The Braves have become a repository of young pitching. Almost every trade since November has yielded at least one pitcher. Of the Braves’ first 26 picks in this month’s draft, 20 were pitchers.
Given that recent Braves seasons have seen the rise and sudden fall of pitchers Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, is this new corporate direction the equivalent of giving an iPhone to a rhinoceros? The rhino will think it’s pretty but won’t know what to do with it.
The Braves lead the majors in Tommy John surgeries over the past 10 years. According to Jon Roegele’s comprehensive spreadsheet, 33 TJ procedures have been performed on Braves pitchers since 2005. (The total includes pitchers — such as Alex Wood and the just-selected A.J. Minter — who had it before being drafted by the Braves.) Last spring they lost Medlen and Beachy on consecutive days; it was the second TJ for both.
Said the writer Will Carroll, who tracks baseball injuries: “You almost never see a guy having a second Tommy John inside five years, and they had two. … What more sign from the heavens do you need?”
John Hart became president of baseball operations last fall, so we can’t lay the rash of TJ surgeries at his feet. He is, however, the steward who has set the course of this franchise and the pragmatist who calls young arms “currency.” The Braves will never have a 10-man rotation, but some arms could be used to land position players. That’s provided those arms aren’t shredded.
“There’s the old adage,” Hart said. “You need 10 to get three.”
Carroll, whose 2004 book was entitled “Saving The Pitcher,” is unstinting in his criticism of the Braves. He claims they as an organization have failed to embrace modern technology and techniques. “This isn’t just a problem of teaching,” he said. “It’s a systematic and complete breakdown of pitching development system, showing up in injury and development.”
The new Braves, Hart said, are trying “to be as cutting-edge as we can” regarding pitching. They’ve tweaked their organizational approach, which would seem a no-brainer. (When you’ve had 20 TJ surgeries in five years, you need to try something.) They’re testing the biomechanics of pitchers. They’re asking harder questions of their medical staff.
Still, Hart concedes that the tent poles of the development plan are essentially the same as every team’s. The Braves want to monitor usage in the minor leagues.” If a guy has a 32-pitch inning,” Hart said, “he’s not long for the game.”
They also want to be mindful of problematic pitching mechanics. Even so, Hart believes “it’s a misnomer to say you can predict Tommy John by deliveries” and offers the example of Kevin Appier, who had an ungainly motion but worked 16 big-league seasons and never had TJ.
Tommy John surgery — at least Round 1 of it — isn’t a disqualifier. John Smoltz just became the first pitcher elected to the Hall of Fame after TJ: He had it in 2000; he would win 56 games and save 155 more thereafter. Tim Hudson had it in 2008 and won 49 games in the first three full seasons after his return.
Sometimes the surgery provides a opportunity. The Braves mightn’t have pried Max Fried from the Padres and Mike Foltynewicz from the Astros had each not had TJ. They were highly regarded prospects who became value buys. Said Hart: “We’ve acquired some guys who’ve been surgically repaired. If you can take your time with them, you might get 80 percent (of their potential), and you might get 90 percent.”
The nuts-and-bolts question isn’t how to avoid Tommy John. Nobody has that answer. (Tampa Bay went five years between TJ’s for major-league pitchers. Then the Rays lost starters Matt Moore and Alex Cobb in the span of 14 months.) The greater issue is how to develop young pitchers. As Braves pitching coach from 1990 through 2005, Leo Mazzone oversaw the careers of three Hall of Famer. Here’s what he’d do:
“Get them on a program where they’re pitching every fifth day in the minor leagues and they’re always starting. There’d be no innings limit. That should not be in the equation. Innings pitched are your best teacher. Get it so nothing changes and they can work on putting touch on the ball.”
Mazzone has long been a maverick among pitching mavens. He had starters throw twice, as opposed to the usual once, between turns, but they wouldn’t employ what Mazzone calls “max effort.” His belief was that throwing often and getting the ball to move — the “touch” part — was the best therapy. Perhaps it was coincidence that Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux never had Tommy John. Perhaps not.
Fretting over pitchers is as old as baseball itself. An organization can do everything in its power, only to find that the safeguarding of arms is beyond its control. Said Hart: “We’re trying to live by our code, but you have to roll the dice.”
Then this: “We certainly don’t have it figured out. We’re trying.”
