Maxwell First Round projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Nov 11

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
57.59AAAASpalding71.4%26-188TroupAAAA

Nov 12

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
80.62AAAAAAAColquitt County61.1%28-244WaltonAAAAAAA
80.29AAAAACreekside62.9%19-145CoffeeAAAAA
75.02AAAAAAAMill Creek89.9%32-1418West ForsythAAAAAAA
74.83AAAAAAASouth Forsyth53.2%21-210North GwinnettAAAAAAA
71.49AAAAAAALowndes82.7%30-1713HarrisonAAAAAAA
69.41AAAAAAAMarietta86.3%26-719Tift CountyAAAAAAA
69.02AAAAAAAGrayson81.8%27-1314East CowetaAAAAAAA
68.31AAAAAAANorth Cobb96.9%36-729Camden CountyAAAAAAA
67.99AAAAAAAPebblebrook62.4%26-215ParkviewAAAAAAA
66.91AAAAAAACollins Hill99.5%40-040LambertAAAAAAA
65.71AAAAAWarner Robins96.4%35-728JonesboroAAAAA
65.38AAARockmart67.3%21-147Stephens CountyAAA
64.82AAARinggold50.2%21-210Hart CountyAAA
64.70AAAAAAADenmark81.5%21-714Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
64.59AAAAAAAArcher71.5%23-149AlpharettaAAAAAAA
64.42AAAAAAAMcEachern80.4%27-1413South GwinnettAAAAAAA
63.87AAFitzgerald73.4%21-138Dodge CountyAA
63.55AAAAAAACherokee56.9%20-164NorcrossAAAAAAA
62.16AAThomasville88.5%31-1417Washington CountyAA
60.57AAAABenedictine98.9%46-1333Thomas County CentralAAAA
60.25AAAOconee County93.3%29-326AdairsvilleAAA
59.27AAAAAAABrookwood97.6%40-733NewnanAAAAAAA
58.39AAAAAWare County98.8%40-040BannekerAAAAA
58.25AAAAJefferson93.6%28-028Hapeville CharterAAAA
57.78AAAAAJones County82.4%35-2114GriffinAAAAA
57.34AAAAAStarr's Mill67.4%21-147Union GroveAAAAA
56.83AAAAAWhitewater78.2%27-1512OlaAAAAA
56.71AAAAAWoodward Academy97.7%34-034VeteransAAAAA
56.60AAASandy Creek85.1%32-1715Dawson CountyAAA
56.22AAAAADutchtown74.3%24-1410Harris CountyAAAAA
56.08AAAACarver (Columbus)91.9%31-823West LaurensAAAA
55.59AAAAABlessed Trinity82.7%28-1414Southwest DeKalbAAAAA
54.59AAAAFlowery Branch83.8%28-1414MaysAAAA
54.04AAACarver (Atlanta)81.3%27-1413North HallAAA
53.11AAAAACalhoun95.6%35-728DecaturAAAAA
52.82AAAAASt. Pius X89.1%27-720CassAAAAA
52.80AANortheast83.3%27-1314CookAA
52.63AAAABaldwin89.7%28-919LaGrangeAAAA
52.00AAAMonroe Area97.9%40-634North MurrayAAA
51.94AAAAMarist96.4%35-728Cedar ShoalsAAAA
51.49AAAACairo88.6%34-1618New HampsteadAAAA
50.74AAAAAEastside67.9%16-79New ManchesterAAAAA
50.56AAABurke County85.1%32-1715Mary PersonsAAA
49.63AAAThomson94.9%31-031JacksonAAA
49.39AAAAALithia Springs58.0%23-212ApalacheeAAAAA
48.13AAAANorth Oconee96.8%34-034Miller GroveAAAA
47.89AAJeff Davis82.6%25-1015Jefferson CountyAA
46.85AAAARiverdale94.5%28-028Central (Carrollton)AAAA
46.41AAAALuella70.4%20-128Heritage (Ringgold)AAAA
46.30AABleckley County95.2%31-031Early CountyAA
46.04AAAANorthwest Whitfield65.5%27-216Fayette CountyAAAA
45.44AAAAAVilla Rica85.5%31-1516Jackson CountyAAAAA
45.04AAACedar Grove96.3%35-629White CountyAAA
44.70AAACherokee Bluff92.7%30-723Greater Atlanta ChristianAAA
43.10AAFannin County71.2%27-198BremenAA
42.89AAAAAAARoswell98.7%35-035MeadowcreekAAAAAAA
42.78AAACrisp County95.0%32-032HarlemAAA
42.62AASwainsboro93.4%26-026LaneyAA
42.56AAAAPerry98.6%37-037HardawayAAAA
42.43AAElbert County67.4%24-177ColumbiaAA
42.03AAAADougherty93.4%32-725JenkinsAAAA
40.90AAAPeach County92.9%32-725Morgan CountyAAA
39.59AAWestside (Augusta)76.8%23-1310VidaliaAA
39.29AAASoutheast Bulloch77.6%28-1711Long CountyAAA
38.96AAAACedartown98.4%38-038HamptonAAAA
38.81AARabun County99.0%41-041Pace AcademyAA
37.64AAAAACartersville99.7%41-041LithoniaAAAAA
37.58AACallaway92.1%32-923PepperellAA
36.09AAHeard County83.5%24-717Dade CountyAA
35.99AAAAAClarke Central96.5%34-034Maynard JacksonAAAAA
35.73AAAAAAAMilton99.8%48-048DuluthAAAAAAA
35.14AAAAppling County98.8%36-036Johnson (Savannah)AAA
34.99AAPutnam County94.8%34-727East LaurensAA
34.71AALovett81.0%28-1414Union CountyAA
34.49AAALiberty County71.3%21-147Brantley CountyAAA
33.76AAAPierce County99.1%35-035Windsor ForestAAA
32.91AAHaralson County97.3%35-035ChattoogaAA
31.15AAAABainbridge99.4%38-038IslandsAAAA
26.68AASouth Atlanta95.1%34-727Banks CountyAA
21.16GISA AAABethlehem Christian Academy59.0%21-201Bulloch AcademyGISA AAA
16.02GISA AAASouthland Academy72.8%21-138Valwood SchoolGISA AAA
-3.76GAPPS AACalvary Christian82.7%28-1414Skipstone AcademyGAPPS AA
-4.12GAPPS ARock Springs Christian60.5%20-155Flint River AcademyGAPPS A
-12.50GAPPS AHarvester Christian89.5%28-721Central ChristianGAPPS A
-16.67GISA AAJohn Hancock Academy81.1%33-2013Memorial DayGISA AA
-26.37GISA AAPiedmont Academy99.7%42-042Fullington AcademyGISA AA
-29.45GAPPS AAPinecrest Academy99.7%44-044Community ChristianGAPPS AA

