Class 7A blog: A look at each region race with two games left

There are two weeks left in the regular season. Here’s a look at how the region races are playing out in Class 7A. The computer Maxwell Ratings’ projections of this week’s games are included.

Region 1

Colquitt County (8-0, 2-0) plays at Valdosta (8-1, 2-1) on Friday in what almost certainly will decide the region title. Camden County (6-3, 2-1) is idle and potentially could tie for first by beating Lowndes (4-4, 0-2) next week if Valdosta wins, but the three-way tiebreaker (points against the region’s top four teams) favors Valdosta. A region title would be Valdosta’s first since 2016, but after losing to Camden County 17-14 last week, Valdosta is a decided underdog this week. Lowndes needs to win at home this week against Richmond Hill (3-5, 0-2) to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. The most likely finish, according to the Maxwell Ratings, is Colquitt, Valdosta, Camden County, Lowndes.

Colquitt County at Valdosta -22

Lowndes vs Richmond Hill -15

Region 2

Carrollton (9-0, 3-0) has clinched the region title. Westlake plays at East Coweta this week for second place. Both teams are 5-3, 1-1. The most likely finish is Carrollton, Westlake, East Coweta, Pebblebrook.

Carrollton vs Campbell -44

Westlake at East Coweta -5

Region 3

Despite its losing record, Harrison (3-6, 2-1) can clinch the region title with a victory at Marietta (3-5, 2-0). If Marietta wins, it likely will come down to next week’s game between Marietta and North Paulding (5-3, 1-1). McEachern (4-5, 1-2) probably needs to beat Hillgrove next week to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The most likely finish is Marietta, North Paulding, Harrison, McEachern, although this is the most unpredictable region among the eight, with Marietta having just a 53% chance of winning it.

Marietta vs Harrison -16

North Paulding at Hillgrove -14

Region 4

Grayson (7-1, 3-0) is the region’s only team without a region loss and can win the title with a victory over Archer (2-6, 1-2) if Brookwood (4-4, 2-1) loses at Parkview (6-2, 2-1). That’s because Grayson already has a win over Parkview. The Brookwood-Grayson game is next week. The most likely finish is Grayson, Parkview, Brookwood, Newton.

Grayson vs Archer -31

Parkview vs Brookwood -3

Newton at South Gwinnett -1

Region 5

North Cobb (6-2, 3-0) will clinch the region title with a victory over Cherokee (2-6, 1-2) this week or Osborne (5-3, 0-3) next week). The pecking order figures to be North cobb, Walton and Kennesaw Mountain, but Wheeler (5-3, 2-1) can insert a monkey wrench by upsetting Kennesaw Mountain (6-2, 1-2) this week. The most likely finish is North Cobb, Walton, Kennesaw Mountain, Wheeler.

Kennesaw Mountain at Wheeler -24

North Cobb at Cherokee -42

Walton at Osborne -42

Region 6

The big game this week is South Forsyth (5-3, 2-1) at Lambert (8-0, 3-0). If Lambert wins, that sets up a Lambert-Milton game for the region title next week. Milton is 5-3, 3-0. Lambert last won a region title in 2016. The most likely finish is Milton, Lambert, South Forsyth, Denmark.

Lambert vs South Forsyth -12

Milton at Denmark -14

West Forsyth vs Forsyth Central -35

Region 7

Norcross and North Gwinnett, both 6-2, 4-0, are two games ahead of the field and play each other next week. Norcross is given a 61.3% chance of winning the region by Maxwell. The only team out of contention is Berkmar (2-6, 0-5), so all other games this week are important in sorting out seeds No. 3 and No. 4. The most likely finish is Norcross, North Gwinnett, Meadowcreek, Peachtree Ridge.

Berkmar vs Seckinger -8

Meadowcreek vs Duluth -20

Norcross at Peachtree Ridge -21

North Gwinnett vs Discovery -37

Region 8

Buford (8-0, 3-0) can clinch the region with a victory over Mountain View (5-3, 2-1). The most likely finish is Buford, Mill Creek, Collins Mill, Mountain View.

Buford at Mountain View -30

Collins Hill vs Central Gwinnett -29

Mill Creek vs Dacula -44