Class 3A Blog: A breakdown of the Maxwell Playoff Projections

The Maxwell Playoff Projections released Wednesday show where, and how often, each football team in the classification will place out of 1,000,000 playoff simulations.

Cedar Grove, ranked at the top of the 3A poll since the preseason, will open its season at Class 7A No. 7 Milton (2-0) on Friday after COVID-19 delayed the start of football in DeKalb County until October. The Saints are coming off their second consecutive state championship and will have this one pre-region game before entering 5-3A play against Carver-Atlanta next week.

Even without playing a game yet in 2020, Cedar Grove is favorite in the latest Maxwell Playoff Projections to win the state championship nearly half the time (446,638 times) out of 1 million simulations of the season. The Projections have Cedar Grove beating Crisp County in the semifinals and then Peach County in the finals of the most-possible bracket scenario.

Below is the top-10 and what the Week 4 Projections say about the teams possible placement in the simulated playoffs. The first number listed is the depth that team will go in rounds. The second number is the amount of times that team will advance to that round from the quarterfinals through a championship victory.

Here’s how the Top 10 programs break down

1. (1) Cedar Grove (0-0): Depth/Rnd: 4.22             Qtr: 888,909       Semi: 790,427    Finals: 581,846   Champ: 446,638

2. (2) Crisp County (3-0): 3.87      856,379                 640,664                 377,723                 221,811

3. (3) Oconee County (3-0): 2.74                 614,378                 290,019                 124,870                 55,104

4. (4) Peach County (1-1): 3.45    746,961                 485,112                 252,900                 101,407

5. (5) Greater Atlanta Christian (2-0): 2.76              551,960                 326,903                 160,245                 54,084

6. (6) Pierce County (3-0): 3.13    717,337                 333,926                 158,013                 48,297

7. (8) White County (4-0): 2.67    411,868                 225,973                 96,679   24,734

8. (NR) Westminster (Atlanta) (1-0): 1.87               321,395                 126,812                 41,171   9,620

9. (9) Rockmart (2-1): 2.60            450,141                 169,093                 61,556   12,697

10. (7) Sandy Creek (1-2): 1.73    285,640                 103,853                 31,607   6,853