Call me crazy -- and I’ve been called that before -- but I do not see any chance that a program other than No. 1 Cedar Grove, No. 2 Oconee County, No. 3 Peach County and No. 4 Crisp County wins the 2020-21 state championship in Class 3A.
If there is a path for another team to win the title, I do not see it. Assuming each program is placed where I project them to be by their seedings, the most difficult matchup for any team in the first few rounds will be in the bottom left quadrant where Oconee County could face Peach County in the quarterfinals.
Three of the teams – Cedar Grove, Peach and Oconee – will be (again, assuming the projection) on the left side of the bracket. Crisp, as the likely No. 2 seed from Region 2-3A, will be on the bottom right . Assuming it wins out until the final, Crisp will have to face, in some form, the top seeds from 4-3A (No. 10 Richmond Academy) or 7-3A (North Hall/Cherokee Bluff) or 1-3A (No. 6 Appling).
I see a state championship rematch between Crisp and Cedar Grove as an extremely likely outcome if the seedings hold true.
Now, this is all speculation, but hear me out.
-- No. 1 Cedar Grove (4-0, 3-0)
-- Likely placement in the playoffs*: Top-left quadrant as the No. 1 seed from Region 5.
-- Why the Saints? It is their championship to lose. They have won back-to-back 3A state championships under two different coaches – 2018 under Jimmy Smith and last season under Miguel Patrick. They also won the 2016 championship under Smith. They have not lost a game since Sept. 14, 2019 against then 7A No. 6 McEachern, 29-7. This season, the Saints were delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic and began playing at the beginning of October. Last week, the Saints beat then No. 5 Greater Atlanta Christian 33-6 in dominating fashion. Cedar Grove opened its season defeating Class 7A No. 7 Milton 14-7. If there’s a team to beat in the playoff bracket, it’s Cedar Grove. Cedar Grove could meet No. XX Pierce County in the top-left quadrant of the bracket.
-- No. 2 Oconee County (7-0, 2-0)
-- Likely placement in the playoffs*: Bottom-left quadrant as the No. 1 seed from Region 8.
-- Why the Warriors? Oconee County classed down from 4A last season after nearly winning the state championship in the higher class. It lost to Blessed Trinity 17-14 last season after leading early in the game. Since entering 3A, the Warriors have not really been challenged. Oconee has beaten four ranked programs in the preseason – 4A No. 10 North Oconee (27-7), 5A No. 9 Clarke Central (24-7), 2A No. 5 Thomasville (44-14) and 5A No. 5 Veterans (14-6) before entering region play. Oconee will have to handle the No. 1 seed from Region 2, likely Peach County, before advancing past the quarterfinals.
-- No. 3 Peach County (5-1, 4-0)
-- Likely placement in the playoffs*: Bottom-left quadrant as the No. 1 seed from Region 2.
-- Why the Trojans? Peach might have lost its season-opener against a weak Northside-Warner Robins team (14-7), but since then Peach has been dominant. The Trojans will win their region – barring a state-shaking upset – and will have one major test in the quarterfinals against Oconee County, again, barring any major upset which keeps either program from their respective No. 1 seeds and their quarterfinal berths.
-- No. 4 Crisp County (6-1, 3-1)
-- Likely placement in the playoffs*: Bottom-right quadrant as the No. 2 seed from Region 2.
-- Why the Cougars? After its 14-13 loss to Peach County, the Cougars likely will be the No. 2 seed from the region and will be grouped with the No. 1 seeds from Region 4 (No. 10 Richmond Academy leads at 4-0; Thomson is 3-1; Burke is 2-1) and Region 6, which is led by No. 7 Rockmart and trailed by Adairsville (5-2, 4-1), North Murray (4-2, 4-1) and LaFayette (4-3, 4-1). I don’t see Crisp having much trouble with either, but the playoffs are the playoffs and anything can happen. But I would expect to see Crisp back in the semifinals as the top-program from the right side of the bracket. Crisp County could meet GAC in the bottom-right quadrant of the bracket.
*An assumption of where each team will be placed via their seeding from each respective region. This is speculation and anything can happen between now and the playoffs.
