Maxwell playoff projections heading into Quarterfinals

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2022 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Mill Creek#2 (8-AAAAAAA)11-197.5488.113.931,000,000.00850,313.55672,863.31411,166.791.43
Colquitt County#1 (1-AAAAAAA)12-094.9488.883.681,000,000.00877,721.82517,972.81279,538.892.58
Carrollton#1 (2-AAAAAAA)12-093.8591.333.231,000,000.00693,596.98357,793.28182,823.254.47
Milton#1 (6-AAAAAAA)9-385.8390.402.871,000,000.00630,651.39189,081.3854,538.6017.34
Walton#2 (5-AAAAAAA)10-288.9294.902.451,000,000.00306,403.02102,716.2339,596.9224.25
Grayson#1 (4-AAAAAAA)10-281.3291.372.461,000,000.00369,348.6177,237.6015,010.7665.62
Westlake#2 (2-AAAAAAA)9-382.8993.132.221,000,000.00149,686.4560,817.7113,630.6572.36
North Gwinnett#1 (7-AAAAAAA)10-278.3293.452.151,000,000.00122,278.1821,517.683,694.15269.70

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Hughes#1 (5-AAAAAA)12-096.6485.083.981,000,000.00833,442.62655,680.46492,774.391.03
Thomas County Central#1 (1-AAAAAA)12-090.3886.973.351,000,000.00661,779.43480,610.26206,459.723.84
Rome#1 (6-AAAAAA)11-187.3287.333.151,000,000.00785,127.02244,445.70124,893.507.01
Gainesville#1 (8-AAAAAA)12-084.0286.913.101,000,000.00743,774.23278,108.9976,831.2712.02
Roswell#1 (7-AAAAAA)11-184.7288.982.591,000,000.00338,220.57196,755.4657,334.6716.44
Woodward Academy#1 (3-AAAAAA)11-183.0590.442.271,000,000.00166,557.3873,810.9728,916.8033.58
Houston County#4 (1-AAAAAA)10-277.0089.952.311,000,000.00256,225.7744,525.296,746.84147.22
Marist#1 (4-AAAAAA)10-276.3989.872.251,000,000.00214,872.9826,062.876,042.81164.49

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Ware County#1 (1-AAAAA)11-087.7373.044.251,000,000.00864,960.56792,524.83595,184.930.68
Creekside#1 (5-AAAAA)10-279.6476.463.521,000,000.00815,411.71514,498.80193,746.424.16
Cartersville#2 (7-AAAAA)11-179.0079.203.151,000,000.00689,149.31335,090.88121,234.627.25
Calhoun#1 (7-AAAAA)9-372.0779.832.251,000,000.00135,039.4486,361.5728,545.9534.03
Dutchtown#1 (2-AAAAA)11-169.2177.772.851,000,000.00720,410.27102,914.3327,014.4936.02
Coffee#2 (1-AAAAA)10-272.2881.062.431,000,000.00310,850.6997,124.0222,090.1544.27
Warner Robins#2 (2-AAAAA)8-469.0881.192.251,000,000.00184,588.2953,286.309,432.74105.01
Mays#2 (5-AAAAA)8-463.2080.172.301,000,000.00279,589.7318,199.272,750.70362.54

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Cedartown#1 (7-AAAA)12-088.2478.623.831,000,000.00814,442.08602,112.21410,481.271.44
Benedictine#1 (3-AAAA)10-284.4375.084.011,000,000.00872,423.33766,686.05374,411.651.67
North Oconee#1 (8-AAAA)12-081.1580.053.241,000,000.00799,281.14293,426.52147,190.715.79
Bainbridge#1 (1-AAAA)8-475.7683.382.291,000,000.00185,557.9276,455.8928,111.9634.57
Troup#1 (4-AAAA)11-169.3779.282.831,000,000.00679,584.46131,571.1120,133.7048.67
Stockbridge#1 (5-AAAA)10-268.2180.702.201,000,000.00127,576.6766,881.159,149.76108.29
Wayne County#2 (3-AAAA)10-271.4684.352.241,000,000.00200,718.8628,005.397,699.98128.87
Holy Innocents#1 (6-AAAA)9-363.0380.112.361,000,000.00320,415.5434,861.692,820.97353.49

