Maxwell First Round projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Saturday

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
81.62AAAAAAAWestlake52.5%18-162ValdostaAAAAAAA
74.89AAAAAAAWalton82.3%28-1414South ForsythAAAAAAA
74.88AAAAAAAParkview60.0%24-213North PauldingAAAAAAA
74.82AAAAAAACarrollton90.3%33-1320LowndesAAAAAAA
74.38AAAAAAACamden County69.9%25-178East CowetaAAAAAAA
73.72AAAAAAANorth Cobb90.8%28-622DenmarkAAAAAAA
69.53AAAAAAAMarietta69.4%21-147NewtonAAAAAAA
68.78AAAAAAANorcross67.0%24-186Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
66.52AAAAAWare County95.5%32-032Jones CountyAAAAA
66.21AAAAAAAColquitt County98.5%41-041PebblebrookAAAAAAA
64.13AAAAAAABrookwood84.8%29-1415HarrisonAAAAAAA
62.44AAAAACartersville80.5%30-1812Clarke CentralAAAAA
61.87AAAAACalhoun76.5%28-1711EastsideAAAAA
60.86AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett86.6%29-1415DaculaAAAAAAA
60.38AAAMonroe Area75.1%26-1412Dawson CountyAAA
59.40AAAAAAAMill Creek98.8%46-838MeadowcreekAAAAAAA
59.07AAAAAKell73.2%28-199Lithia SpringsAAAAA
57.94AAAAAAAGrayson94.7%31-031HillgroveAAAAAAA
57.00AAAAALoganville82.4%28-1414DaltonAAAAA
55.86AAADougherty62.8%24-204Mary PersonsAAA
53.95AAAPeach County87.8%28-1216Crisp CountyAAA
53.89AAAAACoffee93.4%35-1223OlaAAAAA
53.56AAAAAAALambert97.4%36-036WheelerAAAAAAA
52.84AAAAACambridge93.1%34-826Maynard JacksonAAAAA
52.35AAAAAMays79.3%31-2011CentennialAAAAA
52.18AAAAADutchtown91.6%29-722StatesboroAAAAA
51.69AAAAAAABuford99.7%42-042Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
50.80AAACarver (Atlanta)91.1%28-325RinggoldAAA
50.73AAAAAJefferson95.4%30-030CassAAAAA
50.58AAAAAAAMilton99.1%41-041CherokeeAAAAAAA
49.23AAAOconee County92.3%33-825Lumpkin CountyAAA
48.95AAAThomasville92.1%31-724JacksonAAA
48.75AAAMorgan County58.6%28-244Liberty CountyAAA
48.27AAAAACreekside96.8%33-033Greater Atlanta ChristianAAAAA
48.18AAAHarlem77.0%22-1210Long CountyAAA
47.71AAAAAWarner Robins95.6%34-034JenkinsAAAAA
44.89AAACarver (Columbus)92.1%31-724Upson-LeeAAA
43.65AAAAANorthside (Columbus)87.4%30-1416TuckerAAAAA
41.79AAAHebron Christian93.8%35-1124PickensAAA
41.19AAASandy Creek98.5%41-041Coahulla CreekAAA
40.53AAAStephens County97.6%34-034WesleyanAAA
39.96AAASavannah Christian95.0%35-728HephzibahAAA
39.61AAAAAChamblee76.6%29-209McIntoshAAAAA
39.02AAAAANorthgate79.0%21-714Arabia MountainAAAAA
37.20AAACedar Grove99.8%42-042BremenAAA
36.56AAAAdairsville93.9%33-726DouglassAAA
32.11AAAAADecatur86.5%28-1315Harris CountyAAAAA
12.14AAACalvary Day99.9%48-048SalemAAA