Nov 13

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
78.70AAAAAACarrollton55.2%21-201CreekviewAAAAAA
75.34AAAAAARome69.7%28-208Johns CreekAAAAAA
67.96AAAAAACambridge87.5%31-1417South PauldingAAAAAA
65.75AAAAAARiverwood90.5%35-1619Douglas CountyAAAAAA
61.58AAAAAADacula71.5%24-159PopeAAAAAA
60.16AAAAAAAllatoona75.3%21-129ShilohAAAAAA
60.07AAAAAAWestlake92.3%32-923Effingham CountyAAAAAA
57.53AAAAAARichmond Hill54.1%20-182LovejoyAAAAAA
57.45AAAAAAHughes95.3%29-029Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
56.84AAAAAABuford99.6%41-041KellAAAAAA
56.74AAAAAAKennesaw Mountain81.3%26-1313LanierAAAAAA
52.41AAAAAAHouston County84.8%31-1615EvansAAAAAA
48.78A PublicBrooks County90.3%33-1419Montgomery CountyA Public
47.73A PublicWilcox County51.3%20-200Charlton CountyA Public
47.68A PublicDublin55.4%27-243Turner CountyA Public
47.59A PrivateWhitefield Academy58.3%22-202BrookstoneA Private
45.81AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)97.5%34-034Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
45.56A PrivateTattnall Square79.6%28-1711Savannah ChristianA Private
45.31AAAAAABrunswick97.0%33-033TuckerAAAAAA
43.02A PublicIrwin County94.8%31-031Johnson CountyA Public
42.54A PrivateStratford Academy76.4%27-1611Savannah Country DayA Private
41.79A PublicMcIntosh County Academy52.4%19-172Mitchell CountyA Public
40.40A PrivateCalvary Day98.2%34-034Mount de SalesA Private
40.20A PublicManchester84.2%20-020Georgia Military CollegeA Public
40.18A PrivateFirst Presbyterian91.4%27-027AquinasA Private
39.29AAAAAALee County99.7%42-042GrovetownAAAAAA
39.17A PublicEmanuel County Institute72.4%21-138Terrell CountyA Public
39.10A PrivateMount Vernon72.9%23-149Mount Paran ChristianA Private
38.34A PublicTrion79.0%28-1414Social CircleA Public
37.79A PublicBowdon91.3%28-622CommerceA Public
36.01A PublicLincoln County79.2%30-2010Mount Zion (Carroll)A Public
34.61A PrivateHoly Innocents96.6%33-033North Cobb ChristianA Private
34.48A PrivateWesleyan92.2%28-325Christian HeritageA Private
34.12A PrivateAthens Christian54.2%21-210St. FrancisA Private
34.08A PublicChattahoochee County96.6%31-031Warren CountyA Public
34.01A PrivateDarlington91.3%32-1220Hebron ChristianA Private
33.78A PrivateSt. Anne-Pacelli95.8%28-028Landmark ChristianA Private
32.14A PrivateAthens Academy89.0%31-1417Mount Pisgah ChristianA Private
29.79A PublicWashington-Wilkes89.2%31-1417Gordon LeeA Public
27.44A PublicPelham89.2%28-721Screven CountyA Public
26.33A PublicMetter99.4%41-041Seminole CountyA Public
18.31A PublicSchley County99.7%45-045ACE CharterA Public
16.02A PrivateFellowship Christian99.5%45-045George Walton AcademyA Private
14.04A PublicMacon County99.9%49-049Crawford CountyA Public