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Cedar Grove#1 (5-AAA)9-287.5571.084.261,000,000.00830,353.65770,467.15656,624.630.52
Sandy Creek#2 (5-AAA)10-275.9074.473.381,000,000.00712,084.01513,127.57153,163.475.53
Calvary Day#1 (3-AAA)11-074.1677.762.361,000,000.00169,646.35123,159.0168,538.7513.59
Carver (Atlanta)#3 (5-AAA)8-369.7376.832.771,000,000.00548,597.48184,423.9234,493.4127.99
Oconee County#3 (8-AAA)8-469.3877.582.641,000,000.00542,381.7566,450.6528,145.0134.53
Savannah Christian#2 (3-AAA)11-168.2676.852.461,000,000.00287,915.99146,979.7724,331.1540.10
Thomasville#1 (1-AAA)9-366.1175.482.631,000,000.00451,402.52155,468.7321,371.7645.79
Carver (Columbus)#2 (1-AAA)9-265.9877.482.511,000,000.00457,618.2539,923.1913,331.8274.01

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Fitzgerald#1 (1-AA)12-072.5167.563.261,000,000.00597,653.88401,476.72261,884.672.82
Appling County#1 (3-AA)10-169.3465.643.461,000,000.00775,164.98466,999.89219,271.213.56
Pierce County#2 (3-AA)11-170.3868.083.211,000,000.00722,188.42303,149.92180,210.104.55
Rockmart#1 (7-AA)10-269.1768.882.771,000,000.00402,346.12234,523.79131,424.536.61
Thomson#1 (4-AA)11-166.8967.452.971,000,000.00574,127.78283,399.02113,390.647.82
South Atlanta#1 (6-AA)11-064.3768.212.671,000,000.00425,872.22180,641.2660,129.5615.63
Fellowship Christian#1 (8-AA)9-360.3568.982.361,000,000.00277,811.5860,849.5719,207.2751.06
Callaway#1 (5-AA)9-358.9068.622.311,000,000.00224,835.0268,959.8414,482.0268.05

Class A Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Irwin County#1 (1-A Division I)10-178.6168.844.001,000,000.00969,053.04633,981.58392,129.841.55
Prince Avenue Christian#1 (5-A Division I)11-077.3267.884.021,000,000.00870,544.20755,486.71391,476.621.55
Swainsboro#1 (2-A Division I)11-074.4774.712.951,000,000.00592,237.44235,332.55120,056.387.33
Rabun County#1 (8-A Division I)12-071.3275.682.591,000,000.00407,762.56128,888.2555,224.0117.11
Bleckley County#3 (2-A Division I)10-264.8673.152.781,000,000.00628,063.57128,353.4826,089.9637.33
Metter#1 (3-A Division I)9-361.2473.342.201,000,000.00129,455.8064,679.389,288.35106.66
St. Francis#1 (6-A Division I)9-358.4772.732.431,000,000.00371,936.4351,480.435,578.30178.27
Mount Pisgah Christian#2 (6-A Division I)9-351.5376.942.031,000,000.0030,946.961,797.62156.546,387.31

Class A Division II

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Qtr Semi Finals Champ Odds
Bowdon#1 (7-A Division II)11-159.0049.743.671,000,000.00667,729.70592,958.42406,453.411.46
Schley County#1 (6-A Division II)10-254.5050.123.511,000,000.00786,016.96491,543.86234,732.073.26
Early County#1 (1-A Division II)9-353.1152.442.741,000,000.00332,270.30265,305.06139,158.036.19
Johnson County#1 (5-A Division II)12-051.7851.803.061,000,000.00632,046.38306,990.21124,644.117.02
Clinch County#2 (2-A Division II)10-249.1954.442.551,000,000.00367,953.62133,630.5245,668.3620.90
Lincoln County#1 (8-A Division II)9-242.8551.062.731,000,000.00610,304.9798,736.8824,998.7739.00
Wilcox County#1 (4-A Division II)9-343.5353.422.301,000,000.00213,983.0467,835.4215,070.9265.35
Dooly County#3 (4-A Division II)7-541.0452.962.441,000,000.00389,695.0342,999.649,274.33106.82