The first round of the Class 7A playoffs begin Saturday with 16 games. Here are some observations on the draw to help set the table, followed by the computer Maxwell Ratings’ projected margins of victory.
*The No. 1 team is Buford. The Wolves are heavily favored in their opener against Peachtree Ridge but could face No. 6 Walton, No. 4 Carrollton and No. 2 Colquitt County along the road to the final.
*No. 2 Colquitt County has a friendly draw. The only other ranked team in its quarter is No. 9 Lambert, which has one playoff victory in its history, and that came in 2016.
*The toughest quarter is the third one. No. 3 Mill Creek could face No. 5 North Cobb in the second round.
*Only one road team is favored. That’s Parkview against North Paulding. Parkview finished third in Region 4 but beat its champion, Grayson, and another region champ, North Gwinnett. North Paulding was the runner-up to Carrollton. Parkview is favored by three points.
*The closest game, according to Maxwell, should be Westlake vs. Valdosta. It’s also the only game between top-10 teams. Valdosta is No. 8 and Westlake is No. 10. Westlake’s losses are against No. 4 Carrollton, No. 5 North Cobb and Class 3A No. 1 Cedar Grove, all by 10 points or less. Valdosta started 8-0 but lost consecutive games to Camden County 17-14 and No. 2 Colquitt County 24-6. Valdosta’s average score is 27-8 against the 15th-toughest schedule. Westlake’s average is 35-18 against the 17th-toughest.
*Lowndes’ visit to No. 4 Carrollton is intriguing. Lowndes is in jeopardy of finishing outside the top 10 and failing to win a playoff game for the first time since 2015. The Vikings also could have their first losing season since 1994. Still, it’s Lowndes, and the Vikings may point to their schedule, ranked the toughest in Class 7A by the Maxwell Ratings. Carrollton’s schedule is 31st.
*Camden County, a program that once staged 14 consecutive first-round home games (2000-13), is at home for the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons, an accomplish that seemed unlikely when the Wildcats opened 2022 with a stunning 13-10 loss to Class 2A Columbia. But it’s how you finish, and Camden beat Valdosta 17-14 and Lowndes 48-21 down the stretch to claim Region 1′s No. 2 seed. Camden is at home against East Coweta.
*Collins Hill, the 2021 Class 7A champion, failed to return to the playoffs The Eagles are the first defending champion to miss since Hawkinsville in 2015 and the first in the highest class since Lowndes in 2006. Class 7A was unkind to traditional powers. McEachern, a regular since 2009, and Archer, whose playoff streak dates to 2013, also missed qualifying.
Maxwell projections:
Lambert vs. Wheeler -36
North Gwinnett vs. Dacula -15
Brookwood vs. Harrison -15
Colquitt County vs. Pebblebrook -41
Walton vs. South Forsyth -14
Buford vs. Peachtree Ridge -42
Marietta vs. Newton -7
Carrollton vs. Lowndes -20
Westlake vs. Valdosta -2
Parkview at North Paulding -3
Mill Creek vs. Meadowcreek -38
North Cobb vs. Denmark -22
Camden County vs. East Coweta -8
Grayson vs. Hillgrove -31
Norcross vs. Mountain View -6
Milton vs. Cherokee -41
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