A Division I)8-357.3267.492.09721,313.85313,917.7345,572.525,189.01191.71
Dublin#2 (2-A Division I)7-358.0370.201.46407,097.8436,957.3916,979.252,079.11479.98
Lamar County#1 (4-A Division I)10-155.6568.311.53332,836.52171,229.8021,334.932,040.33489.12
Elbert County#4 (8-A Division I)10-161.5074.820.51215,610.3224,279.294,120.601,004.70994.33
Trion#2 (7-A Division I)9-251.2569.221.36278,686.1572,168.894,840.52287.753,474.28
Social Circle#2 (5-A Division I)8-349.7774.991.0657,402.462,798.77125.9110.9691,217.75
Mount Pisgah Christian#2 (6-A Division I)8-347.8674.191.11103,547.233,008.28119.918.62115,950.25
Heard County#2 (4-A Division I)6-539.8474.121.018,933.36593.859.500.293,432,741.42
Screven County#2 (3-A Division I)9-136.6274.851.019,052.06198.062.080.0422,490,528.76

Class A Division II

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Bowdon#1 (7-A Division II)10-159.0847.043.58916,615.20737,609.49536,569.01392,208.081.55
Charlton County#1 (2-A Division II)8-253.3947.333.09884,708.94720,192.53306,924.76179,280.844.58
Schley County#1 (6-A Division II)9-252.3146.533.19890,506.45710,551.52419,456.61173,868.504.75
Johnson County#1 (5-A Division II)11-051.5648.612.70807,281.74501,443.55284,045.83112,085.887.92
Clinch County#2 (2-A Division II)9-250.0551.611.97546,877.38258,055.89122,904.4743,724.3721.87
Early County#1 (1-A Division II)8-348.9250.602.08737,839.45203,082.9995,057.9143,411.1322.04
McIntosh County Academy#1 (3-A Division II)10-146.5250.701.75453,122.62190,640.4582,291.7622,455.8143.53
Wilcox County#1 (4-A Division II)8-342.5149.081.98697,637.12202,662.1064,397.7812,530.8378.80
Lincoln County#1 (8-A Division II)8-242.0949.352.16874,878.69227,855.2841,712.4111,592.0785.27
Telfair County#2 (4-A Division II)9-242.1553.601.31262,160.5534,901.359,142.442,552.51390.77
Christian Heritage#3 (7-A Division II)5-641.4352.701.26192,718.2649,860.1213,218.312,335.40427.19
Manchester#2 (6-A Division II)7-340.8253.811.1183,384.8024,406.175,762.901,439.63693.62
Lanier County#3 (2-A Division II)6-537.4051.421.36302,362.8849,450.548,061.33972.451,027.33
Dooly County#3 (4-A Division II)6-538.1652.531.16115,291.0644,127.884,553.25897.491,113.22
Washington-Wilkes#3 (8-A Division II)8-336.5951.631.15109,493.5537,335.845,623.92626.161,596.03
Wilkinson County#2 (5-A Division II)7-427.6452.091.13125,121.317,824.31277.3318.8553,063.14