Savannah Country Day, an 18-point underdog, beat Aquinas 29-28 last week, knocking Aquinas from the ranks of the unbeaten. Several bigger underdogs have won this season, but many of those upsets have come to make more sense retrospectively as the season has played out. According to the computer Maxwell Ratings, here are the 14 upsets that have stood the test of time. That is, Maxwell would pick the upset winner to lose the rematch 70 percent of the time or more. Below are those 14, including SCD-Aquinas, with Maxwell’s projected score of the rematch and the percent chance of the favorite winning.
Oct. 16 - Paulding County d. Douglas County 22-20 (Douglas County 24-0 88.6%)
Oct. 9 - Charlton County d. Clinch County 18-14 (Clinch County 29-13 88.0%)
Oct. 16 - North Hall d. White County 34-31 (White County 34-19 85.1%)
Sep. 18 - Cook d. Irwin County 21-20 (Irwin County 26-12 83.3%)
Sep. 17 - Shiloh d. Denmark 7-0 (Denmark 26-13 81.1%)
Sep. 18 - Schley County d. Wilcox County 20-19 (Wilcox County 24-12 80.7%)
Sep. 25 - Hawkinsville d. Telfair County 25-22 (Telfair County 24-14 78.8%)
Sep. 18 - ECI d. Vidalia 14-8 (Vidalia 24-14 76.0%)
Oct. 23 - Mount de Sales d. Stratford Academy 17-14 (Stratford Academy 24-14 75.9%)
Sep. 25 - Howard d. Central-Macon 37-20 (Central-Macon 27-16 75.7%)
Oct. 9 - South Atlanta d. Pace Academy 22-14 (Pace Academy 21-13 73.7%)
Oct. 30 - Savannah Country Day d. Aquinas 29-28 (Aquinas 30-21 73.4%)
Oct. 30 - Habersham Central d. Lanier 36-15 (Lanier 27-19 70.7%)
Sep. 4 - Sonoraville d. Model 20-14 (Model 24-16 70.2%)
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