Friday

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
77.10AAAAAAHouston County66.1%28-217BrunswickAAAAAA
68.52AAAALaGrange51.7%22-211Burke CountyAAAA
67.46AAAABenedictine91.6%31-724WhitewaterAAAA
66.56AAAAAALee County89.3%30-1218Effingham CountyAAAAAA
65.40AAAAAADouglas County54.5%21-201AllatoonaAAAAAA
64.08AAAAAASouth Paulding77.1%27-1413SequoyahAAAAAA
62.79AAAAWayne County73.8%21-138Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)AAAA
62.51AAAAAABlessed Trinity69.8%22-148North ForsythAAAAAA
60.60AAAAAARome94.9%34-628Paulding CountyAAAAAA
60.32AAAAAAAlpharetta86.7%34-1816ShilohAAAAAA
59.60A Division IBrooks County88.8%31-1318Bleckley CountyA Division I
58.13AAAAStephenson54.3%23-212Pace AcademyAAAA
57.80AAAAAAHughes99.0%42-042River RidgeAAAAAA
57.22AAAANorth Oconee95.4%31-031SonoravilleAAAA
56.54AAAATroup90.6%38-2018New HampsteadAAAA
56.49AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)95.5%32-032Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
56.05AAAAAAGainesville96.5%35-629SprayberryAAAAAA
55.89AAAAAANorth Atlanta55.1%23-212LovejoyAAAAAA
54.14AAAAWestminster (Atlanta)51.0%15-141LovettAAAA
53.78AAAAAASt. Pius X72.4%20-1010Mundy's MillAAAAAA
52.22AAWorth County55.4%23-212NortheastAA
51.31AAAAStockbridge90.8%28-721Hapeville CharterAAAA
50.97AAAAHoly Innocents80.6%28-1414HamptonAAAA
49.24A Division ISocial Circle58.4%21-183Whitefield AcademyA Division I
49.02AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)79.5%29-1811Walnut GroveAAAA
48.93AAPierce County93.7%31-328LaneyAA
48.78AAPutnam County72.1%24-1410Toombs CountyAA
48.41A Division ITrion51.1%22-211CommerceA Division I
47.97AANorth Cobb Christian58.4%17-143ColumbiaAA
47.74AAAABainbridge97.0%35-035BaldwinAAAA
47.43AAAAAARoswell99.2%40-040LanierAAAAAA
47.14AAAACairo81.9%30-1713Westside (Macon)AAAA
46.20AAAAAAThomas County Central99.7%46-046EvansAAAAAA
46.12AAThomson91.2%28-721Tattnall CountyAA
45.70AAAthens Academy84.2%29-1415Fannin CountyAA
44.90AAFellowship Christian90.0%35-1619North MurrayAA
44.24AAAACentral (Carrollton)89.7%34-1420Madison CountyAAAA
43.42AAModel65.1%21-147Union CountyAA
41.06A Division IITelfair County53.4%28-271Emanuel County InstituteA Division II
39.90A Division IElbert County94.8%35-728PepperellA Division I
39.52AABerrien81.0%27-1413SpencerAA
39.33AAAASpalding87.9%28-1018WestoverAAAA
39.14A Division IIBowdon93.0%36-1422AquinasA Division II
38.89AAAACedartown99.7%42-042Cedar ShoalsAAAA
38.66A Division IDublin92.3%28-622PelhamA Division I
37.74A Division IPrince Avenue Christian99.2%44-044Mount VernonA Division I
37.40A Division IIJenkins County68.0%21-147Dooly CountyA Division II
35.42A Division IHeard County70.8%24-168Bryan CountyA Division I
35.40AAAAAAMarist98.7%42-042MorrowAAAAAA
35.30A Division IRabun County98.9%40-040Dade CountyA Division I
35.22AAAppling County98.3%39-039Washington CountyAA
34.99A Division IIChristian Heritage63.9%24-204Greene CountyA Division II
34.56AARockmart98.0%39-039East JacksonAA
34.13A Division IIMount Zion (Carroll)60.6%21-174Washington-WilkesA Division II
33.38GIAA AAAA-AAABrookstone80.8%31-1912First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
33.25A Division IIClinch County91.9%28-028Mitchell CountyA Division II
32.68A Division IMount Pisgah Christian89.9%31-1219Jasper CountyA Division I
32.61A Division IIrwin County99.7%42-042Jefferson CountyA Division I
32.32A Division IMetter97.0%35-035TempleA Division I
31.02AAAAAAWoodward Academy99.6%42-042RiverwoodAAAAAA
30.91A Division IDarlington98.8%42-636Athens ChristianA Division I
30.45GIAA AAAA-AAATattnall Square90.8%35-1718Westfield SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
30.40AACook98.3%42-636ACE CharterAA
30.36AASouth Atlanta98.6%36-036Landmark ChristianAA
29.75A Division IIEarly County94.0%35-827Turner CountyA Division II
29.71AAEagle's Landing Christian93.8%36-1422Mount Paran ChristianAA
28.66A Division IILanier County78.6%21-714Miller CountyA Division II
27.67A Division ISt. Francis97.7%35-035Oglethorpe CountyA Division I
27.64A Division IIJohnson County96.8%34-034Chattahoochee CountyA Division II
27.19A Division IIMacon County58.7%21-174Wilkinson CountyA Division II
26.62GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor71.6%27-189Frederica AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
25.39AAAAPerry99.9%45-045ShawAAAA
24.76A Division IIMcIntosh County Academy95.4%31-031Wheeler CountyA Division II
24.71A Division ISwainsboro99.7%42-042Bacon CountyA Division I
23.60AACallaway99.0%35-035WashingtonAA
22.57A Division IIWilcox County93.3%34-727Montgomery CountyA Division II
22.50GIAA AAAA-AAAValwood School61.2%21-165Terrell AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
22.45A Division IICharlton County98.1%40-040Seminole CountyA Division II
20.57GIAA AAAA-AAABethlehem Christian Academy61.0%20-155Mount de SalesGIAA AAAA-AAA
17.40AAFitzgerald99.9%47-047Central (Macon)AA
16.54A Division ILamar County99.2%42-042ClaxtonA Division I
16.20A Division IIManchester96.1%33-033Hancock CentralA Division II
15.29A Division IISchley County98.9%36-036Georgia Military PrepA Division II
13.89GIAA AAAA-AAAGeorge Walton Academy80.7%28-1513Strong Rock ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
12.57A Division IScreven County96.9%38-632Crawford CountyA Division I
12.17GIAA AAAA-AAAHeritage (Newnan)80.1%28-1612Lakeview AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
11.93GIAA AAAA-AAAPinewood Christian86.5%33-1617Southland AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
10.21GIAA AAAugusta Prep54.7%25-232Gatewood SchoolGIAA AA
6.91GIAA AABriarwood Academy84.5%24-717Southwest Georgia AcademyGIAA AA
0.56GIAA AAPiedmont Academy76.2%33-2112Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA AA
-2.60GAPPS AAKing's Academy80.1%29-1811Calvary ChristianGAPPS AA
-4.46GIAA AAEdmund Burke Academy84.6%28-1414Georgia ChristianGIAA AA
-7.22GAPPS AALanier Christian71.1%26-179Creekside ChristianGAPPS AA
-20.50GAPPS AASkipstone Academy98.7%35-035Pinecrest AcademyGAPPS AA
-23.99GIAA AFlint River Academy61.6%23-203Memorial DayGIAA A
-26.40GAPPS AACherokee Christian99.4%42-042Rock Springs ChristianGAPPS AA
-33.57GIAA AFullington Academy97.5%37-037Grace ChristianGIAA A